Sunday, 3 May 2015

Plaid's top six seats.

Plaid's highest hope in this election is six seats

So what are the chances?


General Election 2010: Arfon[9]
Plaid CymruHywel Williams*9,38336.0+3.9
LabourAlun Pugh7,92830.4−3.5
ConservativeRobin Millar4,41616.9+0.5
Liberal DemocratSarah Green3,66614.1−1.7
UKIPElwyn Williams6852.6+0.7
Plaid Cymru gain from LabourSwing+3.7

At first this looks vulnerable to Labour but it was a new seat taking in a number of Labour voting areas around Bangor and was actually a nominal Plaid gain  Hywel Williams should have the advantage of incumbency here.

Carmathen East and Dinefwr

General Election 2010: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr[9][10]
Plaid CymruJonathan Edwards13,54635.6−10.2
LabourChristine Gwyther10,06526.5−1.8
ConservativeAndrew Morgan8,50622.4+8.7
Liberal DemocratWilliam Powell4,60912.1+2.4
UKIPJohn Atkinson1,2853.4+1.7
Plaid Cymru holdSwing−4.2

Another Plaid Seat that looks vulnerable  but Jonathan Edwards was anew candidate  in 2010 and now has the advantage of incumbency along with the Labour candidate being a member of the council which has evoked some negative  (at the  very least ) publicity 


General Election 2010: Ceredigion[23][24]
Liberal DemocratMark Williams19,13950.0+13.5
Plaid CymruPenri James10,81528.3-7.6
ConservativeLuke Evetts4,42111.6-0.8
LabourRichard Boudier2,2105.8-6.3
UKIPElwyn Williams9772.6N/A
GreenLeila Kiersch6961.8-0.5
Liberal Democrat holdSwing+10.6

2010 saw Mark Williams massively increase his majority and it who have appeared to be a safe sate LibDem seat but that has al changed and Mark can't hope for a strong student vote. Plaid candidate Mike Parker has a strong profile so although it appears a big hurdle Plaid have high hopes here.

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

General Election 2010: Dwyfor Meirionnydd[4][5]
Plaid CymruElfyn Llwyd12,81444.3-6.4
ConservativeSimon Baynes6,44722.3+8.1
LabourAlwyn Humphreys4,02113.9-7.8
Liberal DemocratStephen Churchman3,53812.2+1.3
IndependentLouise Hughes1,3104.5+4.5
UKIPFrank Wykes7762.7+0.3
Plaid Cymru holdSwing-7.3
Plaid have a new candidate here and so lose the incumbency  factor  but Liz Saville-Roberts should have no problem and giving Plaid its first female MP something that the party has ben lacking for so long


General Election 2010: Llanelli[16]
LabourNia Griffith15,91642.5−4.5
Plaid CymruMyfanwy Davies11,21529.9+3.5
ConservativeChristopher Salmon5,38114.4+0.7
Liberal DemocratMyrddin Edwards3,90210.4−2.5
UKIPAndrew Marshall1,0472.8N/A
Labour holdSwing−4.0

Another seat that Plaid had hopes for in 2010 but this is seat where the Plaid challenger Vaughan Williams h has put a huge amount of work into  and may have a higher profile than the sitting MP .this will be the Jewel in the crown if its a god night for Plaid.

Ynys Môn

General Election 2010: Ynys Môn[6][7]
LabourAlbert Owen11,49033.4−1.3
Plaid CymruDylan Rees9,02926.2−4.9
ConservativeAnthony Ridge-Newman7,74422.5+11.5
Liberal DemocratMatt Wood2,5927.5+0.7
IndependentPeter Rogers2,2256.5−8.2
UKIPElaine Gill1,2013.5+2.5
ChristianDavid Owen1630.5+0.5
Labour holdSwing+1.8

I have mentioned incumbency in most of the seats and nowhere is this evidence  clearer. not since  1951 has the incumbent been defeated despite  going  from Liberal-Labour-Tory -Plaid-Labour .  Albert Owen has survived  Plaid onslaughts before . Will he do it one more time?

In al these seats there is a interesting factor of Ukip  which of the parties will their vote switching in any number  to that party. In theory Plaid should be the least affected but you never know.

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