Labour: 39% (+4)
Conservatives: 23% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (-2)
UKIP: 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
Others: 2% (-1)
The changes are from the last poll was conducted in June.and show what may be a Corbyn bounce.
For the "Top Up" Regional voted
Labour: 34% (+2)
Conservatives: 24% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (-2)
UKIP: 14% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (no change)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Others: 2% (-1)
According to Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre it would result in the following outcome.
Labour: 29 seats (27 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 12 seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seats (1 constituency seat)
It will be intresting what wil hapen to the Ukip vote if the select g high profile figures from outside Wales to stand in 2016 in the most winnable regional seats
For Progressive Parties like Plaid, LibDems ( who may be joining) and Greens if they do not start to increase in the Polls soon May be a very big disappointment.
2 comments:
it was to only be expected that parties to the left of labour - like plaid and the greens - would suffer a loss of some support with the election of the committed socialist jeremy corbyn as labour leader. Though whether this is a temporary or more permanent phenomenon remains to be seen, as we mustnt forget that as a party labour still remains in favour of things like trident renewal.
But the most disappointing thing about this poll is the prospect of right wing parties winning a third of seats in the senedd. Historically speaking It would not be stretching things to describe wales as a socialist country, so the prospect of a third of the seats in our the Assembly going to parties advocating a low tax, anti trade union welfare cutting society is very worrying to say the least. Perhaps 21st century wales is not nearly as progressive a nation as we like to think it is.
A century of Labour hegemony in Wales has hidden the true nature of its support and parts of the welsh electorate.
In the old industrial communities of North East and the Valleys a chunk of old Labour support now voting UKIP was never comfortable with Labour opening up and embracing women’s and LGBT rights, loosening Trade Union links or the party being less British.
We can’t shrink from changes in emigration to voting however uncomfortable it makes Plaid Cymru and Labour, the retirees along the North West Wales coast are mostly Tory voters and many in marginal seats, Labour’s woken up to this phenomenon after losing the Vale of Clwyd and Gower.
Add in the fact most welsh people read right wing London papers (Sun, Daily Mail, Telegraph) and the lack of a distinctive welsh press and you might understand the toxic mess we’re in.
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