Friday, 12 February 2016

Would a Plaid ,Green and LibDem pact have worked?

It would be interesting to know just when the  " Informal talks" were held between Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Liberal Democrats and the Welsh Greens on a failed attempt at an electoral pact, it has emerged.
Sources told ITV that representatives of the three parties had discussed the idea of working together to present a united alternative to Labour.

Was it recent or was it before the Parties started their selection process in earnest

ITV reported that those involved believed the group could have won as many as 22 AMs through the pact.

It was thought that this, if Labour lost ground, may have given them the opportunity to put together a government.
The talks were reportedly started by Plaid, but fell apart when the Welsh Lib Dems called them off.

Such pacts sometimes  common in Europe where Proportional Representations  looms large and where Parties form their Coalition groupings before the election.

Would such a pact work in Wales

Syniadau has been crunching the numbers
A quick look at the results from 2011 shows that there are five constituency seats that could be won from either Labour or the Tories if the Greens, Plaid and LibDems were able to work together. Ordered by the size of the margin they are:

Cardiff Central
won by Labour with 37.9%, combined three party vote 44.9%

won by the Tories with 34.0%, combined three party vote 40.4%

won by Labour with 39.7%, combined three party vote 41.5%

won by the Tories with 43.7%, combined three party vote 44.9%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
won by the Tories with 35.8%, combined three party vote 33.6%
Of course a lot has changed since 2011. Opinion polls show that the LibDems have plummeted and that UKIP have risen. But UKIP are not likely to win any constituency seats, so whatever they get is irrelevant to winning seats from Labour and the Tories. The LibDem collapse is rather more pertinent. It means that Kirsty Williams will have to fight hard to hold Brecon and Radnor, and could do with all the help she can get. So negotiating an electoral pact could

So it would be probably the LibDems   who benefited the most and possibly the Greens would gain a few seats.

Plaid would by far the Largest Party but even then a coalition  of the Three would not win an over alll majority.

There is no real guarantee that the  electorate would respond in the way that the Prties would hope. 

It might even work in reverse as the electorate treat it as a cynical attempt to manipulate them.

Anyway  its not as if Plaid and the LibDems have been  collaborating  over the last years in the Assembly Chamber.

For such a pact to have worked Plaid, LibDems  and the Greens would have had to have presented a joint vision for the future of the Assembly.

There may be some in all three Parties who are prepared to do so.

But probably it would still be abandoned if any of the Paries see a short term eletctoral gain.

Was it worth it?

Maybe but the secrecy seem to point to the Parties planning a fait accompli which may have cause the membership to revolt.

It might well be best to hope that the willy Welsh Electorate more or less do what the negotiators plan and vote for a Party that may defeat A Labour, Tory or Ukip candidate.

Is that a pig that just flew pass my window?

1 comment:

  1. The tiny wales green contingent shouldn't waste time and londons money standing candidates everywhere just to take votes from plaid. Their membership is Wales is declining since the short lived surge less than 2,500 who can't even manage a quorum at their AGM,!