Saturday, 30 July 2016

Revival of Lib Dems by them doing nothing.

Are the Liberal Democrats experiencing a revival ?

Certainly there have been a series of recent Byelection gains and comfortable holds on local councils to the delight of Harry Hatfield who perhaps deserves to his sterling work on reporting on them  over at Political Betting and the Lib Dems  website.

The most recent  Welsh Election was on Newport City Council where they retained their only seat .
St Julian’s (Lib Dem defence) on Newport

Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 37, Conservatives 10, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 24)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,020981, 957 (46%)
Liberal Democrats 958, 873, 863 (42%)
Conservatives 299, 266, 243 (13%)
Liberal Democrat 948 (54% +12%),
Labour 432 (24% -22%),
Ukip 156 (9%, no candidate in 2012),
Conservative 135 (8% -5%),
Plaid Cymru 71 (4%, no candidate in 2012), 
Green Party 25 (1%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 516 (30%) on a swing of 17% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Popular councillor Ed Townsend  had represented St Julian’s Ward as a Liberal Democrat since 2004 and was the deputy leader of the council from 2008 to 2012 being the only Libersl Democrat to survive the blood bath onthe council where they lost eight seats in 2013

Mr Townsend, who was described as a ‘champion’ of the area and completely dedicated to residents, died at his home in May aged 64 following a short illness.
Standing for the Liberal Democrats  and winner was Mr Townsend’s wife, Carmel Roseanne Townsend.
So the Lib Dems must have be odds on favourites to retain the seat.

Nevertheless it was the sort of vote they experienced pre 2010 and their disastrous time of the Con/Lib Deen coalition, and Ukip gaining the vote of the disgruntled electorate.

They now face a  excellent chance in a forthcoming bylection on Plasnewydd ward  on Cardiff Council which previously was a stronghold for them after the death of Laboutr Councillor Mohammad Javed

Plasnewydd - results
Election CandidatePartyVotes%
 Sue LentLabour153511%Elected
 Daniel De'AthLabour143810%Elected
 Mary McGarryLabour143610%Elected
 Mohammad JavedLabour141310%Elected
 Rodney BermanLiberal Democrats136210%Not elected
 Geraldine NicholsLiberal Democrats13149%Not elected
 Richard JerrettLiberal Democrats12979%Not elected
 Elgan MorganLiberal Democrats12869%Not elected
 Tony MatthewsGreen5354%Not elected
 Askor AliPlaid Cymru5054%Not elected
 Mohammed HannanConservative4343%Not elected
 Edward ParishPlaid Cymru3442%Not elected
 Ian MullisPlaid Cymru3382%Not elected
 Enid HarriesConservative2322%Not elected
 Hannah MoscropConservative1931%Not elected
 Aled Jones-PritchardConservative1741%Not elected
 Marc GonzalezLabour1711%Not elected

 failure to regain one of the seats would be a disaster for  the Liberal Democrats. 

So at the moment the Liberal Democrats strategy seems to be to  be rather like a Doctor who faced with a patient complaint that he or she can't diagnose  is to do nothing and hope for the  body to cure itself 

The Lib Dems seem happy to let the other parties gain the negative publicity.

Perhaps exemplified by Peter Blacks  fascination  with Cats 

We can only speculate what the Lib Dem strategy  will then be after the Labour Leadership elections

If Corbyn wins, expect a move to Blairites particularly  members of the PLP to effect to them in a erun of the SDP/Lib alliance of the 1980 .

However if Owen Smith wins , then  the Lib Dems will declare that they are the Progressive Radical party that many of Corbyn's supporters  want .

However knowing the Lib Dems they will do both depending on what area of the UK they are standing.

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