Wednesday, 28 January 2015

Plaid are still struggling in the Polls.

The Latest  Poll on GE2015 in Wales will read as a disappointment  to Plaid supporters who may have been hoping for  a bit of a surge after the row over leaders debates.

  • Labour 37% (+ 1%)
  • Conservatives 23% (no change)
  • Ukip 16% (-2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 10% (-1%)
  • Greens 8% (+3%)
  • Liberal Democrats 6% (+1%)
  • Others on 1% (-1%).

It may be that  there has been some movement in their Target seats for Plaid to them whilst they have lost some votes to the Greens elsewhere .

People have also been asked  how they would vote for the National Assembly one year after the general election, 

For the constituency vote, the results of the poll were (with changes from our previous poll, in early December in brackets):

  • Labour 34% (-1%)
  • Conservative 21% (-1%)
  • Plaid Cymru 18% (-1%)
  • UKIP 13% (+1%)
  • Liberal Democrats 7% (+1%)
  • Greens 6% (+1%)
  • Others 1% (no change)

Clearly, very little has changed since our last poll, with all the parties seeing changes in their support levels but by amounts that are well within the ‘margin of error’.

On these figures, and assuming uniform national swings across Wales (always a dangerous prediction) , only two constituency seats would change hands from the results in the last Assembly election in May 2011: the Liberal Democrats would gain Cardiff Central from Labour, while Labour would also lose Llanelli to Plaid Cymru.

For the regional list vote,  saw the following results (with changes from our December poll again indicated):

Labour 32% (+1%)
Conservative 20% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 15% (-4%)
UKIP 16% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
Greens 8% (+1%)
Others 2% (no change)

Taking into account both the constituency and list results, this produces the following projected seat outcome for a National Assembly election (with aggregate changes from 2011 indicated in brackets):

  • Labour: 28 (-2): 26 constituency AMs, 2 list AMs
  • Conservative: 10 (-4); 6 constituency AMs, 4 list AMs
  • Plaid Cymru: 9 (-2); 6 constituency AMs, 3 list AMs
  • UKIP: 8 (+8): all list AMs
  • Greens: 3 (+3): all list AMs
  • Liberal Democrats: 2 (-3); 2 constituency AMs

Particularly for Plaid asking people how they would vote in the National Assembly  may result in them  a lower percentage than they would have 100 days before the assembly Elections.

Of course GE2015 will have a major affect on next years assembly Elections. Particularly if we have a hung Parliament.

As the Liberal Democrats have found out being junior partners in a coalition rarely results in increase popularity even if that Government have an aver all approval rating.

But with if the polls are right (and continue) There will be a huge rise in SNP  members in Westminster and Scotland are likely to place constitutional change on the agenda of the next Parliament.

Plaid may well benefit from constantly asking "What about Wales"

Or find themselves  in a Little Englander Media backlash .

We are indeed living in interesting times.


  1. You'd expect Labour, Tories and Lib Dems to stick the boot into Plaid over the pitiful poll results, but the bigger worry are the welsh nationalist blogs gloating that Plaid Cymru could end up losing 1 or 2 of their Westminster seats and ending up as the 5th largest party in the Welsh Assembly behind UKIP and the Green Party of England & Wales.

    If that happens it will prompt the obvious question raised on another blog, has welsh nationalism had run it’s course?, if the polls are to be believed the answer sadly look like Yes.

  2. Annon. 14.42 Plaid Cymru's problem is it is not running a nationalist campaign demanding independence it is telling people to vote Green which they may well do.
    Until they start campaigning for independence there is no point to Plaid Cymru. When they start campaigning for independence they will offer a real alternative.