Ukip Civil War could lead to defection to Welsh Tories.

Before we start it is important to note that although Nathan Gill is the leader of Ukip in Wales, he was ousted as the leader of the Party in the Welsh Assembly  which was hardly a good start in party unity 

The leader of Ukip's group is if course Neil Hamilton , whohas been accused of "awful bullying behaviour".

bullying after calling for a 21-year-old Ukip member set to be employed by his party rival Nathan Gill to be sacked.

Mr Hamilton was furious about a tweet in which former Ukip Wales researcher Llyr Powell suggested he did not agree that Mr Hamilton should be able to claim accommodation costs in Cardiff while having his main home in Wiltshire.

In a leaked e-mail (yes we all believe that) to Mr Gill, the former Tory MP described Mr Powell as "a malign influence in Ukip Wales".

Mr Hamilton wrote:

 "Llyr was a malign influence in UKIP Wales in the run-up to the Assembly election and I was surprised that you chose to employ him after I had said there was no place for him on our group staff on account of his highly personal campaign against several UKIP AMs."
He went on to say that he was "outraged that Llyr Powell has publicly implied that my reimbursement claims are a waste of taxpayers' money".

Mr Gill, who is an MEP and also a North Wales Assembly Member, said it was “totally unacceptable” that the employment of Llyr Powell should be “jeopardised”.

He issued this statement:

“This is a talented young man who I know very well and who I have made provisions to employ on my staff in Brussels, but who is currently exploring the jobs market and building his career.
"For that to be jeopardised by this ongoing campaign of counter briefings and leaks from within the party is totally unacceptable.
“This matter should be dealt with privately and directly, not through emails then deliberately shared to journalists.
"As a Welsh taxpayer and voter he is more than entitled to question how an elected official is using the Assembly’s expenses provisions.
"Llyr is not an employee of Ukip so nobody in Ukip has it within their purview to call for him to be fired.
"This is awful bullying behaviour by people who frankly should know better, but are instead focused on a spiteful effort to seek hegemony in the party, one person at a time.”

Llyr Powell  stood down  for UKIP in May’s Assembly elections.  following controversial comments which were wildly  seen as racist from another UKIP candidate, Gareth Bennett, (Now an AM and Hamilton suppoter) about Eastern Europeans, he will no longer be standing for UKIP.

He was selected to stand in the Neath constituency and on the party’s list in the South Wales West region, but following controversial comments from another UKIP candidate, Gareth Bennett, about Eastern Europeans, he will no longer be standing for UKIP.

when Hamilton ousted Gill as group leader Mr Powell then described as a  a senior member of Ukip Wales’ national campaign team, said: 

“Six of us have been told we won’t be employed in future because we are Farage loyalists. A new team will be brought in.

We can only wonder  how long can the  the Ukip group stay together.

Could there be defections to the Tories which would probably make them the main opposition party.

If this was to happen however it would surely  bring in to question the whole list system .

Every one of the current Ukip AMs  was  elected under the Additional Member System

If a member was to resign  or die  then he or she would  be replaced by the next person on the list.

If there is no Candidate left then the seat would be left vacant .

However as with the case of Mohammad Asghar  who came  to prominence after being elected to the Welsh Assembly in 2007 as a member of Plaid Cymru on the list for South Wales East but fairly soon defected to the Conservatives, . It makes a mockery of am election system which is supposed   to make the electoral system fairer could be usurped  within months,

Although other systems would not stop this  AMS candidates  do not really have the same claim  that First Past the Post and Single Transferable  Post to gaining individual support.

In the next few months we may see this becoming a important debate.