The Tanned One Jumps.

The news from the Western Mail is that the "The Tanned one" Peter Hain has resigned as Shadow Welsh Secretary to campaign for the building of a Severn Barrage,.

This has been triumphant by the "Mule" as an exclusive but since Hain claims he told Labour Ed Miliband of his plans Last Christmas it couldn't have been mush of a secret in the Westminster Bubble.

Indeed inside and outside f Westminster  has been speculation that since the  vote in the Autumn party conference to end party elections to the shadow cabinet  The Labour leader, now has a free hand in selecting  his Shadow Cabinet and  means that Miliband is no longer faced with having only one elected member of the Shadow Cabinet from a Welsh Constituency as often happened to offer the position as shadow Welsh Secretary which lets face is  is not one of those jobs desired by those seeking a position at the Cabinet Table.

It is highly likely that Miliband was already eyeing up Ogmore MP Huw Irranca-Davies and Cardiff West 's Kevin Brennan for the job or even Pontypridd new boy Owen Smith (but this would be a rapid promotion )

My bet however unless he gets a  job in the Shadow Cabinet of higher status (basically anyone)  would be Rhondda's Chris Bryant.

But given the standard of most Labour MPs's its a small pool of real talent

Who ever it is don't expect any move to call for greater powers for the Assembly or any measures that might weaken the Welsh Secretary's position even if its the hapless Cheryl Gillian (who's probably next to go). They will be looking for the time when they achieve that position.

So it seems that Hain decided to jump before he was pushed and it is interesting that the Mule has not speculated on it. but it rapidly becoming little more than  a "Cheer Sheet" for Labour so no surprises.

Indeed the exclusive is no more than a lazy rehash of the press release from Hain's Office.

Although Hain said he wanted to contribute more on wider policy issues, notably Africa, it is strange that he doesn't see the position of Shadow Cabinet Secretary as the ideal position to fight for the Severn Barrage.

Hain will probably try and establish himself as leading Welsh Labour Statesmen until his retirement from the Commons and he says goodbye to Wales and Neath to seek a lucrative future elsewhere.

The sad thing is that Hain's departure from the Shadow Cabinet and Gillian's likely on delayed the fact Cameron can't reshuffle until after Leveson's inquiry ends (no point in reshuffling if Leveson then prompts resignations) . and Cameron has even a smaller pool of Welsh MP's of quality than Labour.

The fact is whoever gets to be Secretary for State in the future  soon will not make a jolt of difference to Wales  as both  whether Labour at Tory Welsh Secretary . The former view the Nation  as a vote machine and the latter as a nuisance,.and the person representing Wales in the Cabinet (or rather the other way round  who will be eagerly  for promotion to a Cabinet post with staus will spend most of the time trying to give the impression they are are of importance wakes  and resitting any moves that will undermine this.

Welsh is still not equal when it comes to car parking.

I don't drive but  I am concerned with the powers over private companies, who have obtained a Quasi- Legal  position in which they are allowed to fine the public.and the the fact that some unscrupulous companies basically used this as as form of extortion.

In Scotland, wheel-clamping on private land is illegal. It was banned by the case of Black v Carmichael 1992 SCCR 709, when wheel-clamping was found to constitute extortion and theft.

In England and Wales, wheel-clampers operating on private land must be individually licensed by the Security Industry Authority. Operating in such circumstances without a valid license, or in breach of its conditions (which include displaying ID at all times), is a criminal offence under the Private Security Industry Act 2001. 

However I tend to agree that there should be some way of controlling those who feel that they can park any where irrespective of how it affects their fellow motorists.

The following company makes a reasonable request on those parking at the Glamorgan Retail Park ,Talbot Green , Rhondda Cynon Taf and are clearly working legitimately(Well apart from one point).

The Notices are large and clearly displayed and I see no argument about them being not noticed by motorist parking there.

However there is one problem . The notices are in English only . They contain not one word of Welsh and since they are are acting in a manner that results in legally fining members of the public. Does this not break the spirit of the Welsh Language Act and therefore are they truly legitimate?

The question is further compounded by the fact that thee bottom of the notice clearly states that the company is registered in England.

I

In December 2011 Dyfed Edwards the leader of the Plaid group on Gwynedd councillor was quoted as  delighted an operator has agreed to make parking fine notifications available in the Welsh language after a 12-month campaign.accepted he left his car in a non-parking area at Bangor railway station in November 2010.

But he refused to pay the fine until the notice was issued in Welsh.

In a letter to the councillor, NCP said future notices would be available in Welsh upon written request. But why should anyone in Wales request to use their language?

So Dyfed victory was only partial.

