Peter in Denial.

I said in my last Post regarding the Oldham  East and Saddleworth By-election,. that I was

" looking forward to Peter Black and Subordinate Centre commenting because I am certain they and every other LibDem Bloggers will be trying to spin that they vote held up"

Good old Peter has managed to fulfill my prophesy ,  he has posted twice on the the subject here and here  in which he tries to look on the bright side . He concludes in his latest post that.

"The other misconception comes from the assertion by the new Labour MP that the voters in her constituency had sent a message to the coalition government.Given that the combined vote of the coalition parties was 15,641 compared to Labour's vote of 14,781 I think we are entitled to ask what precisely that message was". 

Er.... except the combined Con-Lib-Dem vote in the previous election was 25,856 which means a loss of 10,215 votes.. The Labour vote however increased by 532. This may not be a ringing  endorsement for Labour but it is a clear rejection against the coalition partners both of whom lost votes.

I am sure Peter will argue that I should not be combining the General Election vote as there was no coalition then but if he is the one whose playing with figures,  Unless of course there was a formal (or as many suspect an informal) pact between the parties during the by-election?.

This was a by-election that under the circumstances that it was called the Lib-Dems should  have won easily. The fact that they did not do as disastrously as they did does not paste over the fact that this was a bad result.  It a bit like New Zealand beating Wales 20-9 and  Warren Gatland claiming  that as this was not the drubbing the sports pundits had predicted, this was a bad result for both coalition partners..

Next May, we will be seeing the only the Lib-Dems can win here leaflets and their Little Bar Graphs.  but  on current t evidence I suspect the electorate will take them with a pinch of salt.

Tories sacrifice in Oldham and Saddleworth

The Labour Party Has won the Oldham and Saddleworth  with a majority of 
f3,558 
Labour: 14,718 (42.1%) 
Lib Dems: 11,160 (31.9%)
Conservatives: 4,481 (12.8%)
UKIP: 2,029 (5.8%)
BNP: 1,560 (4.5%)
Green Party: 530 (1.5%)
Monster Raving Loony Party: 145 (0.4%)
English Democrats: 144 (0.4%)
Pirate Party: 96 (0.2%)
Bus Pass Elvis Party: 67 (0.1%)


The 2010 result was 
   Labour 14,186 31.9 −10.7
  Lib-Dem 14,083 31.6 −0.5
 Con 11,773 26.4 +8.7
 t BNP 2,546 5.7 +0.8
  UKIP 1,720 3.9 +1.8
 Christian 212 0.5 N/A

I'm looking forward to Peter Black and Subordinate Centre  commenting because I am certain they and every other  LibDem Bloggers will be trying to spin that they vote held up. But less be realistic this was a By-election that was called after the Labour candidate was accused of Dirty tricks  this should have been a walkover for them .

However much they will try and claim that they did better than expected and thier vote  held up it is already clear this was because of the collapse of the Conservative vote who lost nearly 7000 votes in an election where they were also close in 2010.

Obviously we do not know these votes went , but it has been claimed that the Conservatives fought a lackluster campaign in order to ensure the Lib-Dem vote didn't collapse for fear that a humiliated  this party and they would then  would turn on Nick Clegg and the whole idea of being in coalition.

It is highly probable that most of the lost Tory votes went to the Lib-Dems and that this helped the latter them from a even bigger embarrassment.

I am sure many will think that the Lib-Dems deserve their second place over their betrayal  when we consider their betrayal over tuition fees etc. But we must remember the reason why the By-election was called the individual Labour candidate Phil Woolas  has been punished in that he is no longer a MP but many more Labour members were involved in the disgraceful dirty tricks and they deserved to lose the seat.

However the voters of  Oldham and Saddleworth faced with the option of a Lib-Dem party that has betrayed it's principals for Ministerial cars did not think so. In Wales and Scotland they would have had a choice of Progressive parties in Plaid and the SNP they clearly did not feel they had the option here in another party.

What is clear is that the Lib-Dems in Oldham and Saddleworth were dependent on the Conservatives sacrificing themselves  but I doubt they will continue to do so in the long run, and when it comes to the crunch will hang them out to dry.

The Secret Policeman (drops the) Ball.

 A few weeks ago, the day time  Television series Missing set in a busy, under-resourced missing persons unit  starring Pauline Quirke included ,a subplot involved a young female environmental activist reporting her lover going missing . It later transpired that he was a undercover Policeman who had began to feel guilty over his role and had asked to be reassigned.

