Wednesday, 23 March 2016

Poll gives Plaid cheer and a fall in Ukip support.

The latest opinion poll has finally brought a little cheer to Plaid Cymru  and a fall in support for Ukip , which seems to be line with the recent falling out in that Party over candidate selection.
Welsh Assembly
Labour: 34% (no change)
Conservatives: 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (+2)
UKIP: 15% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
Others: 3% (+1)
Regional Vote
Labour: 31% (no change)
Conservatives: 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3)
UKIP: 14% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1)
Greens: 4% (+1)
Others: 3% (no change)

Once again we are indebted to Professor Roger Scully and Elections in Wales for the number crunching.
Combining the two sets of figures therefore produces the following overall projected outcome for the National Assembly:

Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats) -3
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituency seats + 7 list seats) +2
Conservatives: 11 seats (7 constituency seats + 4 list seats) -3
UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats) +7
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats -3
So if this was the result on  the day then Labour would find themselves as the easily still the largest Party but well short of an a overall majority  and after Leighton Andrews has  referred to his Plaid previous support  as acheap date’  in the Senedd. they may on fact be hoping he loses the Rhondda to Leanne Wood .

 Plaid would find itself as the main opposition party . A victory of sorts  but the surely would hope for more.
The Tories would claim a poor showing as a result of the recent infighting rather than  their polices 
Ukip would claim any  seat won as a result and 7 as a major victory . It will be interesting  to se how many remain with the party after the Brexit Referendum and maybe the Tories could overtake Plaid via a few defections.
We will likely see a loss of some prominent and able Lib Dems  AM and an even greater loss of influence , even loosing any Kudos they could win in concessions for backing Labour 


The figures for Westminster Elections   are more stable  he numbers from our latest survey are (with changes on the February Welsh Political Barometer poll again indicated in brackets):
Labour: 36% (-1)
Conservatives: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 16% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+2)
Others: 3% (+1)
The Poll also included  figures for the  the EU Referendum  The figures (with changes from February again indicated in brackets) are as follows:
Remain: 41% (+4)
Leave: 36% (-9)
Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote: 24% (+5)

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