I do not know whether the sign in Gwynedd was bilingual (though I suspect it may have been) but it is clear that Welsh is not equal within the Law when those who are given the powers to work within this quasi legal framework are allowed to ignore this.

There is a need to strengthen the Welsh Language act in this respect and it shows also the need for the assembly to have the same powers as Scotland to ensure that we have themeans to relegate not only the use of the Welsh language but if we want to relegate those who are acting in this quasi-legal capacity.

The Elections in Scotland : SNP still lead.

The results for the local Election have been portrayed by Labour and the  the media as a draw between the Labour and the SNP

And if you look at the BBC summary for instance then it would appear so and that Labour actually gained one more seat than the SNP

ouncil results

Party	Councils		Councillors
	Total	+/-	Total	+/-
SNP	2	2	424	+57
LAB	4	2	394	+58
CON	0	0	115	-16
LD	0	0	71	-80
OTH	3	0	219	-18
NOC	23	-4

However these gains and losses were based on the seats just before the election and included By-election wins and defections.

If we look at the results in 2007 and compare them with that of 2012

 Summary of the 3 May 2007 Scottish council election results^[4]

Parties		First-Preference Votes[5]	Votes %	+/-	Councillors	Net Gain/Loss
	Labour	590,085	28.1	-4.5%	348	-161
	SNP	585,885	27.9	+3.8%	363	+182
	Conservative	327,591	15.6	+0.5%	143	+21
	Liberal Democrats	266,693	12.7	-1.8%	166	-9
	Independent	228,894	10.9	+0.8%	192	-38
	Other	102,897	4.9	+1.3%	10[6]	+6
Total		2,099,945			1,222

[edit]

e • d Summary of the 3 May 2012 Scottish council election results^[4]

Parties		First-Preference Votes[5]	Votes %	+/-	Councillors	Net Gain/Loss
	SNP	502,201	32.32%	+4.46%	424	+61
	Labour	487,884	31.39%	+3.24%	394	+46
	Conservative	206,856	13.31%	-2.26%	115	-28
	Liberal Democrats	102,399	6.59%	-6.10%	71	-95
	Green	34,252	2.20%	+0.16%	14	+6
	Independent	184,329	11.86%	+0.98%	194	+2
	Other	36,055	2.32%	+0.9%	11	+1
Total					1,223

The results show the were the biggest winners and that is during their second term in Holyrood.

This was true of Glasgow which was portrayed as labour victory and and a gain in seats where in fact they actually lost one seat overall when the SNP gained 5.

This time however it must be noted that both Parties won by taking votes off others and they may not be actually taking many from each other.

After spectacular gains in 2007 there still no sign of the SNP bandwagon going into reverse and in reality where Labour made advances they should have been doing better and regained much more territory . Though admittedly STV does make that harder.

Scotland is fast becoming a two party system and the Liberal Democrats are joining the Tories as a minor Party and if it seemed they call any further just one week after the election they suffered their first defection when a Ross-shire councillor Isabelle Campbell defected from the Liberal Democrats to the Independents  after being elected in the local elections or the Highland Council and who may be regretting this as the SNP,Labour and LibDems have formed an administration ousting her new Independent colleagues.

This may be some kind of record and if I was running the LibDems  on the Highland council. I would bill her for the cost of running her election campaign.

Some good Councillors lost on Thursday irrespective of Party.

One of the sad things about Local Elections is that because of because of a reaction against Westminster politics or council polices , we see often very good councillors lose their seats.Sometimes by people who have no real connection with the ward and who will  not put in the hard work that their predecessor had.

I remember a newly elected Plaid Councillor, in the 1980's who told me that his first duty  was to arrange a funeral for a family with learning difficulties. It was a duty he felt rather than he was obliged to carry out . He was an example of  those who feel that they represent the people of their wards first and they should do their utmost to help them.

Last Thursday he lost his seat As did a number of other councillors who felt the same way.Whether they were Plaid, LiberalDemocrat,Independent and yes even Conservatives.

And yes  previously the same thing had happened to excellent Labour councillors who suffered the backlash when they were in power in the 13 years after 1997.

For voters even for those who support an other political party . there is often dilemma between voting for the person who is best to serve and reacting against Westminster or the policies of that council ,.

I faced the dilemma in the Beddau ward . The Labour candidate Richard Yeo had won the seat in a byelection in three way fight between Labour Plaid and an Independent only to lose it a year later to the Independent when there was no Plaid candidate.

Since then he has nursed the ward and looked like the best candidate. Luckily for me I was able to realise he was going to win this time and could safely vote Plaid. But if I had thought he was going to be beaten by the Independent I may have voted for him. and would have if there was no Plaid

And if I lived in the Trealaw ward . Where the new Labour Councillor Joy Rosser held the seat comfortably what would I have done?

