Wednesday, 5 May 2010

What will happen after tomorrows vote?

The possibility still exists of a Hung parliament from the recent polls the possible outcome  is that we have:
A Conservative government with a small majority of less than 20 seat.
Reasonably likely. But will mean they are still open to by-election defeats. There will be one seat not contested tomorrow. Thirsk & Malton . In the event of a Hung Parliament this may be decisive..... 7/10.
A Conservative minority government that will attempt to govern on a similar basis to the SNP government in Edinburgh on day by day, issue by issue basis.
Possible but any by-election loss could result in a no confidence vote.... 5/10.
A Conservative minority government which enters into an understanding with the Lib Dems but no formal coalition at least for the near future. 

Unlikely that the Lib Dems would support a position in which they could not gain credit for any popular measures....4/10.
A Conservative Government that forms a coalition with the Lib Dems which promises a referendndum on PR. This may be Cameron’s only option. In the hope any proposal would be rejected by the electorate.... 6/10.
A Conservative Government that forms a coalition with the Lib Dems which where there is no referendum on PR but another review.

 It would be unlikely that Clegg would fall for this one again; but the lure of a cabinet seat will be strong.... 5/10.
A Labour- Libdem government with the promise of a referendum on PR but AV not STV.
This depends on the size of the Labour vote if it’s high then they may join together on a reform tick....6/10.
A Labour- Libdem government with the promise of an open referendum on PR.
If the Labour vote is low then this may be the only option open to them.... 7/10.
A Conservative Labour coalition which resist any form of reform as raised on this blog on April 22nd.
Very unlikely but if the Lib Dem and Others hold over 100 seats it may be an option.... 2/10.
A Conservative government that either has a small majority or is just short who call another election within a year.
Quite likely they will be able to raise the funds and outspend all the other parties.... 7/10.


  1. An interesting analysis of options available in the event of a hung parliament. Whatever happens after the election, you can bet on one thing, that the Conservative and Labour leaderships will do everything in their power to avoid reforming the present electoral system.

    The sooner the present system is replaced by PR the better.

    Enjoying the blog - hope you keep it going after the election.

  2. Thank you for comment. I will most certainly be blogging after the election and beyond.