In  remarkable coincidence in the last week we have had the collapse of a trial of green activists after undercover Metropolitan Police officer Mark Kennedy/Stone indicated he would vouch for the defence. He has been working undercover with the group for seven years and had formed a relationship with a female member  despite being married in hid "Real Life".

I'm surprised someone at the BBC hasn't pointed out the similarities as it was they investigations who helped expose  the story .

But they and the rest of the Media seem to be very reluctant to ask how many other members of the police force are undercover at the time and to what extent these are acting as Agent Provocateurs.

For if a minor environmental action group has had a Policeman working undercover for seven years. What other groups have been infiltrated, and what is the criteria is being used t justify this ?  Are the Police making a political judgement?

In the late 1970 when I was active for Plaid Cymru in the Ponypridd Constituency there was concern raised by some members that a highly  prominent member was a spy for the security forces. Part of the reason for this was because he admitted to having some vague Military Intelligence background Nothing came of it but the person involved later moved to Mid-Wales where he changed his name (quite openly) to a more "Welsh" one.

It is highly probable that the fears where groundless, and in fact  the person involved was probably a major asset to Plaid in the Constituency during his time he was with us.

However, I suspect based on the Kennedy /Stone example  that many organisations have been infiltrated from time to time either by  the Police or Security forced, irrespective of whether they are law abiding or not., but in most cases this was s often more like MFI than MI5 and like the former after a lot of work setting up soon fall apart.

Baring in mind that Kennedy/Stone was known as Van Man,because he often provided the Transport for the activist. I would recommend that If you have a strong suspicion that someone in your group is infiltrator then I would use them in  such a manner and get Transport etc provided  by them (or rather the Tax payer) whilst ensuring they never reach an important role in the  day to day organisation

Why do Labour still support First Past The Post?

I'm not by any means a supporter of the Alternative Vote agreeing with Nick Clegg in an earlier incantation that it was.."miserable little compromise I know I am not alone in believing that the Single Transferable Vote is the only true option and stillconsidering my opptions for the referendum .

However when faced with the option that Labour Uncut  give in support of the current system. I have began to waiver slightly. Because I would not like to vote "No" if this resulted in the assumption I was somehow in favour of First Past the Post.

Some one called Dan McCurry makes the ludicrous claim that the Two Party system is somehow more democratic. He attempts to base his argument on attacking the Liberal Democrats.

We’ve waited for generations for a chance to destroy the Liberal Democrats and get British politics back to its natural balance of a two party democracy. Finally, the Lib Dems have been exposed for the shallow bunch they are, and just at that moment when we can finally clean up, along comes this campaign, from within the party, seeking to bring about eternal coalition.

What the Labour opponents of Proportional Representation like McCury can't see is that the Two Party system excludes many who have Legitimate views. and of these it particularly excludes those who  see little difference in the Labour and Consevatives when it comes to policies which are often vilified by the Tabloid Press as do-gooders  and wishy-wash liberalism.(Though I'd rather be a do-gooder than a do- badder).

Under the last Labour government we saw the UK enter an illegal War which was largely supported by the main opposition party. It was left to the minor Parties to speak for those of us who opposed the War. The Liberal Democrats played some part in this and received some electoral advantage but were largely silent once the War started, It was the Nationalist Parties in the House of Commons who spoke for those who opposed Blair,s folly all the time.

If the two party system was existence then  opposition would have been even less.

If we were to revert to the Two Party system then we end up like the U.S.A. Where the the parties are often indistinguishable in most policies and were some Republicans are more Liberal and progressive than some Democrats.

It will also mean that the Parties will  sell them selves to money interest and we will see greater influence of Lobby Groups who would continue to  offer financial support to the both Parties in order that their Interest are promoted.

Look at the Labour Uncut Blog can any one really say this is an argument for Democracy?

Labour claims a Welsh Idenity (For now)

Pontypridd Labour MP Owen Smith has been posting on Left Foot Forward on  the forthcoming year in Wales electorally.

Since he is new MP  he doesn't completely carry the baggage of the failure of the past Labour in premoting the Welsh Idenity and values  he now claims for his Party in wales. but he surely   cannot expect to make such statements as.

 

Thirteen years after we first voted to create a National Assembly – years in which the relationship between Labour in Wales and London has significantly evolved, and in which the ambitions of a confident and distinctly Welsh Labour movement have forcefully (re)emerged – Labour is now clearly understood to be the natural home for supporters of a radical, progressive and Welsh agenda. 

