Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Plaid see a rise in support amongst the political turmoil.

With the turmoil amongst the Political Parties it seems that Labour may be the biggest losers in Wa;es according tj the latest opinion poll. Whilst Plaid seem to be experience a big wing its way.

As usual I recommend you read Professor Roger Scully  on elections in Wales for his in depth amalysis   These are among the key findings from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since last month’s EU referendum. 

First, Westminster. Woth a early Gemeral election on the cards.

 Here are the figures from our new poll (with changes from the last Barometer poll, conducted at the beginning of June, indicated in brackets):

Labour 34% (-5)
Conservative 23% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 16% (+2)
UKIP 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
Others 3% (+1)


Taking the  we take the changes to party support since the May 2015 general election implied by this poll  Proffesor Scully  applies them uniformly across Wales and get the following projected result (with all seats won by a party at last year’s general election remaining in their hands unless stated otherwise):
PartySeatsVotes
TotalGainedLostNetTotal%Change (%)
Labour12512-1552,47336.9+0.6
Conservative1130+3407,81327.2+1.1
UKIP0000204,33013.6+11.2
Plaid Cymru3000181,70412.1+0.8
Liberal Democrats102-297,7836.5-13.6
Green000038,3442.6+2.1
Socialist Labour Party00003,4810.2+0.2
TUSC00001,7800.1+0.1
Others000010,3550.7-0.5
Total401,498,063
despite a 4/% increase in their projected vote Plaid do not see a similar surge in their seats Whilst Ukip  also on 16% in the pol will still be without a seat and Labour who see a fall in support gain one seat.

Labour: 26 seats (gaining Gower and Vale of Clwyd, but losing Ynys Môn)
Conservative: 9 seats (losing Gower and Vale of Clwyd)
Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)

For the Assembly there is a simalar pattern
 Fir the constituency there is little swing  on the constituency vote which may suggest that Plaid Westminster vote gai is among those who back them in the Assembly.
Labour 32% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 23% (no change)
Conservative 19% (+1)
UKIP 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (no change)
Others 3% (no change)

the findings for the Assembly regional vote show a broadly similar picture: and that Plaid may have maximised it vote for now,
Labour 29% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 24% (+3)
Conservative 18% (no change)
UKIP 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (no change)
Others 8% (+10)
The 2016 reults was 
elsh Assembly election, 2016
PartiesAdditional member systemTotal seats
ConstituencyRegion
Votes %+/−Seats+/−Votes %+/−Seats+/−Total+/− %
Labour353,86634.7-7.627-1319,19631.5-5.42029-148.3
Plaid Cymru209,37620.5+1.36+1211,54820.8+3.06012+120.0
Conservative215,59721.1-3.960190,84618.8-3.75-311-318.3
UKIP127,03812.5+12.500132,13813.0+8.57+77+711.7
Liberal Democrats78,1657.7-2.91065,5046.5-1.60-41-41.7
Green25,2022.5+2.30030,2113.0-0.500000.0
Independent7,0320.7-0.6001,5770.2000000.0
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party44,2864.4+4.400000.0
Monster Raving Loony5,7430.6+0.400000.0
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts2,0400.2+0.000000.0
Welsh Communist Party2,4520.2+0.000000.0
Others3,1070.3-1.1009,2020.9-5.000000.0

According yo Professor Scully it would mean the make up of the Assembly would  read
Labour 26 seats (24 constituency, 2 regional) -3
Plaid Cymru 15 seats (10 constituency, 5 regional)+3
Conservative 10 seats (5 constituency, 5 regional)-1
UKIP 8 seats (8 regional)+1
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)no change
Of course we are living in turbulent times and we can expect some volatile Timed . bit Plaid seem to be benefiting from a having  whether this will change we can only wonder . It is unlikely that the Conservatives will elect a leader from the Welsh constituency but it does appear that Pontypridd Labour MP Owen Smith is waiting for someone to wield the knife into Jeremy Corbyn before presenting himself as a compromise candidate.self .
How much effect on a Plaid vote this would mean we can only wonder.

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