Time to Grow Up.

I received the Election Commission Guide to the March Referendum and admit it is clear easy to read and sticks to the factss.

One thing has occurred to me on reading it  however is if the referendum question is

Do you want the Assembly now to be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for?

What will happen if the Assembly was to gain powers in other subject areas, Policing for instance. Will law making powers be assumed? Will this depend on the whim of Westminster who may grant responsibility but not the means to change the Law as now happens. Will we have to have a referendum on every area of new
responsibility?

I hope whoever drew up the bill on this thought out the likelihood of the Assembly gaining responsibility in more than the 20 areas it currently has.

In many ways this reflects what the referendum is about  if we have responsibility for a subject we must have the means to affect the way they are run by law making.

What we are talking about is if you elect people to the assembly to make a change in they must be given the tools to do so
The Welsh Assembly is not a School Council set up by a Head to  give pupils some idea of responsibility and as a lesson in democracy whilst making sure he or she can ignore any "Wild Ideas".

I remind you of the comment of True Wales spokesman  Paul Matthews,

"We’re not the most innovative or creative, and very often those that are, move out of Wales.” 

 The likes of True Wales  believe that we are incapable of even making simple decisions and will jeopardize our future by such a portrayal. A No vote on March 3rd will say to the World "here are a people afraid of responsibility. W ho can't even have the courage to make simple changes to their lives but must constantly ask its bigger brother for approval".

March 3rd will be  an opportunity for Wales to tell the world it is prepared to act  responsible and willing to look at its own affairs and sought out its own problems.

Just how much support does True Wales really have?

It is is difficult to measure the exact support for True Wales but if we were to look at those who have joined their facebook site here you will see that at the current moment 3:00PM on Sunday 29 January they have only 71 people members.Tthis compares with 2,474 for the Yes for Wales facebook site here. In fact the Ceredigion Says Yes here site with 94 members outstrips them. There also more Yes sites and they seem to be growing.]

Taking in account True Wales has been going for quite some time now there does not seem to me to be the emphatic support of a grassroots movement that they claim to represent. It would be wrong for me to claim that we can use Facebook membership as a complete measure of how much an issue is supported but it is the only real source we have and at the moment it is telling that despite being in existence far longer than the Yes for Wales campaign True Wales has failed to gather any form of grassroots support and one wonders how the media can justify tallowinf them to make such claims without any form of challenge.

I suspect that the media and the BBC are promoting True-Wales as such because they think it will male the referendum more intresting. They may be right but thats no reason not to point out how Little support they have in reality.

This is one other way you can measure the extent of  True Wales support and that comes from their own website.

On this they have a link to a online petition that has been in existence since April 22 2010
which state.

We, the undersigned, oppose plans for direct law-making power to be granted to the Welsh Assembly. 

We believe that such power is unnecessary and will result in:

additional costs. W

a further step towards separation from the UK.

centralisation without bringing real power closer to the people.

no additional economic benefits.

We call upon our representatives to use the powers they already have, and focus their efforts on improving public services and job opportunities for the whole of Wales.

So far this has attracted only 728 signatures despite being in existence for over ten months . Their aim was for over 10,000 so they have only reached 7.3% of their target.

In comparison  a petition startes  on the 25 January to  Keep Driving Standards Agency jobs in Cardiff  (Sign Here) has already reached 403 signatures.

I think its clear from this that True Wales are not a grassroots movement but rather a movement that no one really supports apart from a few disgruntled Labour  people  in Gwent and those who support UKIP.

The Establishment can't understand Irish Republicanism.

I think I've mentioned before  that when living in London I used to drink in an "Irish" pub called the Stags Head . Most of the Irish clientèle whilst sympathetic to  the republican  movement in the "Six Counties" were not supporters of IRA violence,but their  were often perplexed with some of the Westminster actions one of these was the voice ban on Gerry Adams and other Republicans in the early 1990's which ended up with the riduculous situation where actors were employed by the BBC to give voice overs to Adams,  which only played into Sinn Féin hands as portraying the British Government as been autocratic and undemocratic.

