Three Wales, Two Wales, One Wales?

It seems that National Left predictions on the referendum  results made in January was close .Heres what I predicted

The Yes campaign will be won a though with less than 50% voting. there will be a Yes majority in Cardiff. Only Monmouth, Newport and Flint will vote No.

As I said close but alas  no cigar. Though I'm delighted to be wrong.

However there is a clear difference in the result for 2011 and 1997 and lets not forget the 1979 referendum which was rejected by every area of Wales by 79.7% to 20.3%

It may be possible that Wales has moved on from the "Three Wales Model " proposed by Dennis. Balsom in 1987.In this the  regions were the Welsh-speaking heartland of the north and west, Y Fro Gymraeg; a consciously Welsh - but not Welsh-speaking - 'Welsh Wales' in the South Wales Valleys; and a more ambivalent 'British Wales' making up the remainder, largely in the east and along the south coast.

I've bee searching  for a map of this model (I've mislaid my copy of the original article)but it doesn't seem to be on line  because it resembles so much the vote in the 1997 referendum Here where Y fro Cymraeg and Welsh Wales voted Yes and British Wales voted No.(Green-Yes Red-No.

But the Map does show the then divide in Wales and if we were to reproduce the Map for 2011 only Monmouthshire would be Red today .

It would be wrong to say this a permanent and decisive change but it does show that attitudes may be changing.and er may well have moved on from Dennis Balsoms Model though I think we are some distance from One wales. With polls suggesting that the majority of people are in favour of devolving policing and criminal justice together with the ability to vary taxes it seems that devolution is winning the hearts of the people.

The next assembly will see the first Laws for the whole of Wales made passed solely in Wales and it will be interesting to see the Party Manifesto's for the May elections to see if there are any Bold and exciting proposalscomining from the parties. I suspect a degree of timidity however from them all.

I would like to put a challenge to every candidate to propose in their main official leaflet. One law  the Assembly can pass they would like to see.

Perhaps these can then be placed on line for public comment and approval. The top one could then become the first Law drafted by  the New Assembly and the New Wales.

Time to take the stabalisers of the Bike.

Today the people of Wales can make a decision that will see the Assembly make laws in those regions where power has been dissolved to it.

To my mind to it this must result in a resounding Yes vote. I believe the arguments put forward by the supporters of True Wales, have not even reached  a level where they could be seriously debated against.

Indeed the only sensible questioning of the value of the new proposals came from the Jaxxlander team.

If you need to know what we can do with the new powers then consider the latest legislation past by the assembly (after Westminster agreed) requiring developers to fit a sprinkler system in all new homes. .Wales has become leaders in Europe on this

Ann Jones, Vale of Clwyd aAsembly member, introduced the legislation after winning a members’ ballot, but it took three years to pass, because it had to be approved by Westminster Politicians

It will be many years before the true life saving value of this will emerge and Ann Jones may not be around in the Assembly to receive the credit she deserves, but this shows that we can pass legislation  that leads the way not only on in the UK but in the World .

Although I accept the argument that rushed laws are bad laws 3 years to pass legislation almost the life of the Assembly is far too long.

Not for one moment do I believe that the Assembly will be perfect in it's Law making and I'm sure they wil pass laws tat I will oppose.

but this is what democracy is and It time we in wales behave like a democracy and began to take responsibility for our own actions.

So say YES today and lets take our country forward.

Ireland may abolish it's second Chamber. So does Wales need one?

One of True Wale's argument against further powers is the question of scrutiny, as the Assembly is Unicameral. The idea however that we need a second chamber to do this is a common one even among proponents of Independence.However  it is interesting therefore that the new Fine Gael government in Ireland will advocates the abolition of the "Seanad" and it said that it will hold a referendum on 'Constitution Day', in which voters will decide on the proposal, within 12 months of coming to office.It's likely coalition partners the Irish  Labour party too would like to see the Seanad abolished.

'Labour believes that a nation of our size, scale and composition only needs one strong, single chamber,' its manifesto said'.

It will be interesting to see the debate in Ireland over the next few months this but it does show that it is possible to consider passing laws without the benefit (or hindrance) of a second chamber and mature democratic parties will consider this.

