Monday, 2 March 2015

Could there be a Tory/Lab Coalition in the next Parlaiment?



Gisela Stuart, MP for Birmingham Edgbaston, has said that Labour shouldn’t rule out forming a ‘grand coalition’ with the Tories after the next election if neither party win a majority.


Stuart told the Financial Times .

“If on May 8 you had a position where Labour had more seats than the Tories but not enough to form a government — but the Tories had more votes than Labour — I think you should not dismiss the possibility of a grand coalition in terms of regrouping of the main”

Stuart, who was born in Germany, went on to compare the UK to Germany, where there is currently a left/right coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats:

“When you have to make very difficult decisions, the broader the baseline from which you work, the more you are able to do these things. If no party has won an overall majority then it will have to work with another party. And as you work through the options, do not rule out that you have a grand coalition.”
Unlikely as it sounds there may be something in it for both Parties

  • The result in GE2015 could result in a hung Parliament where  the Lib Dems lose so many seats a Coalition with them wil not give either Labour or Tories an overall majority
  •  Neither will have any desire  to placate the SNP and would hope that a Unionist Press would ceaselessly attack the SNP and swing Scottish  voters from them that Labour's hegemony in Scotland is restored.
  •  Neither really have given any indication that they have any desire to scrap the Austerity programme which  would be the key demand of the Plaid.SNP,Green Bloc.
  •  The same applies to the Bloc calls for scraping Trident.
  •  The threat from Ukip will be measured by the result in GE2010  but a referendum say in 2017 could result in a Pro-Europe vote stifling Ukip .
  • They can resist calls for Proportional representation even if it becomes clear hung Parliaments will now be the norm under FTP
  • With the fixed term parliament rule it would take the agreement of both Labour and Tories to join together in forcing enough of a majority to force a General Election by probably engineering a No confidence  but that would probably mean that the largest pf these parties looking  at polls to see them well ahead  but the likely scenario is they will  for five years and there will be many in both parties  desperate for a Ministerial position

 The formation of such a government would unlikely to be popular  but Unionist who dominate both parties will feel its worth it and both will hope there will be a desire for Two Party Politics by 2020 and even if they were to loose the chance of a comeback in 2025 my exist.

Such a Coalition will probably not exist immediately after a hung parliament in May but with no prospect og going to the country again in October as Labour did in 1974 and at least one probably seeking a new leader  and Labour not wanting to damage thier prospects in the 2016 elections in wales and Scotland. October 2016 m\ay see a Tory/Lab coalition . God Help us all.


 





4 comments:

  1. There are lots of reasons why it probably wont happen, but the potetial benefits for Plaid Cymru, Greens and smaller parties would be huge.

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  2. suggesting that such a 'coalition' is possible says more about the political trajectory of revolting blairites like stuart than it does about what's actually likely to happen after the next general election. Not content with extinguishing socialism in the labour party it would appear the CIA wing of the labour party are now intent upon embarking on a course of action that would make even ramsey macdonald flinch.

    under stuart's plan cruel policies like the bedroom tax would be maintained, austerity policies would be further entrenched and the conservative right would be able to pursue their long held dream of completely dismantling the welfare state.

    stuart is a member of the right wing henry jackson society, and she supported george bush in the us presidential campaigns......nuff said.

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    1. Labour's new Scotish leaderJim Murphy is also a member of the Henry Jacson Soceity which speaks volumes

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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