Because I Have known and liked Joy for a number of years her husband Paul is one of my favourite musicians and over 10 years ago with a group of other friends, we climbed Ben Nevis together  and believe me you get to know people going up Britain's Highest mountain..

So in Trealw even if they looked like they could win. I would have probably have voted for Joy unless I really knew the Plaid candidate and he or she was equally capable.

But that's the problem with an electoral system . If we had STV I could vote firstly for the Party I want but at the same time give my second vote to someone I thought would be a good councillor from another Party

All over Wales people will be finding that the councillor who would respond to their complaints vigorously is no longer there. We must ensure that we don't lose our best because we don't like the Party they represent at the time.

Labour did win big and How!

I think I am not the only one who is totally  staggered by the extent of the Labour gains in Wales

 For the record my predictions which were  pretty generous were well of the mark

                   2008         Prediction      Actual     
Lab             353           430 -460      579 
Con            172           150-190        105           
Plaid           206           180-220        158
LibDem      153            70 -  90         71
Others        380           320 - 340       313


What can the Parties Take out of this (some of the gains and losses may differ from 2008 because of by-elections and defections)


Labour


Basically  blew every other Party  out of the water . The only party to make gains throughout Wales.Whithgains of 231 new councillors and control of 10. Now control all Welsh major cities and have regained their total dominance in the Industrial Valleys. In a year or two they may lose some By-elections but can expect to keep their dominance a least until Labour are in government in Westminster and it will be their turn to be punished.


Plaid 


Although they may regain Gwynedd with one seat still outstanding  a bad night . The loss of  41 seats in some areas this may have  was predictable to some  but they lost heavily in Rhondda Cynon Taf and Caerphilly  fell back in Neath Port Talbot and failed to advance in Carmarthen and Ceredegion (where they had hopes of gaining control).. Must take some comfort in retaining a foothold in Cardiff,Torfaen and Wrexham where they could have lost all their councillors. Unlike the SNP in Scotland Plaid can't pick up on the disgruntled LibDem vote  Leader Leanne Wood whose election failed to create a bounce (where it may have been to early anyway). Talks of rebuilding the party . I can't see this involving going into coalition with Labour in the Assembly.


Conservatives

In some ways the Party despite a loss of 61 seats may take some comfort of being here before in mid term elections and the losses of the Liberal Democrats could see them emerging as the major opposition to Labour in places like Cardiff. However this may be not for over decade and the whole political spectram in Wales may have changed to one of devolving increasing powers to Wales . Ehich could see them being frozen out as they are in Scotland.


Liberal Democrats 


The party may have been bracing them selves for losses but loosing 66 must be a blow and finding themselves  unable to claim to be the largest Party in any council in Wales and being wiped out in places like Merthyr where they had a huge swing from Labour in the 2010 General election means they really a small party in Wales..
They have enough councillors left in Cardiff and Swansea through their "Pavement politics" . to ensure a presence   but  out side these two are they  little more than a rump and they may not be sitting at the top table for a very long time


Others


The 64 losses listed as other saw largely the end of the Peoples Voice scenario except in Gwynedd were Llais Gwynedd have a relatively strong showing.The Independents still have a strong effect in parts of Wales . But they may it difficult to ward of the increasing encroachment of party politics where maybe in the future they will be only the largest group in Powys and Pembrokeshire .

UKIP increased their councillors to 2 in Wales.But sadly unlike Scotland and England where they did well we still have no Green Councillors.

Outside Wales the Greens and Respect were the only other parties celebrating in England and both Labour and the SNP did well in Scotland where it fast becoming a two party contest.

Local government in Wales seems to have returned to the 60's where Labour dominance sees them running virtual fiefdoms anyone remembering those days where cronyism and nepotism was the order of the day can only hope that the new intake will resist this and try to remember they serve the electorate and not themselves or the party if not they will start to lose seats in a byelection and see a revival of some of their opponents when they have stopped licking their wounds..

Labour set to win big tomorrow.

The Polls are looking good for Labour as we approach tomorrow's Local Government election . There's an excellent  analysis on Red Dragon White Bull. Although I don't think the poll truly reflects voting intentions in the local elections they probably reflect the general position of the parties in Westminster and Assembly intentions and these may have had some influence on those polled when asked about their intentions for their local council.

But it does look like it will be a goodnight for Labour ans Good night  for the Liberal Democrat's in particular..

Westminster politics always have a influence on local contests and whilst  there have been complaints from other Parties over their "Send Cameron and Clegg" message . Labour suffered heavily in 2008 and 2004 from the same message being sent to their then Government and lost heavily. So it no wonder they can expect to recover this Time. The only question is by how much.

