Thursday, 5 March 2015

Ashcroft's Vale of Glamorgan poll probably Plaid takes most comfort..

The interesting thing about Lord Ashcrofts's poll for the Vale of Glamorgan is not so much that it is a close run thing between the Tories and Labour but how the other Parties are doing




Its not very clear  But

Conservative 28%
Labour 26%
Lib Dem  3%
Ukip 7%
Plaid 9%
Green 2%



The  210 Electioin saw Alan Cairns from Labour
General Election 2010: Vale of Glamorgan[3][4]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Alun Cairns 20,341 41.8 +4.4

Labour Alana E. Davies 16,034 32.9 −7.8

Liberal Democrat Eluned Parrott 7,403 15.2 +2.0

Plaid Cymru Ian James Johnson 2,667 5.5 +0.3

UKIP Kevin Mahoney 1,529 3.1 +1.4

Green Rhodri H. Thomas 457 0.9 +0.9

Christian John Harrold 236 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,307 8.8
Turnout 48,667 69.3 +0.7

Conservative gain from Labour Swing +6.1

There is a huge drop in thew Lib Dem vote and perhaps the fact that UKip are only on 7% in the sort of constituency  that we may expect them to well may point to them not achieving anything like the vote it would be expecting in Wales after the Euro Elections

Insomuch as a Party can take much cheer from 9% its Plaid who may take it  from this Poll if they replicated this in the Election it will be the highest vote in the t Vale at a UK Election.

Of course tactical voting may change things especially as its clear that is a true horse race but it may be that Plaid Anti-Austerity message is getting through   and if it was replicated throughout Wales especially in Llanelli it could be a good night for Plaid.

If this Blog does not appear tomorrow it will be because I will be being wheeled  down to an Operating Theatre in the Heath Hospital  for the removal of a tumour on my Pituitary Gland . The second within a year.

I hope to be back within a week

7 comments:

  1. Good Luck and Best Wishes Glyn

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  2. I'm sure you will be back within a week, im looking forward to your observations running up to the General Election all the best.

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  3. Best wishes.

    Dafydd

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  4. hope the operation went well glyn - hope youre soon back on youre feet and blogging.

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  5. Thanks all .Although I have Wi-Fi connection .It Will be probably next week beforeI m back to normal.

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  6. Hope all has gone well Glyn! Come back soon.

    ReplyDelete