Wednesday, 2 May 2012

Labour set to win big tomorrow.

The Polls are looking good for Labour as we approach tomorrow's Local Government election . There's an excellent  analysis on Red Dragon White Bull. Although I don't think the poll truly reflects voting intentions in the local elections they probably reflect the general position of the parties in Westminster and Assembly intentions and these may have had some influence on those polled when asked about their intentions for their local council.

But it does look like it will be a goodnight for Labour ans Good night  for the Liberal Democrat's in particular..

Westminster politics always have a influence on local contests and whilst  there have been complaints from other Parties over their "Send Cameron and Clegg" message . Labour suffered heavily in 2008 and 2004 from the same message being sent to their then Government and lost heavily. So it no wonder they can expect to recover this Time. The only question is by how much.

The polls suggest that they will once again exert their political government  over Welsh councils and we can only hope that this does not result in the arrogance and contempt for the electorate  that they have exerted in the past.

I expect Labour to win overall control of Caerphilly, Bridgend,Blaenau Gwent , Torfaen,Newport,Flinttshire and Swansea  to go alongside Neat Port Talbot and Rhondda Cynon Taf and to come just short in Merthyr, Wrexham  and Cardiff. which will result in intense negotiations.

So its prediction time

The only other parties to control  a council will be the Tories (Monmouth) and Plaid (Gwynedd and possibly Cereredigion).

In other councils

Carmarthen may see Plaid as the largest Party but will probably be denied power by a Independent Labour coalition.

Wrexham will see Labour as the largest Party but may be denied leadership pf the council


Conwy will remain a council with no overall control though it may be Tory-Independent this time.

Labour may be the Largest Party on the Vale of Glamorgan and may seek coalition with Plaid.

Powys Denbighshire and Pembrokeshire will be largely unchanged . Though there may actual be some Tory gains from Independents..

The final result may be that in Total number of Councillors  will be difficult to predict and I've chickened out of making a exact prediction so have gone for a range but I believe they will be between.

                   2008         2012

Lab             353           430 -460
Con            172           150-190
Plaid           206           180-220
LibDem      153            70 -  90
Others        380           320 - 340


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