The polls suggest that they will once again exert their political government  over Welsh councils and we can only hope that this does not result in the arrogance and contempt for the electorate  that they have exerted in the past.

I expect Labour to win overall control of Caerphilly, Bridgend,Blaenau Gwent , Torfaen,Newport,Flinttshire and Swansea  to go alongside Neat Port Talbot and Rhondda Cynon Taf and to come just short in Merthyr, Wrexham  and Cardiff. which will result in intense negotiations.

So its prediction time

The only other parties to control  a council will be the Tories (Monmouth) and Plaid (Gwynedd and possibly Cereredigion).

In other councils

Carmarthen may see Plaid as the largest Party but will probably be denied power by a Independent Labour coalition.

Wrexham will see Labour as the largest Party but may be denied leadership pf the council


Conwy will remain a council with no overall control though it may be Tory-Independent this time.

Labour may be the Largest Party on the Vale of Glamorgan and may seek coalition with Plaid.

Powys Denbighshire and Pembrokeshire will be largely unchanged . Though there may actual be some Tory gains from Independents..

The final result may be that in Total number of Councillors  will be difficult to predict and I've chickened out of making a exact prediction so have gone for a range but I believe they will be between.

                   2008         2012

Lab             353           430 -460
Con            172           150-190
Plaid           206           180-220
LibDem      153            70 -  90
Others        380           320 - 340

Elections Monmouthshire - Wrexham

*Please note because of some late changes in affiliations the actual allocation of numbers of councillors may differ by a few.seats


*Monmouthshire (43)
Current composition

Con 26 Lab 7 LibDem 4 Independent 5 Plaid 1.

The Conservatives would have to have a very bad night to lose control of this council and with an unlikely LibDem challenge in some wards it would be a very good night for Labour if they were to reduce the Tories to below the 22 needed for overall control.

*Neath Port Talbot (64)

Current composition

Lab 39 Plaid 11 Independents 6 LibDem 3 Social Democrat 3 NPT Independents 2

One of two councils in Wales which Labour has overall control and Little change expected here with the opposition coming from Plaid in the North and others in the South . Plaid may pick up a few seats but I expect Labour to strengthen their grip.

*Pembrokeshire (60)

Current composition

Independents 39 Con 5 Lab 5 Plaid 5 Unaffiliated 6.

Despite a major Conservative push it is unlikely anyone will make spectacular gains. Local difficulties may see some change in personnel but the Independents should remain in control.

*Newport .(50)

Lab21 Con 18 LibDem 9 Independent 2

Again Labour must be aiming to gain control of this council needing a net gain of 5 seats which should be easily obtaiable on current opinion polls. Fail here and it would be a bad night for Labour.

*Powys (73)

Current composition

Powys Independent Alliance 31  The Shires Independent Group 13 LibDems 13 Con 10 Lab 5 Plaid 1.

No change here . The conservatives won 10 seats last time and should aim to establish themselves in this county but may find that "National" politics may work against them. But it will be largely local issues and personalities at play here.

*Rhondda Cynon Taf (75)

Current composition

Lab 46 Plaid 18 Independents 8 Lobdem 3 Con 1.

The main battle here is between Labour and Plaid  who may make some gains on top of relevations about the number of jobs the Labour leader has. But expect Labour to remain fuly in charge after May 3rd.

*Swansea (72)

Current composition

Lab 27 LibDem 24 Independents 7 Indpendents Swansea 6 Con 4 Communities of Swansea 3 Plaid 1

Oh boy what a council  the current ruling group(Libdem Independent Plaid) look like a disaster the Conservatives are at war with each other and Labour still don't seem to have regained the trust of the Public.  On paper Labour should win the seats necessary to win control of their former fiefdom. But don't bet on it 

*Torfaen (44)

Lab 18 Independent 14 Con Peoples Voice 3 Plaid Cymru 2 Libdem 2

As with Blaenau Gwent the demise of Peoples Voice will probably mean that Labour  win that this council needing to win only 5 seats.

*Wrexham (52)

LibDem 11 Lab 13  Democratic Independents 7 Wrexham Independents 8 Conservatives  5  Independent  4 Plaid 3.

A council that Labour would seek to win from this mismatch  of groupings.. But as in Merthyr  Wrexham has developed an liking to diversity . It may be only the Liberal Democrats who are truly vulnerable here.

Isles of Anglesey

No Elections.

One aspect that may affect the election is the weather. The current heavy rain must have put a literal dampener on campaigning which should help incumbent councillors if it continues intoThursday . I n the past  the main losers would provably  Labour who may have a problem getting those waivering towards them out.. However the increase in the use of Postal votes means that these can be vital on a day when poor weather puts those who vote at polling stations off,