Tuesday, 14 October 2014

We are not electing a UK President in 2015.

The row over over the TV debate offer to Nigel Farage grows and offers some interesting constitutional arguments


At The Moment it is proposed that

  • One head-to-head debate between the "two leaders who could become prime minister", Mr Cameron and Labour's Ed Miliband, on Sky and Channel 4 and chaired by Jeremy Paxman
For a start it would not be between the "two leaders who could become prime minister", it would be between the leaders who probably lead the  largest party in the new parliament.

Any Member of the UK parliament could be Prime Minister including members of the House of Lords. Neither John Major or Gordon Brown were leaders of their party at the start of the parliament in which they become Prime Minister.

In the event of another hung parliament it would not be impossible for an agreement for the leader of the smallest party to be PM or indeed in a "Rainbow Colition" the smalest Party . Jonathen Edwards for PM anybody?
  • Another, also to include the Liberal Democrat leader, to be hosted by David Dimbleby, on BBC TV, radio and online


    Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
    CON36.97%30731.22%242
    LAB29.66%25835.98%346
    LIB23.56%578.01%18
    UKIP3.17%015.02%0
    NAT2.26%93.37%25
    MIN4.37%196.40%19
The above Table by Electoral Calculus  is base on current voting intentions this means that even if you exclude Plaid MPs . The SNP wil be the third largest party. So potentially the LIibDems could be added a boost 

The YouGov poll after  the first TV debate in 2010 saw a huge surge in support for the Liberal Democrats.  Nick Clegg’s performance put the LibDems  in 2nd place ahead of Labour and just three points behind the Tories.  The figures published in The Sun showed Conservative 33%(-4), Labour 28%(-3), LibDem 30%(+8). 

It didn't last but it may have prevented the LIb Dems being squeezed . Though I supose it did lead the Tory press to turn on the LIbDems for a while.
  • Another debate, on ITV and chaired by Julie Etchingham, featuring the leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UK Independence Party
With Ukip on 15% well ahead of the LibDems  its hard to see an argument to exclude Farage  from the debate  However it is clear that they wil still struggle to win a seat and the Greens could still outnumber them in Parliament.


And of course where does this lead the Greens Plaid and the SNP (not forgetting Gorgeous George Galloway though I would like to).

There seems to be no clamour from the Northern Island Parties but we will see.

What we have at the moment is the Media deciding which Party could possibly win the next General Election and furthermore an attempt to turn it in to a "Presidential Campaign"  making it a choice between Cameron or Miliband  (some choice).

We still don't know who will win the next General Election or the current surge for the SNP or Ukip will hold up  But in the interest of Democracy here should be a rethink now.


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