Plaid overegg. Beeb and Kim Howells lay one.

I'm afraid some Nationalist commentators may have gone a little bit overboard with one pf the results of Welsh Barometer polls.

As Professor Roger Scully writes 

Finally, we asked a question which we haven’t run before, and which followed directly on from the EU Referendum:

“And please imagine a scenario where the rest of the UK left the European Union but Wales could remain a member of the European Union if it became an independent country. If a referendum was then held in Wales about becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?”

The results to this question were:

Yes: 28%

No: 53%

Would Not Vote/Don’t Know: 20%

 What  got some in a frenzy was Professor Scully saying

But note that opposition to independence for Wales still leads by almost two to one: if we take out non-committed voters, then things balance out at 65% – 35% against independence. 

Which led Plaid to come up with the much copied Tweet

Which are figures that  would male a Lib Dem blush

My cynicism however does mot hide the fact that we could be seeing a game changer after the Brexit vote and Plaid may well be displaying similar figures  with a more honest pedigree in the near future.

It is interesting  that the poll option did not include  First Minister Carwyn  Jones  suggestion there could be a federal UK after the Brexit vote.

This did not prevent  the BBC digging up 

When it was put to Mr Howells that a federal Britain was being advocated by Mr Jones, he said: 

"I think he's out of touch actually, with the way that most people in Wales think.
"He and Leanne Wood the leader of Plaid Cymru, they held an incredibly smug press conference just prior to the referendum where they said, of course Wales will vote to Remain, if England votes to Leave, we'll have to go to Brussels to negotiate some kind of a pro-EU position for Wales.
"They couldn't be more wrong. They were totally wrong."
"there are no fundamental differences between the Wales ways works and the way England works in so many respects".
"The real shock in this is that realisation," he said, "because the whole justification of the Welsh assembly was we would be closer in touch, through our politicians, with the way people are thinking in Wales, and yet they have got it fundamentally wrong."
Mr Howells added: "The notion that somehow Wales is kind of isolated and cast off from the rest of Britain is complete nonsense.
"It's just nationalist claptrap.

"I'm very very sorry to hear people in the Labour party echoing that kind of claptrap. They ought to know better, actually."

Howells whose career in Westminster was hardly  one of startling success in the Blair Government

Minister of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
Minister of State for Higher Education
Minister of State for Transport
Under-Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport

despite being a ultra Blair loyalist couldn't  find the political pulse of the welsh electorate even if he was explicitly shown it.

It says something of the BBC that when there are indications of a sea change in Welsh politics they dig up a dinosaur like Kim Howells to repeat the sort of rubbish coming from the Labour party before the establishment of the Welsh Assembly something i believe he would vote to abolish , even if it was to place us under the cruel wind of Thatcherism part 2.

Plaid see a rise in support amongst the political turmoil.

With the turmoil amongst the Political Parties it seems that Labour may be the biggest losers in Wa;es according tj the latest opinion poll. Whilst Plaid seem to be experience a big wing its way.

As usual I recommend you read Professor Roger Scully  on elections in Wales for his in depth amalysis   These are among the key findings from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since last month’s EU referendum. 

First, Westminster. Woth a early Gemeral election on the cards.

 Here are the figures from our new poll (with changes from the last Barometer poll, conducted at the beginning of June, indicated in brackets):

Labour 34% (-5)
Conservative 23% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 16% (+2)
UKIP 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
Others 3% (+1)

Taking the  we take the changes to party support since the May 2015 general election implied by this poll  Proffesor Scully  applies them uniformly across Wales and get the following projected result (with all seats won by a party at last year’s general election remaining in their hands unless stated otherwise):

Party		Seats				Votes
		Total	Gained	Lost	Net	Total	%	Change (%)
	Labour1	25	1	2	-1	552,473	36.9	+0.6
	Conservative	11	3	0	+3	407,813	27.2	+1.1
	UKIP	0	0	0	0	204,330	13.6	+11.2
	Plaid Cymru	3	0	0	0	181,704	12.1	+0.8
	Liberal Democrats	1	0	2	-2	97,783	6.5	-13.6
	Green	0	0	0	0	38,344	2.6	+2.1
	Socialist Labour Party	0	0	0	0	3,481	0.2	+0.2
	TUSC	0	0	0	0	1,780	0.1	+0.1
	Others	0	0	0	0	10,355	0.7	-0.5
Total		40				1,498,063

despite a 4/% increase in their projected vote Plaid do not see a similar surge in their seats Whilst Ukip  also on 16% in the pol will still be without a seat and Labour who see a fall in support gain one seat.