Personally I believe that if  the committee structures set up within the Assembly are vigorous and have a independent mandate.Then we also, considering  the size of our Nation and of course the actual limit of the law making powers that we will have in the event of a Yes vote on Thursday, really do not need an unelected or even elected second chamber to scrutinise law making.Certainly not  at this time.And certainly do not need politicians in Westminster to act as one.

English Rugby Board may veto Gatlands selection against Ireland.

Welsh Rugby coach Warren Gatland has called for the end to the situation where he has to send his proposed Team selection to the English Rugby Board for approval.

Under the current rules he explained I can draw up my team but must send it off to the ERU, who can make changes. They don't often do so but it takes time and they have vetoed players recently they would not let me select George North because they felt he should be playing for England. And many here feel we would  have won the Grand Slam in 2005 and 2008 if Shane Williams  had been allowed to play but they felt he was too small for International Rugby.

A fan  who give his name as glynbeddau said"Everyone in wales has views on the selection of the Welsh team and quite frankly even when the ERU have passed the Welsh Coach's  selection intact, It wasn't always the side I would have picked: But the current situation is ludicrous and its about time the manager made his own choice of the side he would like".

Not every one agrees however Rachel  from Gwent said. We are quite happy with the current situation we do not believe any Team Coach in Wales will ever be capable  of selecting any National side. Far better for it to be picked by what former England Captain called "57 old Farts".

Some went even further "Why have a Welsh side at all?"said John from UKIP . We believe there should be only a UK side and the Welsh and Scottish side should be disbanded and completely run by the ERU.

Glynbeddau added " if we were ever allowed to vote on the issue I suppose the people of Wales would clearly like the selection of the Welsh Team to be made (for good or bad)  by the current Coach . Of course if he gets it wrong we can always get a new Coach we have very little influence  amongst the "57 old Farts".

R.T.E. Exit Poll

R.T.E have published the results of an exit poll for the Irish Election.

3,500 voters were interviewed after they had cast their ballots  . The results of the poll is.shown here.

 Fianna Fáil

Results were accurate to within half a percentage point in the last election. Tough the high % ov votes of Independents/Others may well affect the final result

If the poll is accurate  then it means that Fine Gael  will fall short of the 87 seats
it needs for an overall majority . Ceann Comhairle (the UK equivelent is the Speaker) is elected automatically.

Labour with 20.5%  will have it highest share of the vote ever the previous high point of  19.5 in 1992 resulted in 33 seats in the 166 seat Dail, and will mean they will be the main Opposition party for the first time if they choose not to join the Fine Gael in government if they choose to do so.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore's  will perhaps be considering the standing og the Liberal Democrats in the UK whose leader had similar approval as himself only to see it vanish when  they joined a right wing coalition and became associated with the cuts that the new government will be implementing .

Because Fine Gael if anything is more right of center than  Fianna Fáil. and it would be Labour who will be blamed by their supporters for any shortcomings.

So what will be the make up of the government of the  31 Dail?

Sinn Féin  could end up with the number of seats Fine Gael needs for a majority possibly backed up with those Independents/others who will not on on the Left (It looks like the United Left Alliance ULA will win a significant number of Seats).

A  Fine Gael Fianna Fáil. coalition with a Party that was in government want to become junior partners in any coalition seems unlikely.

But the hostility between the two parties is more historical than  ideological that  but  Fianna Fáil.will have major  difficulty in being an opposition party and not sounding hypocritical if they oppose Fine Gael cuts..

However Labour will probably feel that it has no choice but to bite the bulletand join the government whilst claiming they are easing the excesses of Fine Gael slashing of public services and welfare

But in the 31 Dail the veteran Socialist Joe Higgins will be there with his ULA supporters and will be at least speaking out for the poor and dispossessed of Ireland . A situation sadly lacking in our own House of Commons apart from the occasional interruptions of Plaid, the SNP and Greens.

Cameron the Vulture.

As North Africa and the middle East sees the collapse of dictatorships ,every one who looks back at the previous collapse of the Soviet Union, whilst welcoming the growth of democracy must be worried about the ensuing vacuum that will prevail.

