The Tories look set to make deep inroads into South and North Wales. Veteran contrarian Paul Flynn is set to lose while Kevin Brennan is in a dead heat in Cardiff West. Perhaps most strikingly, Owen Smith, who challenged Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership, is within a couple of thousand votes of losing in Pontypridd.
However, as bad as the situation looks, it could be worse. What happened in Scotland does not seem imminent in Wales.
It’s notable that Plaid’s number one target, Ynys Mon, a seat where they finished just 1% behind Labour in 2015 looks set to swing to the Tories rather than them.
The structure of Labour’s problem in Wales is as elsewhere across England: banks of Ukip votes tumbling to the Tories while Jeremy Corbyn turns off traditional Labour voters. Dreadful as this is, it’s still better than Plaid expanding across North Wales, breaking into South Wales and shutting Labour out entirely, as the SNP have in Scotland.
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11 / 71
|High-water mark, until 2015. Increased presence contributed to Labour holding a devolution referendum in 1979.|
2 / 71
|Poor performance compared to the two 1974 elections caused internal ructions during the 1980s.|
2 / 72
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|During this period the SNP did win the Govern By election with Jim Sillars|
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|A large rise in the SNP vote saw no increase in seats but did highlight that Scotland had voted against the Tories and despite 50 Labour MPs the feeble 50) these were largely useless when it came to fighting Scotland cause|
6 / 72
|Th year of Balir's victory and when there were no Tories in Scotland and Wales|
5 / 72
6 / 59
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56 / 59