The ban was eventually lifted in 1984 as was the travel ban on some Republicans.

As an Irish Republican Adams refused to take his seat partly because he couldn't swear an oath of allegiance but also because to his mind the British Parliament is a foreign parliament as much as the US Congress is to Irish republican.

The London establishment have never understood this in fact they have never really come to terms with the establishment  of an Independent Irish state.

For Christmas I was given Claire Wills book That Neutral Island (Faber and Faber 2007) a superb examination of  Ireland during the Second World War. I recommend this to everyone because it helps in understanding much of Irish national thinking during this period but also shows that Britain still had colonial attitude towards Ireland. Which still exists today  on the Benches of the British Parliament

With regards Adams and I in no way support any advocate for political violence. The British establishment have never come to terms  with him and his charismatic appeal to Irish republicans. So when he resigned his West Belfast seat in the House of Commons by  his mind by the simple means of sending a letter to the speaker which read.

‘A chara I hereby resign as MP for the constituency of West Belfast. Go raibh maith agat  Gerry Adams.’
 
Naturally the British Establishment  went into a  flap claiming that he could only resign by the archaic parliamentary tradition, to apply for an Office of Profit under The Crown before he can stand down.

This may have been a bit terse but is the sort of letter thousand write when handing in their notice and seems to me a perfectly legal (Though perhaps rude) means of resigning by some one who never liked working in the place.

This  appears to have led Mr Adams being appointed  to the  Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead although he as not applied for it.

The pathetic and misleading announcement of this by David Cameron  and the reaction of his Public Schoolboys  on the backbenches   was meant to embarrass Adams but he (Cameron)  and the rest of the establishment including the BBC's David Cornock's cannot realise that Adams and his  Sinn Féin supporters don't give a toss what the British Establishment  think ,or for its archaic traditions and probably never will.

But one wonders if Adams was to challenge this under the Human Rights Act what the result would be? Or what would the reaction be if the establishment thought there was any chance of Sinn Féin losing  the subsequent byelection?

P.S.

One night in 1994 I entered the Stags Head where the topic of discussion was the lifting of the Voice ban on Gerry Adams and other republicans  only one person did not look pleased at this so I asked him why.
I'm an Actor" he replied "I've just lost a lucrative  money spinner as dubbing my voice for Gery Adams for the BBC news".

This not a reason to vote No.

Sian Caiach an Independent member on Carmarthen Council   who previously resigned from Plaid Cymru  after a series of on going disputes  the decision to allow homes to be built on the site of Llanelli Rugby Club’s historic Stradey Park stadium has made her question whether to vote Yes in the referendum on more powers for the National Assembly.
Ms Caiach , who is one of the founding members of a new group called People First, is unhappy that Environment Minister Jane Davidson allowed Taylor Wimpey to proceed with the development on the site, which carries a risk of flooding.

Ms Caiach said: “

"The people of Stradey have just had their faith in the Assembly shattered. The government of Wales has backed down under threat of legal action from Taylor Wimpey and allowed building on a C2 flood plain in an area where the sewage system is seriously overloaded.“This begs the question, ‘Why should we vote for more powers for the Assembly Government when they abuse the ones they have?’

A cynic would argue that this was more about promoting her new People First  grouping  and I am am fed up with those who think that putting "People" in their name gives them some sort of superior position. From Blaneau Gwent  Peoples voice to Torfaen Peoples Voice and Llais Gwynedd we have had these groups which on reflection has shown to be largely the manifestation of peoples egos and this is reflected in the fact that they have no really strategy except to claim that they are different from Political Parties and that they represent the views of the "People" who ever they are perhaps a Welsh version of Flan O'Briens  "Plain people of Ireland"?  But in reality they end up with  no real strategy except for the use of populist  politics  and opposing plans like closing local Schools. They seem to encompass the whole right-left spectrum but the main thrust seems to be to claim to represent the ordinary voter  but of course like all politicians they only  represent one section of the community. By all means oppose the cozy world of mainstream politics but don't claim you speak for all.