 Whilst  We saw the growth of stable democratic governments in the Baltic states for instance but also saw the emergence of dictatorships in countries such as Turkmenistan who the West ignore because it acts as an ally and we must never forget the awful civil war in the former Yugoslavia (Ironically not part of the Soviet Union). And Putin control of Russia looks no different to that of the former "Communist" dictatorship.

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Likewise in this region no Western Country has called for the introduction of Democracy in Saudia Arabia presumably they see a difference between a Monarchy which is Tyrannical and a republican one?


However I believe  the West were always more interested in  exporting capitalism than democracy was which  always the secondary aim and only because it provided stable governments. However there seems to have  be no lessons learned from this


In an unbelievable move, PM David Cameron was accompanied on his visit to Cairo by representatives of no less than eight British arms manufacturers. He was joined on the trip by 30 businesses, including Rolls-Royce, BAe Systems, Cobham Group, Qinetiq, Thales and Ultra Electronics, which all produce defence equipment.

Putting aside  the fact that it is partly due to British interference in these countries that led to these regimes. It is amasing that we now believe that we can influence who ever emerged to run these countries. In Iran for instance there is still more hostility towards Britiain han the U.S.A because of out interferance in the past and I suspect the same would be true of Egypt. This does not mean we should not provide advice and help to these countries in order they can set up their democratic institutions.  But whatever these countries need it is not more weapons.

Where is the criticism of the other Political parties over this appalling trip? Is the profits of British Manufactures more important that the suffering of the Arab peoples of the Middle East and and North Africa.

When a man's house is on fire you do not want to sell him a can of Paraffin.

Pontypridd Fights Council Cuts.

Yesterdays rally organised by Unison in   Pontypridd for Rhondda Cynon Taf (R.C.T.) workers against cuts they said were imposed on them by the Labour-controlled council.  was a good start and there was an enthusiastic turnout.

Unison has criticised proposals which it says downgrade pay and conditions, but council leaders have said the alternative is "job losses and service cuts".

Those who attended the Rally  were truly shocked to here from Union leader of of the Councils bullying tactics and it provided us with the interesting  dilemma faced with the only spokesperson invited to speak on the Platform.

For it was Labour's Candidate for the Pontypridd seat  Mick Antoniw. who managed to address us on a protest on the attack on the work force of Labour controlled R.C.T. without once mentioning them. A remarkable feat and it was a generous audience who allowed him to do this.

We could ask why other Parties who were present Plaid,Socialist Party,and Communist Party  for example were not allowed to address the audience (actually I was thankful) but it still shows that the Unions must be prepared to stop backing Labour unless that Party fully backs the rights of their members. As I have said before they are for the members of Union and not to blindly support the Labour Party there is a difference between the Labour Movement as a whole and the Party, and you can be an enthusiastic supporter of the former without backing the latter.

A noticeable absentee was Lib-Dem councillor and perennial candidate Mike Powell, who is usually leaping aboard any passing band wagon.For someone who almost provided us with an upset in Ponty in the General Election one would have thought he would have wanted to use the opportunity to meet the voters but apparently not.

One aspect of the rally was support from the Platform for A Yes vote on the March 3rd referendum. Whilst in truth I didn't feel any huge enthusiasm  for this from those present, there was no negative reaction despite the fact there was an attempt by true Wales to hijack the event.  

As the march started I saw a giant inflatable pig  being held by a group waiting to join in, At first I  naturally thought it was a protest against Bankers and as you can see it was impressive. 

Imagine my disappointment when I realised it was a stunt by True Wales NO campaign who attached themselves to the rear of the march. If however they felt they had somehow  ingrained themselves they were deluded."Why are they here?  was  a question that was asked by more than one marcher and they seemed to have made very few friends. Indeed the stunt seemed to have backfired and I felt the majority attending felt only resentment towards them. 

There will be other Rallies and I hope the numbers will grow and  despite the Unions almost incestuous attachment to the Labour Party, they need and deserve our support . In fact no Party should seek an electoral advantage in claiming they are the lead in fighting the cuts in this battle  we are really "All in it together".