Tuesday, 12 July 2016

A November Election could destroy a new Labour leader in months

This supposed to be nearly  the silly season, the period lasting for a few summer months typified by the emergence of frivolous news stories in the media when Parliament and the Law Courts are not sitting (about August and September)".
With the Tories settling for a Coronation  rather a nine week bitter leadership contest the prospect of a early General  Election in November grows 
After the 2010 general election, the coalition government enacted the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011  
However Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
In Germany n .2005 SDP Chancellor Schröder orchestrated a motion of confidence with the aim of triggering an early federal election following the defeat of his SPD in Germany's most populous state

Though Prime Minister May would probably have to rely on the support  of opposition  MPs  o ger a 2/3 vote.

Since nearly every party then this seems possible but where does this leave Labour?

With Claims that Pontypridd MP Owen Smith has resolved to run for the leadership of the Labour party, could he be the challenger to Jeremy Corbyn or could he be crowned by the end of this month in the same way Prime Minister May was.
Mr Smith and Ms Eagle are understood to have held talks about one them running as a “unity” candidate
Sp could Ms Eagle withdraw and Mr Smith e the only candidate with Jeremy Corbyn  failing to get the backing of 51 MPs as some claim he needs.
However any candidate for the Leadership must know that a diverse  and bitter leadership campaign or the exclusion of Corbyn with the prospect of November Election  could be disastrous for the Party .
Indeed there must be concern among any challenger that if they won then their leadership could only last a few months  and end after a humiliation at the polls.
It looks like a number of people in the Westminster Bubble will not be getting a holiday  this  Summer.

2 comments:

  1. Any snap General Election called by Ms May in the next 12 months would certainly be catastrophic and quite possibly terminal for Labour.
    This is in effect her trump 'get out of jail' card as she gears up for the legislative equivalent of withdrawal from Vietnam - a parliamentary saga that will put Maastricht in the shade - with a majority lower than John Major enjoyed back in 1993. An election was never a way out for Major as from Black Weds on the Tories would clearly have been beaten by Smith or Blair's Labour.
    Unless one expects the Tories to voluntarily change the electoral system fundamental reform seems as distant at present as at any time in the previous century.

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  2. Was amazed to see the likes of labour - and plaid - use theresa may's accession to number 10 to call for a general election. With labour tearing itself to pieces, parties flat broke and many of their activists apparently exhausted (least thats the excuse they gave for doing f*** all in the eu referendum)if a GE were held now the grim liklehood would be a landslide tory government.

    As things stand this is a very weak tory government, indeed its already been defeated a number of times at westminister. Furthermore its a tory government still riven with bitter divisions following the eu referendum.

    Surely far better to keep than in a stranglehold for the next 4 years and try to derail their most reactionary legislation than give them a quick opportunity for a 3 figure majority?

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