Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Are the Lib Dems being principled or cynical in calling for another Referendum.?

The Liberal  Democrats who have may have seen a revival in Local Government Elections have not seen it  replicated  in Parliamentary polls .
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLib DemSNPGreenOthersLead
18–20 NovICM/The Guardian2,03142%28%11%9%4%3%2%14%
15–18 NovOpinium2,00541%29%12%7%6%3%1%12%
14–15 NovYouGov/The Times1,71742%28%11%8%7%[a]4%1%14%
11–14 NovIpsos MORI1,01342%33%7%10%5%[a]3%1%9%
1–4 NovOpinium2,00140%32%13%6%6%4%8%
31 Oct–1 NovYouGov/The Times1,60841%27%11%10%6%[a]4%1%14%
28–30 OctICM/The Guardian2,04043%27%12%8%4%5%1%16%
24–25 OctYouGov/The Times1,65540%27%11%11%7%[a]3%1%13%
19–24 OctBMG1,54642%28%12%8%5%4%1%14%
20 OctBy-elections in Witney and Batley & Spen
19–20 OctYouGov/Election Data1,60842%26%12%8%6%[a]5%1%16%
14–17 OctIpsos MORI1,01647%29%6%7%6%[a]4%1%18%
11–12 OctYouGov/The Times1,66942%28%11%9%6%[a]3%0%14%
7–9 OctICM/The Guardian2,01743%26%11%8%4%6%2%17%
4 OctDiane James resigns as the leader of UKIP
28–29 SepYouGov/The Times1,65839%30%13%8%6%[a]3%0%9%
24 SepJeremy Corbyn is re-elected as leader of the Labour Party
21–23 SepICM/Sun on Sunday2,01541%26%14%8%5%4%2%15%
20–23 SepBMG2,02639%28%13%8%5%5%2%11%
19–21 SepYouGov/The Times3,28539%30%13%8%6%[a]3%1%9%
16 SepDiane James is elected the leader of UKIP
13–14 SepYouGov/The Times1,73238%31%13%7%6%4%7%
10–14 SepIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,00040%34%9%6%4%[a]5%1%6%
9–11 SepICM/The Guardian2,01341%27%14%8%5%4%2%14%
4–5 SepYouGov/The Times1,61640%29%13%7%7%[a]3%

So Lib Dems like former AM Peter Black seem to be clinging to a fantasy scenario  where they can garner votes on one issue that of Brexit 

In Peter's own words

The lay of the land is that the Tories and UKIP are committed to coming out of the European Union, the Liberal Democrats want a referendum on any deal and Labour, well Labour are all over the shop but seem to be leaning towards a soft Brexit. 

Just what impact these positions could have on the future electoral prospects of these parties has been revealed by a new poll.

The Independent reports that a YouGov survey has concluded that the Liberal Democrats could beat Labour at the next general election because of their pledge to hold a second EU referendum.
According to the survey if all the parties except the Liberal Democrats said they would press ahead with Brexit, my party would gain 22 per cent of the vote, while Labour would score just 19 per cent.
The Conservatives would come first with 39 per cent of the vote and UKIP would take 14 per cent.
They say that the results would produce a notional Tory majority in the Commons of over 100 seats, according to an electoral calculus projection of the results.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP have all already said they would accept the result of Brexit – while the Liberal Democrats have said they would offer a second referendum.
The stakes are very high but Tim Farron's principled position on our membership of the EU certainly has the potential to help a Liberal Democrats revival.

How principled it is to claim to be speaking for those who oppose Brexit in order to get 22% of the vote is open to question?

It seems however that the Liberal Democrats may be concerned hat their cunning plan to return to the pre-coalition days will be thwarted by Tony Blair returning to UK Poltics 

Peter writes.

Those who recall Margaret Thatcher's triumph return to the Tory Party Conference, when she announced that 'The Mummy has returned" in direct reference to a poster advertising an American action adventure fantasy film, may feel a twinge of Déjà vu at this weekend's news that Tony Blair is to re-enter politics.

The Independent says that the controversial former Prime Minister is engineering a comeback because he feels he can fill a political vacuum caused by Theresa May being a “light weight” and Jeremy Corbyn being a “nutter”. They add that Blair is sourcing premises near Westminster in order to relocate 130 staff to the UK’s political hub:
They add that a source allegedly told the Sunday Times: “He’s not impressed with Theresa May. He thinks she’s a total lightweight. He thinks Jeremy Corbyn’s a nutter and the Tories are screwing up Brexit. He thinks there’s a massive hole in British politics that he can fill.”
None of this is confirmed of course nor is their any indication as to what role Blair will seek to take up if the speculation proves to be true. 
The account in the Independent as to Blair's views on Brexit is interesting:
In October, Mr Blair called for a second Brexit referendum to be held when it becomes clearer what EU withdrawal would actually look like. He said: “If you want to retain that access to the single market there will be various obligations that are imposed upon you, in relation to the free movement of people, to legal obligations…you are going to have to work out at that point, ‘are the freedoms that we’re going to enjoy…really so substantial that we want to leave the European Union?’. 
“Another possibility is that you actually go for a much harder form of Brexit, you leave the single market altogether…then you’re going to be able to calculate, how much pain, how much difficulty, economic/social restructuring, is going to be necessary to make a success of that.”
Mr Blair added that people supporting Remain are: “the insurgents now. We have to build the capability to mobilise and to organise. We have to prise apart the alliance which gave us Brexit.”
In calling for a referendum on the terms of exit, Blair is much more in line with Liberal Democrats' thinking than that of Labour. Nevertheless, I cannot see Tim Farron picking up the phone and ringing him anytime soon.

It seems Peter is an avid independent reader, maybe because it gives him the news he wants to see
I do not want Brexit but accept that people voted for it and unless there was a clear change in the electorates opinion . I can not see how apart for Scotland and Northern Ireland we can oppose in total or call for another referendum.

I suspect that it would result in a bigger majority for leave as Remainers would  shift to leave angry that the views expressed in the first were ignored.

The only course for those of us who oppose Brexit is to see that it is as soft as possible , and to make sure it is not used to destroy Human rights or make the UK a satellite of Trumps America.

And what of Wales? It is imperative that Brexit does not lead to us to be poorer West Britons than we are now.

Our argument should be that Brexit , will mean we are that we a face a very hard future and that we should offer the Welsh Electorate either a future where  Wales rejoins the EU or at the very least will be able to form own own Trading agreements  on a Norway or Swiz model. 

Cynically calling for s a second referendum which you know you will lose , but hope will see an increase in votes and Westminster seats is not the way to fight Brexit.

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