Saturday, 6 May 2017

Small political earthquake in Wales nobody particularly harmed.

There was no Political Earthquake in Wales Yesterday;

The full picture has emerged from the local elections - 
Ten councils across Wales now have no overall control, while the Conservatives won control of Monmouthshire and Plaid Cymru retained control in Gwynedd.

Pembrokeshire is controlled by Independents.

The Prediction had  sthis forcast
Labour: -130 seats
Conservatives: +90 seats
Plaid Cymru: +20 seats
Liberal Democrats: No change
Independents/Others: +20 seats

On paper both the Tories  and Plaid made games but in fact these were patchy though  only Plaid exceeded  expectations.
Plaid Cymru1Steady202Increase33
Liberal Democrat0Steady62Decrease11
Llais Gwynedd0Steady6Decrease7
No overall control10Increase1n/an/a
Although Labour lost 107 seats control of councils in Bridgend, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent and the Vale of Glamorgan. They cleverly predicted losses and therefore managed to get the BBC  to claim the big story was  Labour's performance has not been as bad as many predicted.

The party retained control of Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly, Neath Port Talbot and Torfaen as well as the key city councils of Newport, Swansea and Cardiff.

Three of these councils have sen scandal and defections and yet they clung to even increased their majority in some.

Prehaps this reflects the lack of popular local news outlets.

In Wales the party has won Monmouthshire but failed to stage an outright revolution. If it had won Cardiff, Newport and Swansea the scene would be set for a repainting of the electoral map in June.

This failed to happen, and perhaps  the idea that Wales was going to be seen as hardly differing from England is not yet true

There was no epic surge in support for Leanne Wood’s party but it has made progress at a time when the Conservatives have devoured Ukip support and are in pursuit of a landslide.

It has increased its majority in its Gwynedd heartland and won the largest number of seats in Carmarthenshire and Anglesea

The party will take particular encouragement from the result in Neath Port Talbot, where it gained seven seats on 2012, and in Rhondda Cynon Taf where there was a nine seat increase. Plaid cherishes the dream of challenging Labour in its South Wales heartlands and it scored a major breakthrough last year when Ms Wood won the Rhondda’s Assembly seat.

But no expected breakthrough in Cardiff a loss of seats in Caerphilly and the RCT result ay have seen the Rhonda area turn a majority green but the Cynotn Valley  is solidly red and i south former Plaid stronghold like Llantwir Ffadre and Pontyclun saw the Tories win seats .

RCT Election Map 2017

Plaid may have concentrated on tthe Rhondda but has lost major ground in parts of the council

For the Liberal Democrats this election should have been a golden opportunity for the party to show it is on the road to recovery. after heavy losses last time they saw this continue. with a net loss of 11
But o Cardiff, where there has been talk of the Lib Dems taking the Westminster seat of Cardiff Central back from Labour, its share of councillors fell. There were also setbacks in Swansea, Wrexham and Bridgend.

Ukip hvw no seats in Wales whilst the Grens have a sole seat Powis.

To what extent Mrs May calling an General Election affected the Result   is anyone's guess. but may be  those who considered switching  from labour were alarmed at stories of Tory Landslide in Wales.

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