Friday, 1 January 2016

Sorry, but the Omens are not good for the year ahead.

The Year will probably see mixed changes for both  Good or Bad, but we face  an uncertain future.

Bad Year in Blue, Good in Red

(1) A Xenophobic Buffoon called Donald Trump become President of the USA plunging the World into even more chaos than it is now . The  alternative of Hillary Clinton , hardly fills me with hope.


Bernie  Saunders ,wins the US Presidential Election or at least shows the Democrats that they should at least listen to the Millions of Liberal Americans and not the Republican right wing Fox crap that they seem afraid of.

(2) There is no progress for peace in the Middle East and the death toll will rise and we in the UK and  we end up as the old protest song goes

PETE SEEGER - WAIST DEEP IN THE BIG MUDDY LYRICS





 There is a major initiative to solve the whole Middle East Question and peace deals in Syria and other Middle East Countries, leading to the elimination of ISIS.

(3) The number if refuges continues prompting a rise in xenophobic parties in Europe, like the National Front in France and Ukip showing its true colours on these Islands.


The prospect of Peace encourages people to stay or return and rebuild their  broken Nations.


(4) There a coup successful against Jeremy Corbyn and a Blarite leader emerges, who backed by the media, ousts the left by convincing members that the new leader will win in 2020.

Corbyn carries on and realises that he will need the support of progressive parties, if he wants to push forward a radical change in the UK.

(5) The SNPbad campaign by the Unionist media continues and the SNP falters with "Scottish Labour  making a comeback.

The people  of Scotland ignore the Unionist Media and the SNP and Greens become the only Parties to make gains in May elections for the Scottish Parliament.


(6) Ukip make big gains in the Welsh Assembly Elections ,Plaid make no progress and people begin to ask what is the point of a largely toothless Legislature. 

Ukip prove to be a damp squib and Plaid make a surprising  gain of seats  to lead them if not the largest party the start of an unstoppable surge to lead them matching the SNP successes. Increasing voters faith in the Assembly.

(7) The European  referendum goes ahead with the out side resorting to a "Project Fear" campaign which leads people confused about the truth.


The European  referendum goes ahead with the  remaon  side resorting to a "Project Fear" campaign which leadfs people confused about the truth. (Oh bugger its the same)

Apart from (5) I think the Blue outcome is more likely but don't get too gloomy it may all change for the better.

 

8 comments:

  1. Glyn nae chance of blue 5 happening, if SNP Bad was working it would be showing in the polls by now, so I would scratch that. Trouble for Labour is they have fairly scunnered (sickened) their former supporters to the point that only the insane and by that I mean Rangers Supporters (apologies to those who are not insane) will follow them. We may well see the rest happening but not this.

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  2. Why do you think "The people of Scotland ignore the Unionist Media and the SNP and Greens become the only Parties to make gains in May elections for the Scottish Parliament." would be bad? Not for me it wouldn't.

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  3. Sorry I put both 5 scenarios in blue . I have now corrected it . In my defence it was written after a late night.

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  4. There are ebbs and flows, but look at the long term trends. I guess you are about my age. In my life time we have had Cardiff designated as our capital in 1955. Jim Griffiths led the Labour devolutionists and became the first Secretary of State for Wales in 1964. The Carmarthen by-election frames political discourse in 1966. The Wales TUC is established in1974 and at the same time the 3 Plaid MPs move discussion so the WDA is established in 1976 and in 1979 the Pneumoconiosis Compensation Act comes into force. The 1979 referendum stalls the changes. In 1982 S4C goes on air. In 1987 the National Curriculum is established with specific Welsh orders for most subjects. The growth of Welsh medium education a pace. Who in the1950s would think that there could be a time when three Welsh medium secondary would be operating in Cardiff! Two successful referenda. Plaid government ministers and three county councils with Plaid leaders. Plaid elected members at every level of government for at least the last 15 years(Not counting the Lords). Might be some difficult times ahead but the direction of travel is clear.

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    1. 2015 was bad enough, 2016 is shaping up to be the year of the fascist and bigot. It’s almost as if the politicians want it that way.

      As for Wales’s progress it can all be undone as fast as it came about and we don’t all have another 60 or 70 years to wait for Plaid Cymru to push for and ‘achieve’ more, as things stand the odds of the Welsh Assembly being abolished are higher than Welsh independence.

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  5. Suggest you look at Elections in Wales hosted by Roger Scully for some positive political news on the local government front. Last year there were 27 county council by elections. In the last seven elections UKIP were unable to field any candidates. Over the entire year they were able to record 1,133 votes and stood in seven elections. Plaid, Tories and Labour were the only parties that stood in most of the elections (Lab : 22, Plaid: 21 & Tory : 19). Labour showed an average swing of - 7% over the year. Plaid showed an average swing of 6.1% and the Tories showed an average swing of 4.1%.

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    1. I have seen this . I am not sure how you can extrapolate future voting Intentions from council elections but it is a bit more encouraging.

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