Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Ieauan Wyn Jones to stand down


The BBC have announced  that he former leader of Plaid Cymru, Ieuan Wyn Jones, is to stand down from his Ynys Mon seat, triggering a by-election, BBC Wales understands.

He is expected to announce he is standing down for a new career away from politics.

Although it is no surprise that he intends to stand down as Ynys Non AM  it is that he intends to leave early and not wait until the next Assembly elections in  2016.

He may have been influenced by Plaids good showing in the recent Anglesey Council elections.
Election results by party
Party nameSeats won% of votes
 Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales1232%
 Annibynnol / Independent920%
 Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru317%
 Independent25%
 Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru15%
 Independent / Annibynnol13%
 Annibynnol12%
11%
 UK Independence Party / Plaid Annibyniaeth y DU07%
 Welsh Conservative Party Candidate/Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru06%
Turnout:51%

The last  election saw Ieuan Wyn with a comfortable 12:2 Majority over the Conservatives 

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Ynys Môn[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Plaid CymruIeuan Wyn Jones9,96941.4+1.7
ConservativePaul Williams7,03229.2+16.2
LabourJoe Lock6,30726.2+8.8
Liberal DemocratsRhys Taylor7593.2−0.2
Majority2,93712.2
Turnout24,06748.6
Plaid Cymru holdSwing−7.3
But all Parties seem to have benefited from the abscense of Maverick Independent (and former Tory AM)Peter Rogers.
Welsh Assembly Election 2007: Ynys Môn[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Plaid CymruIeuan Wyn Jones10,65339.7+2.3
IndependentPeter Rogers6,26123.3+23.3
LabourJonathan Edward N. Austin4,68117.4−6.4
ConservativeJames Paul Robert Roach3,48013.0−15.5
Liberal DemocratsMrs. Mandi L. Abrahams9123.4−4.9
UKIPFrancis C. Wykes8333.1+2.2
Majority4,39216.4
Turnout26,82051.8


P laid should be confident of winning here but probably  be wary of the Conservatives who can argue that they are the main opposition to Labour in the Assembly and Labour poor showing in the Council elections are unlikely to be repeated in the forthcoming by election

After all they hold the Parliamentary seat
General Election 2010: Ynys Môn [5][6]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
LabourAlbert Owen11,49033.4−1.3
Plaid CymruDylan Rees9,02926.2−4.9
ConservativeAnthony Ridge-Newman7,74422.5+11.5
Liberal DemocratMatt Wood2,5927.5+0.7
IndependentPeter Rogers2,2256.5−8.2
UKIPElaine Gill1,2013.5+2.5
ChristianDavid Owen1630.5+0.5
Majority2,4617.1


Attenton now will turn to Party Nominations ,

Helydd Fychan may well have been a leading choice for Plaid  but she has recently announced that she is seeking the nomination for the Arfon  seat

This will be risky for Plaid but  a comfortable win will boost the party immensely  but a loss could be disastrous so expect Labour in particular to pull out the stops.

The By election will not be for a few months so eyes will be on the Island for a while 



6 comments:

  1. It's going to be Plaid or Labour. Tories have collapsed on Anglesey for some reason.

    There will be no "comfortable win" for anyone Glyn. It's going to be neck and beck and either Plaid or Labour would win it by a handful.

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  2. I'm nervous about this. Why announce it now.

    I'm not a parcticular fan of Heledd Fychan but it makes it difficult now for her to put her hat in the ring. Ieuan could have waited a month to announce this.

    I hope to God Plaid Môn aren't going to split again like they did when IWJ stood down as MP. IWJ should know that and should make sure it doesn't and can't happen again. He could have announced this last week or in a month's time.

    This is either very stupid / anti Heledd Fychan / or lacking in political sense.

    Also, after Plaid Môn's miserable failure not to form an administraion on the island by allowing Labour to go into coalition with the Indy's Plaid have left themselves out in the cold. Watch Labour position themselves as the 'anti Nationalist' vote and appeal to Tories and LD to lend their vote. Where are Plaid's extra votes going to come from.

    In any case, Plaid need a strong candidate and someone who could be Cabinet material in the National Government.

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  3. Shame, I'm a fan. It's another one of Plaid's better AMs that has announced he is to go.

    He was part of Plaid's negotiations team that secured the Park. Now, approx a year later, he will be getting paid to run it. If this was the actions of another party AM, I'm sure you might have raised that point?

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  4. I don't think it can poossibly be argued that 32% of the votes in the council elections was a "good showing". Fewer than one in three electors chose Plaid.

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    1. Well Yes but compared to Labour Conservative and Liberal Democrats it was spetacular.

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  5. "Glyn18 June 2013 19:20

    I don't think it can poossibly be argued that 32% of the votes in the council elections was a "good showing". Fewer than one in three electors chose Plaid. "

    You don't understand. Because of the independents, all parties have their vote depressed in the locals. This would have been Plaid's best ever result on the island by a country mile and you can't call it anything other than a "good showing".

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