However Ms Caiach is probably right to oppose the Stradey plans but is this really a reason to vote no.Can she really say if this came under the jurisdiction of the Secretary of State for Wales the response would be any different?

The fact is the Assembly may the wrong decision  in this case aand will make wrong decisions if it achieves it new powers after the referendum. If you think that voting yes on March 3rd will result in some kind of Utopian government think again.
 Whether  an Assembly Parliament or Independent government will result in decisions being made that you will think that are wrong bit they will be our decisions and our responsibility. That is being grown up we cannot go on blaiming Westminster for our troubles and at the same time refuse to take responsibility for our own affairs. Those Labour members of True Wales who look at Con-Lib proposals for Education and the Health service in England might well reflect on this.

As the late Gwyn Alf once said

"We have been around for 2000 years its time we were given the Key of the Door".

 

Lib-Dem win Marl Byelection but its not impressive.

he results for the byelection for the Marl ward of Conwy council resulted in s a Liberal Democrat gain from the Tories.

LD 389 (40.4; -10.1)
Con 270 (28.1; +5.7)
Lab 216 (22.5; +14.2)
Ind 87 (9.0; -9.7)
Majority 119
Turnout 31.3%
LD gain from Con

The % change which I got from the Lib-Dem Association of Liberal Dempcrat Councillors ALDC looks like a major victory for the Lib-Dems but Marl is a two seat ward and they held the other seat last time with a huge majority

2008 result
Michael Alfred Priestley Welsh LD 848 37%
Linda Ann Hurr Welsh  Con 375 16% Elected
Samantha Louise Cotton  Con  349 15% Not elected
Delyth Shotter Ind l 315 14% Not elected
Barry Wynne Owen Ind 293 13%
Roy Gambrill Lab 139 6%

Mike Priestley is the Lib-Dem Assembly candidate and although he can claim victory in his ward it is not as impressive as it looks. Particularly when you look at the 14.7% swing to Labour.

Comenting on the ALDC website the Lib-Dems who haven't had  had too much to celebrate with regards By-election recently posted.

We had kept our ear to the ground and could see that a by-election was likely as far back as October last. We introduced a new focus editor and started focusing as a team. When the resignation came we called the election immediately catching the Tories on the hop. The postal vote was issued on January 2nd we made sure that despite the weather they all received personal bi-lingual letters from Mike and the candidate. We followed this with further focuses and street letters, and a final targeted letter from Lord Roger Roberts. The Tories put out a confused variety of literature and Labour were entirely negative. With a turnout of 31%, a postal vote turnout of 75% justified our postal vote work. Emphasising the hard working team is a key message in all your literature where we have a track record. 

Based on this and will the Focus team leaflets be counted as electoral expenses and although I acept the weather may have influenced people applying for postal votes . I am worried that political parties have too much involvement in people obtaining them. 75% is a very high number and whilst I am sure that all was above board at the Marl by-election I am concerned that if Political parties or organised groups take to much of arole when it comes to postal votes it threats the secret ballot and the democratic system.

If we are too have increased postal votes then we must ensure that they are as  secret and as democratic as voting in a poling booth recent disclosures in other council election have concerned me of this.

I am sure that in Conwy the whole process was based on the commitment of honest Lib-Dem workers but what if it dishonest people wished to misue the Postal vote the current system makes it open to abuse.

Why True Wales Won't Play.

News that True Wales Gwent the group calling for a No vote in the March referendum on further powers for the Welsh Assembly , has said it does not want official status as a lead campaign comes as no surprise..

This will probably mean that the  Electoral commission , the watchdog overlooking the referendum must decide whether it can appoint lead campaigners for the "No" side by 2 February. If not it may well decline funding to the Official  Yes for Wales campaign.

So what are True Wales Gwent realy up to?

