Today we have the latest Welsh Political Barometer Pol from Elections in Wales
I have copied the relevant details (in blue) .I hope they don't mind
With less than five months to go until the National Assembly election, however, it is on this that attention will increasingly be focussed. Once again our poll asked people how they would vote on both the constituency and regional lost ballot for the devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency vote (with changes on our last poll, in September, again in brackets):
Labour: 35% (-4)
Conservatives: 23% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 20% (+2)
UKIP: 15% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Others: 3% (+1)
The figures for the regional list vote were like this (with changes from the previous Barometer poll again indicated):
Labour: 34% (no change)
Conservatives: 23% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (no change)
UKIP: 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Others: 2% (no change)
Again assuming uniform swings from 2011 across Wales, and after taking into account the distribution of constituency seats when allocating the list seats, this gives us the following projected overall outcome for the National Assembly:
Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats) Down 3
Conservatives: 12 seats (7 constituency seats + 5 list seats) Down 2
Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats) Down 1
UKIP: 9 seats (9 list seats) Up 9
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats) Down 3
Fro my point of view Ukip have clearly the most to Cheer. Plaid must take some comfort in that they appear not to be losing ground abnd must hope that if Welsh minds are concentrated on the Welsh assembly rater than Westminster Politics then they can increase thier share of the vote.
Ukip of course must be delighted their impact has been diminished in the UK recently and some commentators have mused that they might well be spent.
So the Welsh Assembly elections could ironically give what is largely an English Party a boost.
What is thier size of Ukip membership in Wales can they really gain 9 Assembly seats with hardly any bots on the ground?
What will the effect onf any date being set for the In=-Out European Referendum?
Some have speculated that this might even be in June and that will almost certainly Boost Ukip voter in the Assembly elections.
What would the Assembly look like if the result is as above.
Labour with 27 seats could easily decide to go it alone with the idea that Plaid and the rump LibDems could be accused of voting with Ukip if they voted against Labour legislation .
This will lead us with four years of stagnant Labour Government . It might be posible for Labour to elect a Leader who has vision and an enthusiasm to raise the Assembly postion and Work with Plaid and/or the LibDems to foem a coalition against the Tories/Ukip reforming the electoral system for both the Assembly and Local government with STV and making a united cas efor parotiy with Scotland.
Bur somehow I doubt it.
2 comments:
Glyn, you may be interested to know that Labour are having a great deal of difficulty getting people to stand for the Constituency in the Scottish Parliament. Oh they are queueing up for the list so much that it would appear they are going to have to stand instead for the constituency for any chance of a list seat.
I wonder what the difference is with Wales and Scotland, is it that we have seen through Labour for the useless troughers that they are and Wales has yet to see this. As for Ukip, they have the one MEP which they would not have had other wise they lose their deposits here normally.
The only parties that will be happy with the poll are UKIP and Labour, although you’d swear from the media/political reaction that UKIP were on course to form the next Welsh Government such is the fuss being made.
Labour’s mainly to blame for UKIP rise in Wales, but they don’t care because they’re still the largest party and always will be, unless UKIP can genuinely challenge and replace them which is more likely than Plaid Cymru ever getting its act together.
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