Ukip in the Assembly will not fight for Wales in Berexit aftermath.

 You don't have to be a complete cynic to view the claim that athe cash package announced by Chancellor Philip Hammond today will guarantee continued funding for EU projects in the wake of the Brexit vote. with a bit od suspicion

According to the Wasting Mule

Key projects supporting economic development across the UK are expected to be given the green light, ending uncertainty over their future following the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Assurances set out by the Treasury include:

• All structural and investment fund projects, including agri-environment schemes, signed before Autumn Statement will be fully funded, even when these projects continue beyond the UK’s departure from the EU

• The Treasury will also put in place arrangements for assessing whether to guarantee funding for specific structural and investment fund projects that might be signed after the Autumn Statement, but while we remain a member of the EU;

• Where UK organisations bid directly to the European Commission on a competitive basis for EU funding projects while we are still a member of the EU – for example universities participating in Horizon 2020 – the Treasury will underwrite the payments of such awards, even when specific projects continue beyond the UK’s departure from the EU.

However the guarantee does not cover transformational projects such as the South East Wales Metro.

It seems ro me that this is the bare minimum that we could rightly express given the assurances we given before the Brexir vote.

First Minister Carwyn Jones

“While today’s announcement is a step in the right direction and provides some reassurance to businesses, organisations and communities currently in receipt of EU funding, it doesn’t go far enough. This guarantee only covers about half of the regional funding due to Wales and does not provide the long-term certainty needed – which was promised ahead of the referendum.,,,

Interestingly the only other polticn in Wales who commented was Ukip Assembly group leader Neil Hamilton who  said: 

“For years Ukip has said we have nothing to fear from Brexit and a world of opportunity is waiting for us if we are brave enough to break free. This announcement comes in the same week that Tata steel declared a new, £7m investment in Wales, and surely shows it’s high time Carwyn Jones and his europhile colleagues apologised to the Welsh people for trying to scare them into voting Remain.“Thankfully, the Welsh people are much more canny than Labour thinks and most of us saw through Labour’s false predictions of doom and gloom. I am delighted that Welsh voters have been proven right so quickly.
“I have just visited the Airbus plant in Broughton – a terrific success story built on British engineering excellence.
“It proves we can punch above our weight in global markets and that leaving the EU’s flawed political union is no bar to future economic collaboration.”

It is rather odd to see an opposition spokesman who doesn't  try and find any holes in a Government announcement and this seems to be riddled so far as the future  outlook.

Over the next five years of ths Assembly as we face the reality of the Brexit vite on the Welsh economy outlined by Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood call for bigger borrowing powers for Wales in wake of Brexit vote.

We might even see those Tories in Waled who supported REMAIN criticising aspects of the Brexit with regards the Welsh Economy and funding.

One Party in particular regardless of whose in Number Ten will be arguing that everything is OK even if it is clear we are going to hell in an handcart.

But Ukip will pe in the position of not defending Wales or even fighting for an improved package but claiming Brexit is delivering despite stark evidence .

What do we want in an Assembly . Parties that fight for Wales, Parties that support anything London  tells us what we need, or even a Party that simply  believed their work is done and just waving the Union Jack.

Is Scotland becoming an Independence (SNP) V Unionist (Lab/Tory) battleground.?

There were two council byelections in Scotland Yesterday

Renfrew South and Gallowhill (Lab defence) on Renfrewshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 22, Scottish National Party 15, Liberal Democrat 1, Conservative 1, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,229, 869 (48%)
Scottish National Party 1,258, 629 (43%)
Conservatives 197 (5%)
Liberal Democrats 86 (2%)
Scottish Socialists 90 (2%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 57,119 (65%) LEAVE 31,010 (35%) on a turnout of 69%
Candidates duly nominated: Mark Dougan (Con), Edward Grady (Lab), Jim Paterson (SNP), Ross Stalker (Lib Dem)

Result

First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,309 (48% +5%), Labour 1,012 (37% -11%), Conservative 366 (13% +8%), Liberal Democrat 53 (2% unchanged)
SNP lead of 297 (11%) on a swing of 8% from Lab to SNP
SNP GAIN from Labour on the fourth count

Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 691, 1,374 E (40%)
Scottish National Party 1,624, 265 (37%)
Conservatives 614 (12%)
Liberal Democrats 246 (5%)
Independent 4%
Socialist Labour Party 81 (1%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 51 (1%)
Result
First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,164 (37% unchanged), Labour 1,029 (33% -7%), Conservative 639 (21% +9%), Socialist Labour Party 131 (4% +3%), Green Party 94 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Liberal Democrat 48 (2% -3%)
SNP lead of 135 (4%) on a swing of 3.5% from Lab to SNP
Labour GAIN from SNP on the sixth count

So we have the unusual situation in a seat with a swing from Lab to the SNP and the latter despite having the mist First Preference Vote

This was of course due to STV  and transfer votes. (click to enlarge)

So we see that by the end  Labour gained  the most transferable votes including the votes of the Scottish Socialist Party.

