Therer s a Huge hill to climb for whoever becomes leader of the Liberal Candidates next month the Liberal Democrats in August from the dizzily heights when they won 62 seats inthe 2005 General Election , to the the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%..
But since then it has been downhill, they actually ended up losing 5 seats in 2010 and then leader Nick Clegg made what proved a disastrous decision to enter into coalition with David Cameron's Consevatives which saw them lose 49 seats leaving them with with just five., recovery has been slow and they faced the humiliation of losing their then leader's seat in the 2019 General Election.leaving them wit just 12 seats.
The Two candidates are Ed Davey and Layla Moran who represents Kingston and Surbiton and respectively
Davey won his seat back in a seat n 2017 though still in a marginal seat.
Elections in the 2010s
|Liberal Democrats||Ed Davey||31,103||51.1||6.4|
|Brexit Party||Scott Holman||788||1.3||N/A|
|Monster Raving Loony||Chinners Chinnery||193||0.3||0.0|
|Liberal Democrats hold||Swing||5.3|
|Liberal Democrats||Ed Davey||27,810||44.7||+10.3|
|Monster Raving Loony||Chinners||168||0.3||+0.3|
|Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative||Swing||+5.7|
|Liberal Democrats||Ed Davey||20,415||34.5||-15.3|
|Christian Peoples Alliance||Daniel Gill||198||0.3||-0.1|
|Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats||Swing||+9.0|
Davey identifies as a liberal politically, telling magazine Total Politics: “I personally think liberalism is the strongest political philosophy in the modern world. Socialism has failed. I think even social democracy, the watered down version which Labour sort of understand depending on which day of the week it is, is not very convincing, and I don’t really understand where the Conservatives are coming from because they have so many philosophies within one party. There’s no philosophy of the modern Conservative Party.”. He has said that he believes “in the free market and in competition”, and during a parliamentary public bill committee debate in November 2010 argued in defence of privatisation, deregulation, and the private sector against Labour MP Gregg McClymont.
Davey also describes himself as a "strong free-trader", rejecting reciprocity in trade tariffs as "the classic protectionist argument". He believes Britain should be open to foreign investment, except for investment tainted by “smells that you have from Putin." He dismisses worries over foreign ownership and investment in the British economy such as that of Chinese and French companies' involvement in the British energy market. Davey describes himself as "an economist by trade
Moran contested Oxford West and Abingdon at the 2015 general election, coming second. She was selected for the seat again at the 2017 general election, when she gained the seat from the health minister Nicola Blackwood with 26,256 votes (43.7%) and a majority of 816. Moran became the first UK Member of Parliament of Palestinian descent and the first female Liberal Democrat MP from an ethnic minority background. In June 2017, Moran was named as the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for education, science and young people in the House of Commons. That month she used her maiden speech to call for fair funding in schools, and in July 2017 she spoke out against the closure of all of the Sure Start children's centres in Oxfordshire, which took place earlier in the year. Also in July 2017, Moran was jeered at for accusing the Conservatives of underfunding a new scheme to provide 30 hours of free childcare for the children of working parents] Later that year she was appointed a member of the Public Accounts Committee, responsible for overseeing government expenditures]
Her seat is also marginal
|Liberal Democrats||Layla Moran||31,340||53.3||9.5|
|Brexit Party||Allison Wild||829||1.4|
|Liberal Democrats hold||Swing||6.9|
|Liberal Democrats||Layla Moran||26,256||43.7||14.8|
|Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative||Swing||9.1|
|Liberal Democrats||Layla Moran||16,571||28.9||13.1|
|National Health Action||Helen Salisbury||723||1.3|
|Socialist (GB)||Mike Foster||66||0.1|
|Liberal Democrats||Evan Harris||23,730||42.0||4.1|
|Animal Protection||Keith Mann||143||0.3|
|Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats||Swing||6.9|
Elections in the 2000s
|Liberal Democrats||Evan Harris||24,336||46.3||−1.5|
|Liberal Democrats hold||Swing||−1.6|
Ten years ago both would comfortably entered a General Election enjoying the concentrated efforts of the Parties and the Little Bar Graphs and "Its a Two Horse race " we so love in thier electoral communications.
On 24 June, the first day of nominations, both Davey and Moran received sufficient nominations to progress to the ballot.
Moran announced that she would stand as a candidate on 8 March, saying that the party needed a "positive vision", with more emphasis on the policy areas of education, the environment and political culture. Her vision also outlines that "A Universal Basic Income is necessary to support those who fall on hard times", as well as investment in education, health, social care and public services.[ She also wants to prioritise wellbeing and mental health alongside economic growth. She had previously criticised the party's approach to the 2019 general election, saying that the party's policy of preventing Brexit meant that voters didn't trust the party.
In June, acting leader Davey launched his bid to become leader saying that his "experience as a carer can help rebuild Britain after coronavirus". He proposed the establishment of a basic income to support carers.[
One thing to remember that in the Blair landslide of 1997 the Liberal Democrats gained 26 seats so where not hampered by the centrists ( Blue-Tory) Tony Blair, but actually rode the same tide of those tired of a Tory Government.
Below are the top target for the Lib Dems for the next General Election.
If they were to repeat their riding on the coattails of Blair landslide all (except Cerdigion) would be within their grasp.
However at the moment the only "Lib Dem Two Horse Race " seems to be between Davey and Moran,
|3.||Sheffield Hallam||Yorkshire and the Humber||712||0.63%|
|4.||Carshalton and Wallington||London||629||0.64%|
|8.||Cambridgeshire South||East of England||2,904||2.17%|
|9.||Esher and Walton||South East||2,743||2.17%|
|13.||St Ives||South West||4,280||4.16%|
|14.||Cities of London and Westminster||London||3,953||4.63%|
|15.||Hazel Grove||North West||4,423||5.00%|
|16.||Hitchin and Harpenden||East of England||6,895||5.86%|
|17.||Finchley and Golders Green||London||6,562||5.95%|
|19.||Surrey South West||South East||8,817||7.31%|
|21.||Sutton and Cheam||London||8,351||8.27%|
|22.||Harrogate and Knaresborough||Yorkshire and the Humber||9,675||8.50%|
|23.||Brecon and Radnorshire||Wales||7,131||8.63%|
|24.||Cambridgeshire South East||East of England||11,490||8.92%|
|25.||Cambridge||East of England||9,639||8.97%|
|27.||Taunton Deane||South West||11,700||9.18%|
|31.||Mole Valley||South East||12,041||10.54|