• They may be generally opposed to the spending of money £70,000 which they would receive in order to campaign, plus free mailshots to every home in Wales. But if this so I presume they will also be opposed to Political parties receiving Free mailshots  at election time.
• They may hope that it will result in fewer people taking an interest in the referendum anf#d this would result in a lower turn out. But as iI suspect the Yes campaign are more likely to vote .Wouldn't this mean theYes campaign  would have a larger majority? So have rue Wales Gwent accepted they will lose the referndun and hope that a low turn out will lead to the Westminster Government question its validity. 
• The wish to portray themselves as honest ordinary people up against a well financed political elite.Miserable Old Fart has answered most of this on his Blog here. But it seems to me that True Wales Gwent resemble the Tea Party in America who lacking any real argument or intellectual clout, (some might argue that I am guilty of this)  try and pretend that ignorance is a virtue. But it is ridiculous to call the Welsh Assembly an elite and thus inferring  that their preference, being governed by the Con-Lib government at Westminster is not a grater elite. Some of these people in True Wales Gwent   are supposed to be Socialists for God-sake.
• They do not wish to register because this would mean that they finances are open to scrutiny and far from being backed by the "pennies of the ordinary peopleas they would like to claim"  they have or will receive financial backing from some embarrassing sources.

There may be other reason,  but it is a sad day for democracy when one side of a campaign cannot put forward its case because the other side knowing that it has no real argument (only the abuse that resembles the far right of American politics) declines to take fully part in the process.
 

True Wales Gwent have form. They have earlier claimed that they couldn't get any Welsh speaking supporters to represent them because these were afraid of intimidation but most of us suspect they just don't have enough Welsh speakers able to debate the issues rationally.

There is a glimmer of hope Miserable Old Fart under his name of David Alwyn ap Huw Humphreys.Has asked the Electoral Commission that he could lead a No campaign on the grounds that the proposal  dodn't go far enough. If he is successful I would suspect there would be much recrimination and blood letting amongst those Non-Elites of True Wales Gwent .

Like a little boy who knows that despite his boasts,knows that he will not be very good in the actual game and  tries to take the ball away. But it's not his ball its ours and we want to see him try and show us that he is as good as he claims.

Will AV wipe out Plaid?

In today Western Mail Dr John Cox  argues that the implication of AV could result in Plaid MPs be wiped out at Westminster especially when taking into account the proposals for larger consultancies in this I am in agreement it is of interest that the Lib-Dems could also lose their three seats and this also seems likely though on the current polls they would do so anyway.

Though I suspect that the Lib-Dems  with some misgiving would sacrifice their 3 Welsh seats for the chance of  ay 20 -40 more in England and perhaps wiping Plaid and the SNP out

Of course this should not be a reason to oppose AV if it resulted in a truly proportional representation but unless you looked at this from a purely UK angle  in which the nationalist parties and all the Northern Ireland parties would probably not meet a percentage threshold then of about 5%  giving them a nominal entitlement of 3 MP's then this will not be fair.

Of course in Northern Ireland the London parties do not largely stand so there may be a case that the introduction of AV would result in more proportionality. But the fact that they recognise the uniqueness of the Six counties  is an Tacit acceptance by the London parties that "Regional " factors should be included in any assessment of whether a system is proportional or not.

My argument  is that although in a minority when it comes to Westminster elections both Plaid and the SNP have enough support to claim seats in the Commons based on the idea of proportional representation. It would be a shame if the introduction of AV could result in them having less representation than they are entitled to under a proportional system based on the Welsh or Scottish percentage of votes,

At the moment Plaid's could claim that it was entitled to  4-5 of the 40 welsh seats based on its votes in Wales, where the SNP cou;ld claim 11-12 instead of the 3 and six they currently have.

I think Plaid's leadership should make a step of rejecting AV not because it threats theircurrent  seats but because it is con masquerading as given us more democracy ,as Dr Cox points out this may well be far from the truth in Wales at least.