- Labour 37% (+ 1%)
- Conservatives 23% (no change)
- Ukip 16% (-2%)
- Plaid Cymru 10% (-1%)
- Greens 8% (+3%)
- Liberal Democrats 6% (+1%)
- Others on 1% (-1%).
It may be that there has been some movement in their Target seats for Plaid to them whilst they have lost some votes to the Greens elsewhere .
People have also been asked how they would vote for the National Assembly one year after the general election,
For the constituency vote, the results of the poll were (with changes from our previous poll, in early December in brackets):
- Labour 34% (-1%)
- Conservative 21% (-1%)
- Plaid Cymru 18% (-1%)
- UKIP 13% (+1%)
- Liberal Democrats 7% (+1%)
- Greens 6% (+1%)
- Others 1% (no change)
Clearly, very little has changed since our last poll, with all the parties seeing changes in their support levels but by amounts that are well within the ‘margin of error’.
On these figures, and assuming uniform national swings across Wales (always a dangerous prediction) , only two constituency seats would change hands from the results in the last Assembly election in May 2011: the Liberal Democrats would gain Cardiff Central from Labour, while Labour would also lose Llanelli to Plaid Cymru.
For the regional list vote, saw the following results (with changes from our December poll again indicated):
Labour 32% (+1%)
Conservative 20% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 15% (-4%)
UKIP 16% (+1%)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
Greens 8% (+1%)
Others 2% (no change)
Taking into account both the constituency and list results, this produces the following projected seat outcome for a National Assembly election (with aggregate changes from 2011 indicated in brackets):
- Labour: 28 (-2): 26 constituency AMs, 2 list AMs
- Conservative: 10 (-4); 6 constituency AMs, 4 list AMs
- Plaid Cymru: 9 (-2); 6 constituency AMs, 3 list AMs
- UKIP: 8 (+8): all list AMs
- Greens: 3 (+3): all list AMs
- Liberal Democrats: 2 (-3); 2 constituency AMs
Particularly for Plaid asking people how they would vote in the National Assembly may result in them a lower percentage than they would have 100 days before the assembly Elections.
Of course GE2015 will have a major affect on next years assembly Elections. Particularly if we have a hung Parliament.
As the Liberal Democrats have found out being junior partners in a coalition rarely results in increase popularity even if that Government have an aver all approval rating.
But with if the polls are right (and continue) There will be a huge rise in SNP members in Westminster and Scotland are likely to place constitutional change on the agenda of the next Parliament.
Plaid may well benefit from constantly asking "What about Wales"
Or find themselves in a Little Englander Media backlash .
We are indeed living in interesting times.