Saturday, 28 March 2015

By-Elections report. No joy for Plaid but SNP win 3 out of 4.

There was only oneb by -  election im Wales this week  amd saw spme cheer for the Tories as they sek to defend the marfinal Vale of Glamorgan  in May. .Information from Aldc and Political betting 


VALE OF GLAMORGAN UA, LLANTWIT MAJOR- 26TH MARCH 2015

March 26, 2015

Conservative 1,016 [40.8%; +18.7%]
Llantwit Major First I1,004 [40.3%; -15.8%]
Labour 378 [15.2%; +0.5%]
Plaid Cymru 95 [3.8%; -3.5%]
Majority: 12
Conservative gain from Llantwit Major First Independent
Percentage change since 2012


This is I believe the only Tory win in Wales since the 5010 election


Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected

Llantwit First: John 2,068 E, Hacker 1,603 E, Williams 1,490 E, Geary 1,327 E (57%)
Conservatives: Clifford 813, Austin 759, Downe 544, Grant 536 (23%)
Labour: Price 541, Beech 502, Batchelor 471, Denman 411 (17%)
Plaid Cymru: Stephens 269 (2%)

Obviously Llantwit Major was never going to be an area where Labour or Plaid would create a shock.

But the same could have ben said of parts of Scotland for the SNP .

Bit on Thursday there was Four By-elections in Scotland and if pundits were hoping for some kind of indication that the Polls were misleading and the SNP were not going to make a mahor break through they were to be disappointed/ These elections were held under STV  so analysis is a bit harder but the numbers speak for themselves.

March 26, 2015
First Preference votes listed below:
SNP 1,485 [59.5%; +5.6%]Independent 696 [27.9%; -8.2%]
Conservative 315 [12.6%; +2.6%]
SNP gain from IndependentPercentage change since 2012
Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected
Independent: McKay 648 E, MacKay 557 E (48%)
Scottish National Party: McDonald 967 E, McDonald 169 (45%)
Conservative: Gambles 179 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated: Norman Calder (Ind), Tim Eagle (Con), Sonya Warren (SNP

March 26, 2015
First preference votes listed below:
SNP 2,539 [55.3%; +24.6%]Labour 1,643 [35.8%; -10.7%]
Conservative 202 [4.4%; -0.7%]
UKIP 146 [3.2%; +3.2%]
LD Jane Liaton 61 [1.3%; -1.4%]
[Independents [0.0%; -15%]]
Turnout: 32.59%
SNP gain from LabourPercentage change since 2012
Scottish National Party: Brown 910 E, Walker 349, Grant 941 E (42%)
Labour: Craik 708 E, Campbell 1,424 E (41%)
Independents: Robertson 147, Taylor 192 (7%)
Scottish Pensioners Party: Dawson 271 (5%)
Conservative: Irvine 155 (3%)
Liberal Democrat: Adamson 83 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Martin Green (UKIP), Jane Liston (Lib Dem), Alan Seath (Lab), Craig Walker (SNP), John Wheatley (Con)
March 26, 2015
First Preference votes listed below:
SNP 1620 [43.4%;+23.5%]
Labour 1009 [27.1%;+8.8%]
Ind 756 [20.3%;-38.6%]
Con 255 [6.8%;+3.9]
Green 90 [2.4%;+2.4]
SNP hold
Percentage change since 2012
SNP seat, Cause: disqualification.
Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected
Independent: Borrowman 2,541 E (57%)
Scottish National Party: Williamson 168, Hutton 861 E (23%)
Labour: Dixon 788 E (17%)
Conservative: Kerr 125 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Ian Burgess (Con), Jenny Johnson (Green), Sarah King (SNP), Scott MacKay (Ind), Andrew McGuire (Lab)

March 26, 2015
First preference votes listed below:
Independent 437 [59.1%; +13.8%]
SNP 302 [40.9%; +15.5%]
Labour [0.0%; -29.3%]]
Independent gain from LabourPercentage change since 2012
Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected
Independents: Taylor 93, MacLean 75, Beaton 212 E, Robertson 316 E (65%)
Labour: Campbell 204 E (19%)
Scottish National Party: Walker 177 (16%)

Even the EILEAN SIAR  could not have come as a dispointment to the SNP as the council concil  tend to back Independents.
: Independents 21, Scottish National Party 7, Labour 3 (Independent majority of 11)

In four Byelections  thge SNP gained 2 seats ,held 1 and lost none .and the media and most political pundits can't see or ignore the significance,,

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