Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Elections Monmouthshire - Wrexham

*Please note because of some late changes in affiliations the actual allocation of numbers of councillors may differ by a few.seats

*Monmouthshire (43)
Current composition

Con 26 Lab 7 LibDem 4 Independent 5 Plaid 1.

The Conservatives would have to have a very bad night to lose control of this council and with an unlikely LibDem challenge in some wards it would be a very good night for Labour if they were to reduce the Tories to below the 22 needed for overall control.

*Neath Port Talbot (64)

Current composition

Lab 39 Plaid 11 Independents 6 LibDem 3 Social Democrat 3 NPT Independents 2

One of two councils in Wales which Labour has overall control and Little change expected here with the opposition coming from Plaid in the North and others in the South . Plaid may pick up a few seats but I expect Labour to strengthen their grip.

*Pembrokeshire (60)

Current composition

Independents 39 Con 5 Lab 5 Plaid 5 Unaffiliated 6.

Despite a major Conservative push it is unlikely anyone will make spectacular gains. Local difficulties may see some change in personnel but the Independents should remain in control.

*Newport .(50)

Lab21 Con 18 LibDem 9 Independent 2

Again Labour must be aiming to gain control of this council needing a net gain of 5 seats which should be easily obtaiable on current opinion polls. Fail here and it would be a bad night for Labour.

*Powys (73)

Current composition

Powys Independent Alliance 31  The Shires Independent Group 13 LibDems 13 Con 10 Lab 5 Plaid 1.

No change here . The conservatives won 10 seats last time and should aim to establish themselves in this county but may find that "National" politics may work against them. But it will be largely local issues and personalities at play here.

Current composition

Lab 46 Plaid 18 Independents 8 Lobdem 3 Con 1.

The main battle here is between Labour and Plaid  who may make some gains on top of relevations about the number of jobs the Labour leader has. But expect Labour to remain fuly in charge after May 3rd.

Current composition

Lab 27 LibDem 24 Independents 7 Indpendents Swansea 6 Con 4 Communities of Swansea 3 Plaid 1

Oh boy what a council  the current ruling group(Libdem Independent Plaid) look like a disaster the Conservatives are at war with each other and Labour still don't seem to have regained the trust of the Public.  On paper Labour should win the seats necessary to win control of their former fiefdom. But don't bet on it 

Lab 18 Independent 14 Con Peoples Voice 3 Plaid Cymru 2 Libdem 2

As with Blaenau Gwent the demise of Peoples Voice will probably mean that Labour  win that this council needing to win only 5 seats.

LibDem 11 Lab 13  Democratic Independents 7 Wrexham Independents 8 Conservatives  5  Independent  4 Plaid 3.

A council that Labour would seek to win from this mismatch  of groupings.. But as in Merthyr  Wrexham has developed an liking to diversity . It may be only the Liberal Democrats who are truly vulnerable here.

Isles of Anglesey

No Elections.

One aspect that may affect the election is the weather. The current heavy rain must have put a literal dampener on campaigning which should help incumbent councillors if it continues intoThursday . I n the past  the main losers would provably  Labour who may have a problem getting those waivering towards them out.. However the increase in the use of Postal votes means that these can be vital on a day when poor weather puts those who vote at polling stations off,

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