Saturday, 27 October 2012

Boundary Commission revise doomed proposal.

The Boundary Commission for Wales has published revised proposals for reducing the number of Westminster seats from 40 to 30 and you can see it in detaill .here . Though we could do with them giving  a more basic summary ,

The revised proposals do end some of the most ridiculous names for the proposed constituencies  such as the Moth Wales coast  and to link Caerphilly with parts of Cardiff North though the new
Cardiff North and South Gwent a bit of a mouthful.

Mind you I always have the suspicion the commission deliberately draw up impracticable proposals in order to make the final decision more palatable.

However it could well be that the work (and the expenditure) may be in vain.


Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has said the Liberal Democrats will vote against the changes in retaliation for Tory MPs scuppering proposals to introduce a largely elected House of Lords.
Labour has opposed plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 30
So Cameron has turned to the smaller Parties . Though I can't se him paying the price sought by Plaid's Jonathan Edwards.who claimed...
  Plaid was open to supporting changes if there was a deal that would create “a de facto federal state”.
He said he would personally want to see new fiscal powers, the creation of a Welsh legal jurisdiction and responsibility for energy, criminal justice and broadcasting as part of a new Government of Wales Bill.
The deal, he added, would have to go well beyond the work of the Silk Commission launched by the Wales Office to propose changes to the present devolution settlement.
He added
 We are obviously interested. Our position has been quite principled; we have always said that we’re not wedded to the idea of 40 Welsh MPs.
“But if you reduce the number of Welsh MPs then you have to transfer the powers correspondingly. If you’re going to take away a quarter of Welsh MPs then in our view that would warrant a significant transfer of powers.
“So we’re open to offers.”
Mr Edwards acknowledged that the reduction in MPs from 650 to 600 would make it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority in England, adding this was a reason why “we want as many powers as possible devolved so that the people of Wales are protected from Tory policies coming from [Westminster].”
Stressing the need for the transfer of powers to be explicitly laid out in new legislation, he said: “I think what it does essentially is just knock Silk out of the equation. To do the deal you’d have to have a Government of Wales Bill before we vote on the seats.
“The Tories haven’t got a good record of doing deals – if you compare the [2007 Labour-Plaid] One Wales agreement and the coalition agreement, basically the Lib Dems have been fleeced on everything.
“So we wouldn’t vote through this reduction in seats unless we knew we had those transfers already down.”
Westerrn Mail October 23rd

Nice try but not much hope. 

So the maths don't look god for Cameron The SNP probably don't care . don't vote  Sinn Féin  don't vote and the other NI parties will not be enough.

And this is not even counting those Tories who may be seeing their own seats disappearing or those who may (Glyn Davies in Montgomery) Baulk at the abolition of a very old constituency.

So the Boundary Commission may have to file this away for another Parliament By then of course the demographics may have changed and there may already be 59 fewer MPs from Scotland.

Is Cameron going to waste valuable Parliamentary time on a doomed bill?


3 comments:

  1. Oh I don't know, with the current polling a Tory majority at the next UK election is looking less likely, and re-drawing the boundries would certainly help them. They may be prepared to pay the price.

    That being said Plaid's price isn't exactly high is it? They are only asking that Wales be given the same settlement that Scotland in 1999. The Tories have accepted it in the case of Scotland, why wouldn't they accept the aame for Wales especially it it helps them win a majority in UK/England?

    "And this is not even counting those Tories who may be seeing their own seats disappearing or those who may (Glyn Davies in Montgomery) Baulk at the abolition of a very old constituency."

    Ah so Glyn davies is only concerned about abolishing a very old constituency, and isn't just another MP worried about losing his own seat ;)

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  2. The boundary changes cannot happen quick enough for my liking. Combined with the double whammy of Scottish freedom we will be left with Tory rule forever.

    Unless we grow some balls and realise that Labour are the real enemy.

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  3. Not going to happen. They would need *everyone*.

    "That being said Plaid's price isn't exactly high is it? They are only asking that Wales be given the same settlement that Scotland in 1999. The Tories have accepted it in the case of Scotland, why wouldn't they accept the aame for Wales especially it it helps them win a majority in UK/England?"

    It's a huge price! It means wiping out the Silk Commission which, despite being a repitition of Holtham, is bizarrely important to the tories. It's the same settlement as Scotland and a commensurate reduction in seats. It's fair and principled. I think there's a difference between the Tories accepting it in Scotland, because of the SNP threat, and accepting it in Wales. The fact they accepted it (reluctantly) in Scotland means they are less likely to accept it in Wales. It's much easier for the unionist parties to string out further devolution to Wales and delay it, so that any small gains can be emphasised and spun for political advantage (see last week's funding "deal").

    So there won't actually be a deal because the stakes are so high, but nice try from Jonathan.

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