Labour: 26 seats (gaining Gower and Vale of Clwyd, but losing Ynys Môn)
Conservative: 9 seats (losing Gower and Vale of Clwyd)
Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)

For the Assembly there is a simalar pattern

 Fir the constituency there is little swing  on the constituency vote which may suggest that Plaid Westminster vote gai is among those who back them in the Assembly.

Labour 32% (-2)

Plaid Cymru 23% (no change)
Conservative 19% (+1)
UKIP 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (no change)
Others 3% (no change)

the findings for the Assembly regional vote show a broadly similar picture: and that Plaid may have maximised it vote for now,

Labour 29% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 24% (+3)
Conservative 18% (no change)
UKIP 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (no change)
Others 8% (+10)

The 2016 reults was 

elsh Assembly election, 2016

Parties		Additional member system										Total seats
		Constituency					Region
		Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−	Seats	+/−	Total	+/−	%
	Labour	353,866	34.7	-7.6	27	-1	319,196	31.5	-5.4	2	0	29	-1	48.3
	Plaid Cymru	209,376	20.5	+1.3	6	+1	211,548	20.8	+3.0	6	0	12	+1	20.0
	Conservative	215,597	21.1	-3.9	6	0	190,846	18.8	-3.7	5	-3	11	-3	18.3
	UKIP	127,038	12.5	+12.5	0	0	132,138	13.0	+8.5	7	+7	7	+7	11.7
	Liberal Democrats	78,165	7.7	-2.9	1	0	65,504	6.5	-1.6	0	-4	1	-4	1.7
	Green	25,202	2.5	+2.3	0	0	30,211	3.0	-0.5	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Independent	7,032	0.7	-0.6	0	0	1,577	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party						44,286	4.4	+4.4	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Monster Raving Loony						5,743	0.6	+0.4	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts						2,040	0.2	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Welsh Communist Party						2,452	0.2	+0.0	0	0	0	0	0.0
	Others	3,107	0.3	-1.1	0	0	9,202	0.9	-5.0	0	0	0	0	0.0

According yo Professor Scully it would mean the make up of the Assembly would  read

Labour 26 seats (24 constituency, 2 regional) -3

Plaid Cymru 15 seats (10 constituency, 5 regional)+3
Conservative 10 seats (5 constituency, 5 regional)-1
UKIP 8 seats (8 regional)+1
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)no change

Of course we are living in turbulent times and we can expect some volatile Timed . bit Plaid seem to be benefiting from a having  whether this will change we can only wonder . It is unlikely that the Conservatives will elect a leader from the Welsh constituency but it does appear that Pontypridd Labour MP Owen Smith is waiting for someone to wield the knife into Jeremy Corbyn before presenting himself as a compromise candidate.self .

How much effect on a Plaid vote this would mean we can only wonder.

Lord Pillock still thinks he has influence,

He's passed from rising hope to elder statesman without any intervening period whatsoever. 

Michael Foot on On David Steel, 1979

You cannot even add the last part to Baron Kinnock of  Beddwelty who managed to lose Two elections to the Tories even when it was led by the hapless John Major.

Now these days he turns up like  Football Pundit who never won a single Trophy in his playing days criticising the current Team he was once captain of.

The former Labour leader turned up Andrew Marr's show on said party rules mean Mr Corbyn cannot continue in the party’s top job and would need to secure backing from more than 50 MPs if he wanted to fight a leadership challenge.

He told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show: 

“Members across the country, including newly-joined people, have got deep residual doubts about the possibility of him leading the party to election victory and that means he should reconsider his position on those grounds.”

