Are the Liberal Democrats experiencing a revival ?
Certainly there have been a series of recent Byelection gains and comfortable holds on local councils to the delight of Harry Hatfield who perhaps deserves to his sterling work on reporting on them over at Political Betting and the Lib Dems website.
The most recent Welsh Election was on Newport City Council where they retained their only seat .
St Julian’s (Lib Dem defence) on Newport
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 37, Conservatives 10, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 24)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,020, 981, 957 (46%)
Liberal Democrats 958, 873, 863 (42%)
Conservatives 299, 266, 243 (13%)
Liberal Democrat 948 (54% +12%),
Labour 432 (24% -22%),
Ukip 156 (9%, no candidate in 2012),
Conservative 135 (8% -5%),
Plaid Cymru 71 (4%, no candidate in 2012),
Green Party 25 (1%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 516 (30%) on a swing of 17% from Labour to Liberal Democrat
Popular councillor Ed Townsend had represented St Julian’s Ward as a Liberal Democrat since 2004 and was the deputy leader of the council from 2008 to 2012 being the only Libersl Democrat to survive the blood bath onthe council where they lost eight seats in 2013
So the Lib Dems must have be odds on favourites to retain the seat.
Nevertheless it was the sort of vote they experienced pre 2010 and their disastrous time of the Con/Lib Deen coalition, and Ukip gaining the vote of the disgruntled electorate.
They now face a excellent chance in a forthcoming bylection on Plasnewydd ward on Cardiff Council which previously was a stronghold for them after the death of Laboutr Councillor Mohammad Javed
|Rodney Berman||Liberal Democrats||1362||10%||Not elected|
|Geraldine Nichols||Liberal Democrats||1314||9%||Not elected|
|Richard Jerrett||Liberal Democrats||1297||9%||Not elected|
|Elgan Morgan||Liberal Democrats||1286||9%||Not elected|
|Tony Matthews||Green||535||4%||Not elected|
|Askor Ali||Plaid Cymru||505||4%||Not elected|
|Mohammed Hannan||Conservative||434||3%||Not elected|
|Edward Parish||Plaid Cymru||344||2%||Not elected|
|Ian Mullis||Plaid Cymru||338||2%||Not elected|
|Enid Harries||Conservative||232||2%||Not elected|
|Hannah Moscrop||Conservative||193||1%||Not elected|
|Aled Jones-Pritchard||Conservative||174||1%||Not elected|
|Marc Gonzalez||Labour||171||1%||Not elected|
failure to regain one of the seats would be a disaster for the Liberal Democrats.
So at the moment the Liberal Democrats strategy seems to be to be rather like a Doctor who faced with a patient complaint that he or she can't diagnose is to do nothing and hope for the body to cure itself
The Lib Dems seem happy to let the other parties gain the negative publicity.
Perhaps exemplified by Peter Blacks fascination with Cats
We can only speculate what the Lib Dem strategy will then be after the Labour Leadership elections
If Corbyn wins, expect a move to Blairites particularly members of the PLP to effect to them in a erun of the SDP/Lib alliance of the 1980 .
However if Owen Smith wins , then the Lib Dems will declare that they are the Progressive Radical party that many of Corbyn's supporters want .
However knowing the Lib Dems they will do both depending on what area of the UK they are standing.