This may reflect the position of the Labour Candidate  but the SNP were still ahead

It was the Tory vote that swung it which prompted as Wings Over Scotland pointed out  some interesting tweets.

Can the Unionist alliance forged in the NO vote in the Scottish Referendum have reached the point that the Tories are celebrating a Labour win over the SNP?

When it comes to ordinary Council Elections under STV  political parties have to anticipate the sort of vote they will get in the election and decide whether to put up one candidate and virtually guarantees a seat  or put up two splitting their vote in the earlier stages  and loosing out on both.

Can the Irvine West result persuade  the Unionist parties of Labour and Tories having an  informal agreement in the number of candidates that could see votes transferred between them in order to defeat the Nationalist.

Are we seeing Scottish Politics divided in to the Nationalist largely represented by the SNP and and a Unionist Bloc comprising of "Sottish" Labour and Conservatives.

Many of us under the First past the Post system are familiar  with the often ridiculous claim of

Vote X get Y

But under SYV n Scotland we may be seeing an argument on the lines of 

Vote Unionist get Tory.

x

Welsh Rural Transport . Welsh Government needs to get its Skates on"

"Anyone seen on a bus after age thirty has been a failure in life. ...

That was the view of a former Socialite Duchess Loelia 
A view alas that may still exit today.

As a comment on a previous blog in which Wales was described as a "Hellhole" points out

The grim picture the dutch visitor describes is not of course the result of failures by the welsh themselves - its the result of decades of exploitation and neglect by the British state. 

The only thing we might be culpable for in "ales is our third world public transport - the Senedd has the powers to re regulate buses in Wales but has chosen to do f*** all about it (presumably this is because Senedd members drive and have no experience of what it's like to need buses to get around).

Leigh Richards

Itis  a thinking among Health planners for instance who believe everyone has access  to a car and therefore you can move maternity  services without the public experiencing any major difficulties.


It has not be helped by thew news that  Rural bus services are being wiped out in many areas of England and Wales due to cuts in subsidies, research indicates.

The cuts are on a par with the controversial Beeching plans of the 60s to scale down the rail network, says a study by the Campaign for Better Transport (CBT).

Councils are reducing expenditure on buses by more than £27m over the coming years as a result of government funding being slashed by £78m since 2010, according to the report.

The latest bad news us  Lewis Coaches is the third bus company in Wales to collapse in the past two months, with 300 jobs lost when Wrexham-based GHA Coaches went into administration in July and Pembrokeshire firm Silcox Coaches, ceasing trading after 134 years in June.

We must ask the question whether  our councils can afford to subsidise  Transport to  the  level Ken Skates Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure and  Lesley Griffiths  Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs should get  together ASAP and respond to what is becoming a crises

We also need to take this further to a UK level and look to allowing Bus companies to reclaim fuel duty on Rural Routes.

It would of course be labelled a "Postcode Lottery" but it might help to save some of the vital Public  transport we need,

GMB "ballot" backs Smith here hoping it was conducted fairer than a previous ones.

The GMB union has backed Owen Smith to become Labour leader, after balloting its membership for their views.

The GMB represents workers on the Trident nuclear weapons programme.

The union is one of the biggest affiliated to the party, with about 641,000 members - and is the biggest to back Mr Smith to date.

So the media have given a fair bit of space to this.

Around 30,000 GMB members are eligible to vote in the leadership election, but the union wanted to gauge the feeling of all its members.

Mr Smith was endorsed by 60% of the 43,419 union members who voted, while 40% supported incumbent Jeremy Corbyn.

Meanwhile, Mr Corbyn has the backing of the UK's biggest union, Unite, among several others.

Tim Roache, GMB General Secretary said: 

“The Labour Party is at a crossroads. I’m under no illusions that we’re living through dangerous political times – the like of which I haven’t seen during my three decades in our movement. It’s time for us to face up to reality.
“GMB balloted our members because this kind of decision shouldn’t be taken from up on high. We’re a democratic organisation here to serve our members’ interests. I was determined that our members would have their say. And they’ve had it.
“I’ll proudly campaign alongside Owen in the coming weeks and months to deliver on his pledges to end the public sector pay freeze, to support defence workers, to invest in health and industry, and to build an industrial strategy – these are bread and butter issues for the people I represent.
“But we can only tackle them if we’re in government. That’s the end game and I hope whatever the final result, the Labour Party will unite when all this is over. GMB members cannot afford for Labour to be talking to itself in a bubble for the next five years while the Tories run riot through our rights at work, our public services and our communities.”

