Nice try Ed but it is much more likely that the Libdem are in for a hammering on May 5th, and it also seems that the majority of voters lost will be returning to Labour . In this we seem to have a similar repeat of 1987 and 1992 UK elections with the demise of the Lib-SDP alliance where the majority of votes lost in 1983 returned to Labour.
Votes in Wales for General Election
Party 1983 1987 1992
Lab 39.5 45.1 49.5
Con 31.0 29.5 28.6
Lib/All 23.2 17.9 12.4
Plaid 7.8 7.3 9.0
It does seem that when people change from Labour to Libdem then they eventually go back and other parties do not benefit. Indeed it seems for party like Plaid it the core working class Labour vote that they must seek to attract and the idea that those who deserted Labour in Pontypridd, Methyr, Wrexham and Newport East for instance are left leaning people with a conscious may well be mistaken and that they are more likely to be those who are swayed by the media attacks on that Party. For if they were so wooried about Labours swing to the right then they would have surely done so in the Blair years.
What ever the case it does seem from the opinion poll in Cerdigion run by Aber students that the Libdem swing vote seems to be going almost wholly to Labour .However Plaid's Elin Jones should benefit from this.
Nevertheless the campaign has only just official started and Plaid should receive a boost from the fact that people will realise this is a Welsh electin and not for Westminster. As happened in 2007 where the first ITV poll showed Plaid well behind the Tories.
3 comments:
" Nevertheless the campaign has only just official started and Plaid should receive a boost from the fact that people will realise this is a Welsh electin and not for Westminster."
... what, you think English students in Aberystwyth actually understand that they are in Wales?! They think that Wales's education and health policies are the same as those for Westminster 'cos the BBC keeps running wall to wall coverage of the argument over Andrew Landsley's plans for the (English) NHS. They'll vote to 'get the Tories out' even though it's the Labour party which has run the NHS in Wales for 13 years!
The first part of Plaid Cymru's party political broadcasts should be devoted to saying the Tories do not run health or education - that's done by Wales not Westminster.
Anonymous 15:22
I doubt that it's only English students who think education and NHS policies are run from Westminster. They might vote Labour but I remember when I was there in 1986 a fair number of English students voted for Cynog Dafis and I bet a lot more did in 1992 when he won on the Plaid/Green ticket..
But lets face it I suspect not many students will bother to vote in the Assembly Elections and it is the general public that are crucial: but are they any more aware than students on where the responsibility lies?
More people will vote lib dem on the 5th than the polls or bloggers think!
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