Tuesday, 16 February 2016

Is Ukip rise in Wales due to media ignoring Us?

Yesterday's Blog on calls by Plaid to the BBC to ensure coverage of the Assembly Elections in their news coverage can well be seen to be justified  with the news that  UKIP is on course for major gains in the Welsh Assembly despite its internal squabbles, according to new polling.

Ukip have virtually no councillors in Wales s, No MPs ,very little grassroots membership and lately have been split over selection of candidates for the said Assembly Elections.

And yet the latest Welsh Political Barometer suggests that UKIP will snatch nine seats in the Senedd, setting up a “three-way fight” for second place in May’s elections.

The polling in the constituency vote section puts in Labour on 34 per cent (-1 since December), Conservatives on 22 per cent (-1), Plaid Cymru on 19 per cent (-1), UKIP on 18 per cent (+3), the Lib Dems unchanged on 5 per cent and other parties down 1 point to 2 per cent.
On the regional list vote, Labour are on 31 per cent (-3) followed by the Conservatives on 22 per cent (-1), Plaid Cymru on 19 per cent (-1) and UKIP on 18 per cent (+2). The Lib Dems are unchanged on 4 per cent with the Greens down one point to 3 per cent and others on 3 per cent.

Replicated universally across Wales, this would indicate the following Assembly breakdown:
Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 12 seats (7 constituency seats + 5 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
UKIP: 9 seats (9 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)

When we bring in the response to rhe EU Referendum? With the referendum becoming likely to be held in June already there seems to be a strong leave majority.

Remain a member of the European Union: 37% (-3)
Leave the European Union: 45% (+3)
Would not vote: 3% (-2)
Don’t Know: 16% (+2)

This means that coverage of the Referendum will dominate the news that the BBC and the rest of the UK media give us  ,even during the Assembly campaign further bolstering Ukip profile , to such an extent they could end up with 12 regional seats .

With mt local SPAR giving out free copies of the SUN on a daily basis many people where I live will be getting their news from a right wing xenophobic  press ,which hardly  even acknowledge Wales exists.

I know our friends in Scotland face an constant barrage from the Unionist media with its SNPBAD coverage ,but i can't help thinking even that is preferable to virtually no news of what Palid stand for.

We are facing 4 years of a big Ukip in the Welsh Assembly where they will squabble will squabble constantly even among themselves probably loosing some AM from their ranks to resignations from the party.

It will lead to calls to abolishthe Assembly from some quarters and may find willing ears.


  1. I am so sorry if this happens, I think it is because sadly you are much more accessible to English immigrants than we are, that they can work elsewhere and travel home to Wales. I fear Ukip, but not the way it seems to be working where you are, they are not credible here in Scotland forget the MEP they won, he would have not made it other than the voting system. In general they lose their deposit. What I fear is them making a breakthrough in England and setting out to destroy not only the Welsh Assembly but also the Scottish Parliament. Let us hope they fall by the wayside.

    1. Unfortunately some of the highest votes achieved by UKIP last May were in constituencies with some of the highest levels of Welsh-born citizens.

      At the end of the day as the late Gwyn Alf Williams often said. It's the bloody Welsh who are the problem"

  2. Do the Welsh political class fully appreciate how bad things are for devolution, I don’t think May’s results will jolt them from their slumber, perhaps they’ll get it a few weeks later Wales votes to leave the EU, strap yourself in things are going to get much, much worse.