Monday, 30 August 2010

What’s the Opposite of a Pyrrhic Victory and was 2010 one for Plaid?

Not even the most optimistic Plaid supporter would claim that the result of 2010 General Election ,was anything but a bitter disappointment for the Party.

The failure to win any of the hoped for seats of Ynys Mon, Ceredigion Aberconwy or even Llanelli , meant that the Party seemed to have hit a brick wall when it comes to increasing thier number to Westminster.

I am not sure what the opposite of a Pyrrhic Victory is but it is possible that Plaid may this time next year be thinking that they had in fact been lucky to not have made thier hoped for gains.

I have a precedent for this argument.

In 1997 the only seat that Plaid could really hope to gain was Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. In a year when Tony Blair's New Labour won the General Election by landslide  and ended years of Toy government. The loss of the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, seat would have probably resulted great resentment towards Plaid by Labour members in Wales.

17,907 voted for Labour in the seat in 1997. Now if we take into account the Yes majority in the Assembly referendum  for Wales as a whole was 6721 we can see that the majority of 22,996 in Carmarthen was vital and although it was dramatic the fact that it was last to declare is irrelevant in this case.

Would all of those Labour voters who voted Yes had done so if they had lost the seat in this County. It is possible they would not have and this resentment may also have spilled over to large past of Wales.

So I am proposing that it is highly possible that Plaids failure to advance in the election of 1997 resulted in a Yes vote a few months later.

Now move forward to the 2010 election if Plaid had one just two Labour seats in Wales (Ynys Mon and Llanelli) then this would certainly put a strain on Plaid -Labour relations and possibly damaged the One Wales Agenda. Disunity in the Welsh Assembly government resulting in a No vote in 2011.

If there was a No vote then Plaid would in no doubt suffer in the  later May Assembly Elections.
However Plaid with a Yes vote behind could  easily make seat gains, and place themselves in a strong position not only for the One Wales Agenda to continue but to argue for a greater say in it.

And that’s my hypothesis I am sure some may reject it outright but  I think it should be considered .

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