" Assuming that Welsh Labour stayed with the Corbyn-led entity the MPs would have to decide whether they threw in their lot with their PLP colleagues or whether they swallowed their pride and effectively retracted their support for the motion of no confidence in Corbyn.
It’s difficult to imagine the likes of Chris Bryant, Wayne David, Ian Lucas and Mark Tami – and quite a few more – backing Corbyn in such circumstances, so they could be in at the beginning of a breakaway party which would be committed to selecting candidates to stand against official Welsh Labour at the next Assembly election.
If the bulk of the PLP decided to form a breakaway party it would be likely to face huge challenges.
Labour, for all its current difficulties, remains a strong brand.
Those who may find themselves gravitating towards a new entity would firstly have to come up with a name.For obvious reasons “SDP” would be off the table.
More crucially, it would need to get a substantial local support base.
With the upsurge in Labour Party membership in the run-up to last year’s leadership election and since, Jeremy Corbyn supporters are strong in many constituency parties.It may be that a breakaway party could attract donors – though not from the trade unions – but while they may be able to pay for leaflets that doesn’t mean there would necessarily be the bodies to deliver them.
The party has miraculously managed to retain nearly half of the Assembly’s seats, despite a significant decline in voting support.Its dominant position in the Assembly could not survive a formal split, with some AMs backing Corbyn’s Labour Party and others supporting the breakaway model.He goes on ....
Just like the MPs, AMs would have to decide which of the rival parties they backFor Plaid Cymru, a Labour split could be the catalyst it needs to make the giant leap forward that has eluded it since it was formed 91 years ago".
"....Does the Labour Party really want the scenario I have described to play out? No, is the answer.
But sometimes people get carried along with an unstoppable ... I was going to use the word “momentum”, which is either extremely apt or wholly inappropriate.When thousands of idealists joined Labour to show their support for Jeremy Corbyn, they didn’t expect the position to develop to the one the party finds itself in now.Mind you if Labour were to split we would still have wo arch Unionist Parties opposed to increased devolution to Wales , with neither side offering anything substantial that even an Plaid Coalition./SNP Green alliance with one side in the Westminster or a Plaid Assembly Coalition in the Bay would gain nuch for Wales.
What’s clear is that it’s unsustainable for a party leader to be at loggerheads with the MPs they are supposed to lead at Westminster.
And what’s even clearer is that no party in such a mess can expect to gain power – or, in the Welsh context, retain it".
But the argument seems to be "Do not vote for Jeremy Corbyn because we in the legislature are prepared to split the party rather than so.
This will be the Media argument in order to stop Corbyn so that Labour elect a leader who will listen the likes of Murdoch rather than their membership/
If that is the case then what is the point of having a democratic election among its membership if the Parliamentary Party make it clear.
Meanwhile Owen Smith will announce his candidature Today presenting himself as a Unity candidate which I thought that was what Angela Eagle was claiming.
TWO UNITY CANDIDATES!
Mean while I wonder if the Media will point out that Owen Smith will have the same problem as Stephen Crabb in that . Although they have been very slow in using it thus far, the new English Votes for English Laws (EVEL) procedure in Westminster is going to mean the leader of the Opposition will not be able to vote on some Bills affecting England.
As Owen is likely to be the Media darling at least for the period of the contest I doubt it will be raised in the same way it was for Stephen Crabb,