 Much will be made of the "democratic" GMB  consulting its members by Balot as opposed to those who are backing Corbyn .

However I hope the GMBU conducted thir consultation a liitle more carefully than they did in 2010 when they they were was accused  of breaching the spirit of the rules surrounding the Labour leadership vote by sending out ballot papers in packages calling for union members to endorse Ed Milliband 

The GMB sent its 700,000 members ballot papers within a larger envelope featuring Ed Miliband's picture. Party rules say you cannot include in the ballot envelope any literature backing a candidate.

 So how did the Union  not break the Rules?

It seems that the

 GMB stuck to the guidance: the ballot envelopes were in smaller envelopes, put together and sealed by the Electoral Reform Society – which oversaw the Labour leadership contest – before being delivered to the mailing depot where the GMB also watched over their loading into a larger envelope that was then sent out to members.
The union, again within the rules, put its endorsement for Ed Milibandon the front of the package sent to all members which included a magazine with his picture on the front and a letter from the leader of the GMB, Paul Kenny, explaining the union's endorsement of the younger Miliband brother.

The GMB vote was crucial in the close vote between Ed Milliband  and his brother David.

The rules have changed since then and there is mow emphasis on one member one vote.

But surely in this modern age if the Unions want to endorse a candidate they  should seek to seek the views of their members?

Or perhaps its time the Unions severs the ties with a party  that has gone against the interest of their members time and time again' Keeping much of the Anti-Union Legislation passed by the Thatcher government.

When the Unions block vote kept the far left in check they were very welcome by the Parliamentary Leadership , However Blair and the Parliament Party around him were delighted to scrap it once they thought they are conquered even the centre left.

Maybe they now want the help Unions like the GMB again,  Alas other Union views may not be so welcome.

Dutch Vistor sees Wales as a "Hellhole".

Wales Online have an article which has the headline

This Dutch internet user has a hilariously exaggerated view of Wales

Only I didn't fond itself hiariousl .

Posting on a Reddit thread the user said the country had "no job prospects, poor people everywhere, poorly educated/less developed people all around you and no future prospects what so ever."

Asked to justify his post calling Wales a "hellhole", he wrote: "I have been to Wales once and what I saw there was terrible. Unemployed people, people shopping in cloathes (sic) that looked like they were 20 years old and were very worn down. Many cars that were 20 years or older, and not the classic cars, realy (sic) ragged down cars that would be taken off the road anywhere else in north west Europe. Centuries old infrastructure, very porely (sic) maintained, with in contrast, some new developments (subsidised by the EU regional development fund, shockingly not a UK development fund btw).
"People living in poorly maintained houses and I saw also a lot of poorly maintained sidewalks. I was told there that the bus connections were only barely there, and were downsized year after year. I saw not much economic activity at all. The only plus side of Wales were (sic) the mountains. Always interesting for me as a Dutch person.
"Wales, a hellhole to live in."

Wales Online seem to miss the point of tha article  because  they gain some relif that  People have been quick to correct the obviously misled Internet user, describing his claims as a "massive exaggeration" and "silly".

One person wrote: 

"Underdeveloped = Lush green land, fields, mountains, nature reserves, stunning clifftop views just a stones throw away from the capital city.
"If that's a hellhole, that's the kind of hellhole I like to live in."
Another said: "Definitely never been to Wales."

People have been quick to correct the obviously misled Internet user, describing his claims as a "massive exaggeration" and "silly".

 Another wrote 

 I will not apologise for the continued existence of Offa's Dyke, nor Devil's Bridge, or Cardiff Castle," .

The point is it was the scenery  of our Nation or our infrastructure  but the poverty of our people.


Take a lok at the Map pf the pprests parts of Europe




We rank with Eastern Europe in the poverty league where the Netherlands are one of the richest.


The Dutch writer could be talking about a Third World Nation  an image that years of rule from Westminster either by the Tories  or Labour.

Wales Online may think its hilarious  for a visitor  to see us in this way but I don't.

To misquote Thomas Paine "they praise the feathers but ignore the dying bird."

Is Andrew RT Davies playing Pollyanna's "Glad Game",

One of the problems with being in opposition to the Tories  or any other party is that ,when it comes to the economy for instance you find yourselves hoping they are right and things will get better.

Its can be seen in 

Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies insistence that  that the country can still expect a “surplus” when it leaves the European Union and pledged to fight “tooth and nail” to ensure Wales gets its share of a “post-Brexit dividend”.
In the run-up to the June 23 referendum Mr Davies said there was a “solid guarantee that Welsh farmers would continue to receive at least as much in terms of support”.