The peer said the party’s constitution means the leader must have a substantial amount of backing” from Labour MPs.

“That means that unless the leader can have that substantial support in Parliament then there should be a contest or the leader should consider his position and do his duty to the party and resign.”

 Lord Kinnock urged Mr Corbyn’s supporters to think about whether they wanted to “turn up at the funerals of communities and industries” caused by decades more of Conservative rule.

This from the Man who made his name in UK politics  opposing  Welsh Devolution  in 1979 leaving Wales at the mercy of Thatcher ism for for thirteen lon years 

Devolutionary reform will not provide a factory, a machine or jobs, build a school, train a doctor or put a pound on pensions.
South Wales Echo (November 1, 1975).

This  from the man who betrayed the Miners when they struck to protect their jobs .

This from the man ho now sits in the unelected Hoise of Lords

The House of Lords must go - not be reformed, not be replaced, not be reborn in some nominated life-after-death patronage paradise, just closed down, abolished, finished.

Tribune (November 19, 1976).

And can we ever forget his claim the children on Ynys Mon were soiling themselves  by being forced to ask to go the lavatory in Welsh,

But he sirs in the TV stupid  with a stupid grin on his face still pretending to be a man of the people where he is really a failed politician whose own Vaulting ambition  led him to betray his own nation of Wales  and leave his people to the cruel wind of Tatcherism and even Today is prepared to destroy his own Party than see it led by a decent socialist like Jeremy Corbyn,

Welsh Greens really need a separate identity,

I have often Blogged on the Green Party here in Wales stating how I personally would like them to form a more distinct Welsh identity so apart from supporting much of the Green Agenda I could sometimes have alternative to Plaid when I feel they have broken promises.


But they really need to sort themselves out .

In a Open letter to: Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron, Leanne Wood on behalf of Green Party of England and Wales,
They put forward a case for a Progressive Alliance


It reads

In a spirit of openness and transparency, we are writing to you as Leaders of parties which oppose Brexit, to invite you to a cross-party meeting to explore how we best rise to the challenge posed by last week’s vote to Leave the EU.
Britain is in crisis and people are scared about the future. Never have we had a greater need for calm leadership to be shown by politicians. We have a UK Government in chaos, an economy facing a crisis and people up and down the country facing serious hardship. There is an urgent need to make a stand against any austerity and the slashing of environmental legislation, human and workers’ rights, that may come with Brexit.
With the growing likelihood of an early General Election, the importance of progressive parties working together to prevent the formation of a Tory-UKIP-DUP government that would seek to enact an ultra-right Brexit scenario is ever more pressing.This is an opportunity to recognise that a more plural politics is in both the Left’s electoral and political interests. This crisis exposes the absurdity of our first past the post electoral system. Just 24 per cent of those eligible to vote elected the government that called the referendum. The only fair way to proceed is to have a proportional voting system where people can back the politicians who they believe in, rather than taking a gamble and not knowing who they will end up with.
The idea of a progressive alliance has been floated for several years, and proposals have once again been put forward in the context of the current crisis. We believe that the time has come to urgently consider such ideas together in the context of a Westminster Government. We recognise the very different political situation in Scotland, given the strongly pro-EU majority there. We hope that co-operation between progressive parties there can ensure that this mandate is respected, and we will support them to keep all options open.We look forward to your response,

signed 

Natalie Bennett, Leader of The Green Party of England and WalesSteven Agnew MLA, Leader of the Green Party of Northern IrelandAlice Hooker-Stroud, Leader of Wales Green PartyCaroline Lucas, MP for Brighton Pavilion

If the leader of the Northern Irish Greens who have has operated as a region of the Green Party of Ireland since 2006 . Why wasn't the letter written to the leader of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon and why wasn'y it signed by the Scottish Greens ?

But its seeing the Leader of "The Green Party of England and Wales" and then Leader of" Wales Green Party"

Apart from "Wales Green Party" sounding horrible  whey not Green Party of Wales , it looks that the Greens are merely an appendage of England in Wales.

Of course the Unionist Parties Branch Manager in England and Scotland also claim to be the leader there.

