Monday, 16 March 2015

After GE2015 the question of legitimacy will still be Scottish one.

Thinking about Yesterday's Blog on the Unionists argument that the prospect of 40+  SNP  MPs in the next Parliament  could provoke constitutional change from a Uniomist Backlash,. It occurred to me  that  the real question is that it  would  create a huge problem in how Westminster still governs Scotland.

Take the latest YouGov   Scotland poll  it coi;d lead to  the number seats won as seats: 

SNP 48 (+42) Lab 9 (-32) Con 1 (=) LDem 1 (-10) 

Now lets take a Scenario where either Labour or the Tories have a overall majority  or can cobble together a coalition which does not include Welsh or Scottish Parties .

You will the find that the New Secretary of State  would not represent the largest party in Scotland but that has happened before under the Tories .

But this tine it will mean that the Shadow Secretary of state will nor represent the largest party in Scotland.

This always has existed in Northern Ireland but the circumstances  are different as neither the Tories or Labour seriously fight seats in the Six Counties. 

Even if the next government replace the Secretary of State of the devolved Nations  with a Cabinet Minister for the Regions, The SNP  could still be the largest party and that's not taking Plaid MPs into the equation.

Imagine the Scottish Secretary after GE2015  (or even The Secretary of the Regions ) answering questions in the same manner as they do now . The Speaker calls on the opposition to question tne minister . With the vast majority of MPs behind him from  a different party wanting to asl questions 

Wlil the leader of the SNP or their designated spokesperson   be given equal time to grill the minister ?

Would we have in effect two Shadow Ministers of State  for Scotland . One representing the Official UK opposition and one representing the largest Scottish Party.

Will the Tories ,Labour and other Unionist Paries pack such an event with MPs representing English seats?

Will thel Scottish Affairs Select Committee i which ahas already MPs from English seats on it consist of 5  members of the current Government  , 5 from the Official opposition  and one SNP member  at least recognise the SNP as the largest Party or will it be entirely Unionist in Character? 

The current make up is
MemberPartyConstituency
Ian Davidson MP (Chair)LabourGlasgow South West
Michael Crockart MPLiberal DemocratEdinburgh West
Eleanor Laing MPConservativeEpping Forest
Jim McGovern MPLabourDundee West
Graeme Morrice MPLabourLivingston
Pamela Nash MPLabourAirdrie and Shotts
Sir James Paice MPConservativeSouth East Cambridgeshire
Alan Reid MPLiberal DemocratArgyll and Bute
Simon Reevell MPConservativeDewsbury
Lindsay Roy MPLabourGlenrothes
Dr Eilidh Whiteford MPScottish National PartyBanff and Buchan
The remit of the Committee is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of the Scotland Office (and prior to that, the Scottish Office), and relations with the Scottish Parliament. It also looks at the administration and expenditure of the Advocate General for Scotland.[

Speaker John Bercow is going to have to sort this out.

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