Plaid's highest hope in this election is six seats
So what are the chances?
|General Election 2010: Arfon|
|Plaid Cymru||Hywel Williams*||9,383||36.0||+3.9|
|Liberal Democrat||Sarah Green||3,666||14.1||−1.7|
|Plaid Cymru gain from Labour||Swing||+3.7|
At first this looks vulnerable to Labour but it was a new seat taking in a number of Labour voting areas around Bangor and was actually a nominal Plaid gain Hywel Williams should have the advantage of incumbency here.
Carmathen East and Dinefwr
|General Election 2010: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr|
|Plaid Cymru||Jonathan Edwards||13,546||35.6||−10.2|
|Liberal Democrat||William Powell||4,609||12.1||+2.4|
|Plaid Cymru hold||Swing||−4.2|
Another Plaid Seat that looks vulnerable but Jonathan Edwards was anew candidate in 2010 and now has the advantage of incumbency along with the Labour candidate being a member of the council which has evoked some negative (at the very least ) publicity
|General Election 2010: Ceredigion|
|Liberal Democrat||Mark Williams||19,139||50.0||+13.5|
|Plaid Cymru||Penri James||10,815||28.3||-7.6|
|Liberal Democrat hold||Swing||+10.6|
2010 saw Mark Williams massively increase his majority and it who have appeared to be a safe sate LibDem seat but that has al changed and Mark can't hope for a strong student vote. Plaid candidate Mike Parker has a strong profile so although it appears a big hurdle Plaid have high hopes here.
|General Election 2010: Dwyfor Meirionnydd|
|Plaid Cymru||Elfyn Llwyd||12,814||44.3||-6.4|
|Liberal Democrat||Stephen Churchman||3,538||12.2||+1.3|
|Plaid Cymru hold||Swing||-7.3|
|General Election 2010: Llanelli|
|Plaid Cymru||Myfanwy Davies||11,215||29.9||+3.5|
|Liberal Democrat||Myrddin Edwards||3,902||10.4||−2.5|
Another seat that Plaid had hopes for in 2010 but this is seat where the Plaid challenger Vaughan Williams h has put a huge amount of work into and may have a higher profile than the sitting MP .this will be the Jewel in the crown if its a god night for Plaid.
|General Election 2010: Ynys Môn|
|Plaid Cymru||Dylan Rees||9,029||26.2||−4.9|
|Liberal Democrat||Matt Wood||2,592||7.5||+0.7|
I have mentioned incumbency in most of the seats and nowhere is this evidence clearer. not since 1951 has the incumbent been defeated despite going from Liberal-Labour-Tory -Plaid-Labour . Albert Owen has survived Plaid onslaughts before . Will he do it one more time?
In al these seats there is a interesting factor of Ukip which of the parties will their vote switching in any number to that party. In theory Plaid should be the least affected but you never know.