Sunday, 13 April 2014

Andrew RT Davies "coalition of ideas". hardly likely.

There's something rather odd about  the leader of the Welsh Conservatives telling his  party members they must be open to a "coalition of ideas".

s said the party - which has been in opposition since the Assembly was created in 1999 - needed to listen to ideas from outside.

"I believe Welsh Conservatives are mature enough to look at that coalition of ideas, to look where the best ideas can come from, and to date they've come from the Welsh Conservatives," he said during the second day of the Welsh Conservative conference in Llangollen.
"It means reaching out to anyone who has the best interests of the people of Wales at heart and wants to get us off the bottom of the league table whether it be in health, education or the economy, rather than this over-lording mentality Labour has."


His words will be seen as a hint the party could be open to forming a coalition with other parties after the assembly elections in 2016.

But it seems a trifle early to be calling this after all the the next Assembly election is two years away and we although we may have had a Labour government in power at Westminster  after the 2015 General election and possibly  past it honeymoon period


However current Opinion polls point to Labour being just  short of a majority bur comfortably  ahead of the other parties amd if Ukip were to enter the Assembly with 5 or more seats even a Rainbow Alliance  of Tories,Plaid and the LibDems  and at least the last two would not allow Ukip in the gang  would not be enough  for a majority and it would be odd to see Andrew RT Davies and Leanne Wood in some kind of arrangement where one would be First Minister and the other his/her deputy.

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Others Lead
10–12 February 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 42% 21% 19% 9% 5% 3% 21%
2–4 December 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 43% 19% 20% 9% 7% 3% 23%
18–22 July 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 47% 19% 17% 8% 6% 3% 28%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 46% 21% 17% 10% 5% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency) 949,252 42.3% 25.0% 19.3% 10.6% N/A 2.8

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Others Lead
10–12 February 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 39% 19% 17% 9% 10% 6% 20%
2–4 December 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 40% 19% 15% 9% 10% 7% 21%
18–22 July 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 25% 12% 23% 9% 16% 14% 2%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 26% 14% 26% 8% 13% 13% Tie
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional) 949,388 36.9% 22.5% 17.9% 8.0% 4.6% 10.1

Mr Davies may be right in  calling  the current Welsh Labour government but the likelihood is that this will continue .

If the Polls continue then I suspect it will be the Liberal Democrats who after a drubbing  in 2015 will be seeking to establish some form of new power base and  enter into coalition with Labour and try and claim credit for any reinvigorating that occurs.

The danger for wales will be that with a "lazy" and "tired". Labour Government permanently established in Cardiff Bay disillusionment  with the assembly will grow and unless Plaid can emulate the SNP we may be doomed to see little progress in establishment of real powers or a sense that devolution has led to a a Wales we can be proud of.

No comments:

Post a Comment