Of course we  all Hope he's right but the omens are not good ;


Welsh  Secretary of State  Alun Cairns said:

 “[Simply] replacing what are currently EU funds as one source with another source from Westminster misses the point: the EU referendum sent out a number of messages; those areas that receive most EU funds were the areas, sadly, that voted strongest to leave the European Union. We need to look at models of regional aid in a different way.”

In a  question for the First Minister, Andrew RT Davies  said: 

“Will he guarantee that if that money comes over to Wales he will pass it on to Welsh farmers or will he just put it into the mix and ultimately squander it like Welsh Labour have squandered the dividends that they’ve had since 1999 when devolution began?”Adamant that the country can expect more cash when it leaves the EU, he said: “The key is to unlock that door and get that money back to Wales.”

Andrew RT   however seems to think others shield have prepared for a more difficult outcome as Borthlas  recently posted

According to Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Assembly group of the Conservatives in Wales, the Labour First Minister, Carwyn Jones, failed to do any planning at all in anticipation of a vote to leave the EU. On that point of fact, he’s absolutely right. I’m rather less certain about the veracity of his assertion that “… the UK Governmen tndertook detailed planning”; the evidence in support of that is not exactly obvious. They still don’t really seem to know what to do next.

If the UK undertook detailed planning, maybe its about time they let us know what it is.

Mr  Davies  seems be rather like Pollyanna  whose philosophy of life centres on what she calls "The Glad Game," an optimistic and positive attitude she learned from her father. The game consists of finding something to be glad about in every situation, no matter how bleak it may be.'t need to use them!"

I always found her an irritating  brat

Mr Davies will probably accuse those who foresee a a recession in the wake of BREXIT wiping out any npney that the UK will save  from payments to the EU as "Talking the Country Down"

Lets face it Brexit is going to happen and I hop for everyones sake MR Davies is right,. But the Omen are not good and whilst there will probably be some bounce back. Once it becomes cleat that we are leaving and the enormity of forging Trade Agreements that are favourable to us . I believe that the UK economy takes a dive.

And when this happens you can bet your bottom dollar (worth more than the £) Wales will suffer more than other parts of the UK.

Carwyn Jones or Kezia Dugdale. Who would make the dumbest First Minister?

As Labour continues down the road in which the Parliamentary Party are prepared to commit Hari Kari rather than actually even remotely listen to thor membership recent events in Scotland show how ridiculous a Party that refuses to implement polcies voted on by his membership i/

Last November the Scottish Labour party delegates backed a vote to scrap the UK's Trident nuclear missile system, which is based at Faslane naval base on the Clyde.

A motion at the party's conference in Perth calling for the system not to be renewed was supported by an overwhelming majority.

Both party members and unions voted 70% in favour of the motion.

It means Labour now holds different positions on the issue north and south of the border.

But only  the other day the Labour Leader in Scotland  Kezia Dugdale tweeted

She has since deleted it 

But what it shows is that even in Scotland  where it has lost all but one of its MPs and was pushed into third in the Scottish Parliamentary Elections the party is incapable of listing to ordinary members.

\Mind you we can only wonder what the membership  so called Welsh Labour Party . Party think about Trident .

Are they allowed a view  on anything 

Or are they conferences really only tallies where they just list and listen to speeches from AM's and a few MPs who can bother to attend.

We know what the supposed leader of "Welsh" Labour"  thinks

Back in  2012 Labour B First Minister Carwyn Jones has said Britain's nuclear-armed submarines would be "more than welcome" in Wales if they left Scotland,

He said: 

"I did notice the Scottish government no longer wishes to have the nuclear submarine base at Faslane, it no longer wishes to house the UK naval nuclear fleet.
"There will be more than a welcome for that fleet and those jobs in Milford Haven."

It is believed that at least two Cabinet members, Finance Minister Jane Hutt and John Griffiths, were privately unhappy with Mr Jones’ support for Trident, while five Labour MPs – including  the then Martin Caton of Gower and Paul Flynn of Newport West – signed a motion in Parliament condemning the move.

But if there was any reaction from Welsh members especially those who have been long time supporters of CND then it did not reach my eyes or ears.

The point is as Scotland shows even if Labour appeared to be able to form a distinct policy in Wales . The leadership here and their Masters in London will ignore it.

The really sad thing is that they may well have a Party Leader who represents the view of the majority of the Party, But as Scotland shows the real power will be still elsewhere among the Blarites who still think victory lies in courting "Middle England" and being little more than Red Tories.