Sunday, 6 November 2016

The Tories can't call an early election without manipulating the rules.

It is somewhat Ironic that we may not that speculation that Prime Minister Theresa May have her hands tied if she wanted to go for an early election as some have speculated.

Theresa May could almost quadruple her majority if she calls an early election, analysis by Britain’s leading pollster suggests today as influential Tories go public with calls for a snap vote.

The Prime Minister’s majority in the House of Commons would soar from 12 to 44 on current polling, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council.

Poll predictions and 2015 results D
The Telegraph goes on to say  that 
The findings add pressure on Mrs May to reverse her early promise not to go to the public to seek her own mandate before the next general election in 2020.
However the Tories and the Media seem to have forgotten one small of piece of  which came out of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats he Coalition deal one of the key yellow objectives which was  the fixed Term Parliament Act.

As William Taylor at Political Betting  points out 
Not wanting to get into a situation whereby the Conservatives could ditch the coalition well before the five years and go to the Country the LDs made this a key condition of putting David Cameron in Number 10.Basically there are just two ways under the legislation in which a general election can take place ahead of the standard 5 yearly schedule:
 Firstly if there’s a House of Commons vote of no confidence motion in the government that is not rescinded within 2 weeks; or if the Commons decide on a two-thirds majority to call an election.
Before the act the decision on a when a general election should be held was totally in the hands of the Prime Minister who would invite the monarch to invoke the Royal Prerogative and dissolve Parliament on a date of the PMs choosing.The current parliamentary arithmetic means that May would almost certainly need the backing of Labour to meet the two thirds threshold. Given the fact the the red team is trailing by so much in the polls it is hard to see enough LAB MPs voting for such a move even if Corbyn & co decided to do it.

 The alternative route would be the bizarre spectacle of May’s government initiating a vote of no confidence in it itself. Even then the PM could not necessarily count on the support of all CON MPs to back it. As we saw with yesterday’s latest CON MP resignation there’s disquiet amongst some of the blue team about the way May keeps things to herself particularly on BREXIT.In addition there is a group of CON MPs who are not enthusiastic about an early election. Many of those who won seats off the LDs in May 2015 are reported to be concerned about have to seek re-election early. An LD win in Richmond Park would heighten those concerns.
So what about the final option? Simply repeal the act? That would certainly set off general election speculation but it would enable May to keep her options open.
The then  German Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler), Gerhard Schröder, faced with a similar fixed term constitution  deliberately lost a confidence vote in the German lower parliamentary house, the Bundestag. in 2005 in order to to dissolve the Bundestag and to achieve earlier elections. It however led to the  eleven year reign o fAngela MerkelChristian Democrats (CDU).

If the Tories try to repeal the act or engineer a no-confidence vote  then she may find a cynical electorate reacting negatively.

Also it could be seen as a second referendum and with Brexit looming over her . May would have to explain  to the Great Unwashed exact what "Bexit means Berxit " means in detail.

Details of which some Leave voters may find its not what they thought they were voting for in the referendum.

We can only wonder how many even now are saying.

"F%*k what have I done." I just wanted to give the EU a kick not to to run away afterwards,

Something that I'm beginning to suspect she doesn't know herself.

Maybe the smuggest face on the opposition Benches is former LIb Dem leader Nick Clegg 

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