When Welsh Labour cannot  produce a bilingual website and it is not separately registered with the Electoral Commission under the terms of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act, nor is it part of a federal organisation (such as the relationship between the Welsh Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrats, for example). As such it does not have an office of Leader (Unlike I understand the situation in Scotland) .although Carwyn Jones is de facto leader because of his position in the Assembly. This is because of the existence of the Assembly and not because of Labour's constitution in Wales if it has one. I believe that they used to be registered as a "Welsh Labour Party" but ceased to do so, perhaps because their finances are to tied to Labour London HQ.

 But it does seem that in opposition Welsh Labour has discovered it's Welsh Identityn, as their counterparts in Scotland found theirs in the Thatcher era. Clearly Owen Smith thinks this will run well in Wales he writes

While Plaid voters, once sceptical that the Wales Labour party could stand up to the London leadership, are now increasingly comfortable with the strong Welsh flavour of our policies and of our politicians. For many ex-Plaid voters, especially in the south and south west, whose ambitions stop short of independence, Labour now appeals as the most effective and robust means of having a Welsh ‘writ’ run at home and Welsh lilt heard in Westminster.

He may well be right but I have not really seen much of a Welsh flavour in Labours policies recently Unless they really think simply not being a bunch of right-wing ideologues like the current Lib-Dem coalition is? This ideology they seem to have ignored under the leadership of Tony Blair : But if it is more than this I predict that any New Welsh Identity will fade after next May's assembly elections maybe to resurface time and time again to reassure us: But if I suspect many pf those Plaid Voters Own Smith mentions will still be sceptical that if Labour were ever to attempt  promote a  a true Welsh identity to then Ed Milliband and the rest of the British Labour leadership would silence them swiftly particularly  if this didn't go down well with the London Media and if he was to reach the position of Prime Minister then Welsh Labour will revert towards what it as always been.Just a name on a masthead.


 

Tory Lib-Dem merger on the cards?

In his latest Blog  René Kinsett makes a play for a merger between the Liberal Democrats and the Tories of course he switched parties and has stood for the Lib-Dems in the 2005 election and the Conservatives in the 2010 but whilst most would dismiss the idea of a merger, it is entirely possible that the two parties would enter into an electoral pact for the next election.

Senior Tory MP Mark Pritchard, secretary of the back-bench 1922 committee, suggested the "heart and soul of the Conservative Party" was under threat from ministers seeking a long-term settlement with the Lib Dems.
There may be indication in the Oldham and Saddleworth  by-election

The fact that the By-election was called after Labour's Phil Woolas was disqualified for producing dishonest election Literature would in theory have handed the Lib-Dems a virtual walkover. But since they have entered into coalition  with the Tories, they vote appears to be collapsing in the UK

The result in the 2010 election points to this being a three- way marginal

 Phil Woolas Labour          14,186 31.9 −10.7
 Elwyn Watkins Lib-Dem   14,083 31.6 −0.5
 Kashif Ali Con                  11,773 26.4 +8.7
 Alwyn Stott BNP              2,546 5.7 +0.8
 David Bentley UKIP         1,720 3.9 +1.8
 Gulzar Nazir Christian     212 0.5 N/A

And in theory the Tories under normal circumstances have had a good   chance as their Opinion Poll standing has not been so adversely affected. But  it seems Canmeron would not like to see his partners humiliated in failing to gain what as I have stated would be a walkover has ensured that the Conservatives are only fighting a "paper" campaign

The Truth of this may well only be found when the electoral expenses are published for  2010 those of the
Main Parties in Oldham and Saddlworth were.

Con 11773 Votes £15,904.41 Spent.
Lib 14083 Votes £36,246.62 Spent
Lab 14186 Votes £13,722.81 Spent.
.
You are allowed to spend much more in By-elections but if the Tories do match their rivals then our suspicions will be confirmed.

Of course at the moment there is no formal talk of a electoral pact but remember if the plan to reduce the number of MP's,and the creation of equal Constituencies of £80,000 then the political map will be redrawn and virtually every seat will be a new one which will make negotiations somewhat easier, except where a Conservative and Liberal Democrat seat are more or less combined. But in the next election most seats will be totally different and there will be less opposition from sitting MP's or parties that came second in 2010.

I have no doubt under these circumstance at leas tan informal arrangement will come about but whilst it will perhaps save the Likes of Nick Clegg it will mean the end of his party which will become nothing more than the "Liberal" wing of the Conservatives.

What Subordinate Centre should really show as Lib-Dem achievements.

Er................