Sunday, 14 October 2012

Pro- Independence Parties likely to win in Euskadi

With a week to go for Elections for the Basque Parliament a on 21 October 2012, (a year earlier than required)

The Polls have been remarkably steady but the big winners  lok likely to be s EHB left-wing, Basque nationalist and coalition .

The Coalition which has existed under numerous names over the years Largely consists of : Eusko Alkartasuna, ( Who are members of the European Free Alliance along side Plaid) Aralar, Alternatiba, Sortu, and independents of ezker abertzalea (groups and independent individuals from the Basque leftist-nationalist milieu, most of whom had been members of Herri Batasuna)

The Big losers lok like the Spanish Federal Parties  PSE (Socialist) amd PP ( Consevitive)

The PSE had been making steady gains in previous elections and was seemingly establishing themselves as the second largest party in the Autonomous  Basque region and some commentators were claiming that we were seeing a end to moves to an Independent Basque Nation as the EAJ accommodated themselves in the Spanish Antonymous system.

However it seems far more likely many supporters who no longer see EAJ has pushing for full independence abstained as some of the Parties they would have voted for were banned for alleged links to ETA

But this time there it seems likely that there can be no argument that the Basque country wil make a big step in voting for pro independence parties Next Sunday and with polls in Catalonia also  seeing an increase in support for independence parties  . It may be Alex Salmond may be in a race to be the next leader of a newly independent nation.

How far are we in Wales prepared to be behind.

Recent Polls


38 seats needed for a majority
Date(s) conductedPolling instituteEAJPSE–EEPPEHBIUUPyDOthers / undecidedMargin
11 OctoberAztiker35.2
28
14.6
12
10.4
8
28.3
24
3.3
2
2.2
1
6.0
0
6.9
10 OctoberAztiker34.4
28
15.3
12
10.8
9
28.2
24
3.2
1
2.1
1
6.0
0
6.2
8–10 OctoberSigma Dos33.3
24–26
20.2
16–18
14.7
12
24.5
20
2.8
1
2.1
0
2.4
0
8.8
9 OctoberAztiker34.6
27
15.3
13
11.2
10
27.9
23
3.1
1
2.0
1
5.9
0
6.7
8 OctoberAztiker32.7
27
15.6
13
11.5
9
27.2
23
3.8
2
2.6
1
6.6
0
5.5
6 OctoberAztiker32.2
26
16.8
13
11.8
10
27.4
24
3.0
1
2.1
1
6.7
0
4.8
5 OctoberAztiker33.4
26
14.9
13
12.4
11
27.2
23
3.4
2
2.0
0
6.7
0
6.2
4 OctoberAztiker35.8
26
15.8
14
13.8
11
27.4
22
3.6
1
1.7
1
1.9
0
8.4
25 September–4 OctoberNC Report
24–25

14

10–12

21–23

3

1

0
2–3 OctoberGizaker33.9
24–25
19.8
16–17
14.2
11–13
27.1
21–22
1.9
0
1.3
0
1.8
0
6.8
22 September–2 OctoberAztiker35.1
26
16.3
14
14.1
11
26.8
22
3.8
2
1.7
0
2.2
0
8.3
30 SeptemberNC Report
23–25

14–15

11–13

22–24

0–1

0

0
10–25 SeptemberCIS36.2
27
17.2
14
10.7
9–10
25.1
21–22
4.2
3
2.0
0
4.6
0
11.1
23 SeptemberNC Report
23–25

14–15

11–13

21–24

1–2

0

0
16 SeptemberNC Report
23–26

14–16

11–13

21–22

1

1

0
21–25 AugustNC Report31.2
22–25
19.0
14–16
14.1
11–13
26.5
21–22
3.5
1
3.1
1
2.6
0
4.7
22–24 AugustSigma Dos33.7
24–25
21.4
17
12.8
12
27.3
21–22
2.3
0
1.1
0
1.4
0
6.4
24 JuneIkerfel34.6
24–26
18.8
14–17
12.1
11–12
25.8
19–21
4.7
2
1.2
0
2.8
0
8.8
21–23 JuneNC Report30.6
22–24
19.5
15–16
16.7
14
25.1
21–22
3.8
1–2
2.3
0
2.0
0
5.5
8–24 MayEuskobarómetro32.1
23–24
20.0
17
14.0
12–13
24.7
22
3.0
0
1.8
0
4.4
0
7.4
7–12 MayNC Report29.8
22–23
19.1
15
16.5
14
27.2[1]
22–23
3.5
1–2

0

0
2.6
23 AprilGara29.0
22
15.0
12
16.0
15
28.0[1]
24
5.0
2

0

0
1.0
2012
25 November–19 DecemberEuskobarómetro30.7
22–23
18.3
16
15.4
14
24.7[1]
19–22
3.1
0–3
1.8
0
6.0
0
6.0
over EHB
27–29 JanuaryGizaker36.7
29–30
24.4
20–21
12.4
11–12
18.2[2]
12–14

0
1.5
1

0
12.3
2011
2010
1 March 2009Election Results38.6
30
30.7
25
14.1
13
9.7[3]
5
3.5
1
2.1
1
1.3
0
7.9
over PSE

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