Monday, 30 April 2012

Elections Blaeneau Gwent - Merthyr.

As we approach the Local Government elections I am going to look at the possible results per council.

*Please note because of some late changes in affiliations the actual allocation of numbers of councillors may differ by a few.seats.

*Blaenau Gwent  (42 councillors)

Current composition

Labour 16 Independent 24 Unaffiliated 2

Labour lost heavily here in 2008 largely due to Blaneau Gwent Peoples Voice and a general anti-Laboutr government consensus. But since then BGPV has dissolved and the two Liberal Democrats seem to have left the party. I expect Labour to comfortably take control of this council and gain about ten seats.

*Bridgend Council (54)

Current composition

Lab 27 Independents (various groups) 14 Con 6 LibDem 6

Labour went against the grain in 2008 and actually regained list ground lost to the Libdems and would expect to make further gains and there no real reason to expect them not do. Plaid may pick up a few seats on the further collapse of the LibDem vote but it looks like a Labour gain.

Current composition

Plaid Cymru 32 Labour 29 Independent 5 Independent Islwyn First 3 others 2

On paper Labour should take Caerphilly on a general swing but faced with an established Plaid group of councillors may not make the 6 or 7 seats they need to win control. Yes they look likely to achieve this but don't be surprised if Plaid hold on.

Current composition

LibDem 34 Con 17 Lab 14 Plaid 6 Independent 4

Labour would be hitting the headlines if they win here but it a long trek and although I expect them to be the largest party a hang council looks likely. The strange thing about the election here the big battle seem to be between Plaid and Labour . The former took six seats of the latter in the last election and threatened the strong hold of Ely. Labiur in theory  should be confident of regaining these lost seats but may fail and have to be content in gaining in LibDem and Independent  wards.

Current composition

Independents 30 Plaid 29 Lab 11 LLibDem 1Peoples First 2 Unaffiliated 1

Plaid gained heavily from Labour who would be expected to get some back this time. But they have been in coalition with the controversial Independent led council and may find it hard goining . Expect Plaid to compensate for any losses to Labour largely in Llanelli  by taking sets from the Independents elsewhere . They need a net gain of 9 to win overall control. They may well do it but it a tough task.

*Ceredigion (42)

Current composition

Plaid 20 Independents 11  LibDem 9 Lab 1 Unaffiliated 1.

Plaid have steadily risen to be the largest pary on this council t only to be denied power though a Independent -LibDem coalition . They need a overall gain of 2 seats for control. A large number of conservatives  candidates my influence the result even if they don't win any seats.

*Conwy (59)

Current composition

Con 20 Independents 15 Plaid 14 Labour 7 LibDem  5

The Conservatives  gained 8 seats in 2008 on top of 7 in 2004 and are now the largest party . But the council is led a Plaid led Coalition . Will Westminster politics affect the Tories  and see a Labour comeback?  Will the failure of the council to win lottery money for the refurbishment of Conwy Pier have any affect.? There will probably be no big winner here. The big question which one of the groups will provide the Council Leader?

Current composition

Con 18 independent 11 Plaid 8 Lab 5 Others 5

Don't expect major changes . Like Conwy the conservatives make big wins in 2004 and 2008 but expect this to reversed and the Independents to be the largest group.

Current composition

Independent 24 Lab 21  LibDem 13  Con 9 Plaid 1.

Another must win for Labour a 10 seat target is not impossible and I expect them to be that target on the night.

Current composition

Plaid 39 Independents 16 Liais Gwynedd 12 Libdem 4 Lab 4

The 2008 election was spoilt for Plaid as they lost overall control Of Gwynedd largely due to the intervention  Llais Gwynedd. Since then through defections and By-elections Plaid have regained control . I don't think LG will have the influence this time nd for Plaid to stay in control possibly with an increase in their numbers.

Current composition

Independents 13 Lab 10  LibDem 4 UKIP  2 unaffiliated 1

Labour are pushing hard here but Merthyr has develped a liking for Independents . So labour will be hoping to take the 4 LibDem seats from a party which ran them close in the last General Election. If labour gain a overall majority then it will probably be slim.

I hope to complete Monmouthshire - Wrexham tomorrow,

1 comment:

  1. I seem to have deleted a comment by accident. It claimed that Plaid would lose all its seats in Cardiff. If you would resubmit it I promise to publish it sorry.