But if the Greens here do make seriously moves for a distinct Identity  they will find them selves accused of supporting Wangland  after Scotland makes its departure which will be a great pity.

I don't think the Greens in Wales can grow unless they push forward in the same way they have in Scotland where they seem to have got a further surge.

Lets face it would your rather  see 7 Green Members in the Assembly rather than the two Ukip fractions that there are there now?

Corbyn coup may destroy any reason to be a party member,

I do not support the Labour Party to mind it is a Unionist Party which has betrayed  Wales  and the Loyalty not only in its Laissez Faire  attitude to Devolution but  its pursuit of Middle England and betrayal of the Working Class communities who for so long have given their votes for very little  reward..

However Jeremy Corbyn  is the first  Labour Leader who has supported many of the causes I back and not because he thought doing this would enhance his political career.

Indeed It is a pity Peter Black does not realise this 

In a Post which quotes Shakespeare's  " Vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself" he tries to tar Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn with same brush.

On

 Johnson he his right ...

Two players stand out in the developing farce. There is Boris Johnson, whose personal ambition has led Britain to the brink of a major economic depression, only for him to bottle the final act and withdraw from the battle for the Tory leadership. The quiet assassin in the case was Michael Gove, a man running for a job he has said nine times he lacks the competence and capability to do.

But is he right about Corbyn 

The second player is Jeremy Corbyn, who is seemingly standing Lear-like, unmoved at the top of the Labour Party as his political family desert him. His conceit is that he represents the rank and file of the Labour Party against the vested interests of an establishment which has never accepted him. In that he may be right, but only another leadership contest will offer proof. 

The point of the whole Corbyn challenge is that the Parliamentary Party has always planned  to remove Cobyn even before his election was confirmed. 

As probably the best Blog in these Islands Another Angry Voice  points out 

The coup was pre-planned. There is absolutely no doubt about that. The people who were planning it were so confident of success that they even briefed the Daily Telegraph about their plot to overthrow Corbyn ten days before the referendum result was even announced!
The fact the coup was pre-planned blew a large hole in the narrative that Corbyn had to be ousted because of hissupposedly weak EU referendum arguments ruining the Remain campaign. In order for that narrative to make sense, the plotters would have had to have known the result of the referendum in advance, which they couldn't have done.
The Canary have done some sterling investigative work into the shady network of dodgy PR companies stuffed full of Blairites, shell companies, BBC collusion and so forth who are implicated in the coup attempt. It was inept enough to leave such a trail of evidence to follow up on, but the sheer hubris of telling the newspapers what they were going to do ten days before they did it looks like the kind of PR cock-up that Blair, Mandelson, Campbell and the like worked strenuously to avoid during their time at the top.
Apparently the methods are pretty much the same as classic Blairism, but the execution has become sloppy, over-confident and bizarrely incompetent.

The message to the Membership is  " do think you can elect a leader who reflects your views and values ", We the PLP will decide on who the leader is .
 If the plotters  are to succeed then it there is absolutely no reason to be a Party Member unless you are simply there to provide a workforce fir an elite.

Labour might as well copy Australian politics and simply change their leader  even their  Prime Minister  

Upon Labor's victory in the 2007 federal election, Julia  Gillard became the first female Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, and held the cabinet portfolios of Minister for Education, Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations and Minister for Social Inclusion. On 24 June 2010, after Rudd lost the support of his party and resigned, Gillard was elected unopposed as the Leader of the Labor Party, thus becoming the 27th Prime Minister of Australia. The subsequent 2010 federal election saw the first hung parliament since the 1940 federal election. Gillard was able to form a minority government with the support of a Green MP and three independent MPs. On 26 June 2013, after a leadership spill, Gillard lost the leadership of the Labor Party to Rudd. Her resignation as Prime Minister took effect the following day. Gillard retired from politics on 5 August 2013, before the impending federal election.

The same thing happened among the opposition Party 

Tony Abbott led the Coalition at the 2010 election, which resulted in a hung parliament. Following negotiations, Labor formed a Government, with the support of one Greens MP and three Independent MPs. Abbott was re-elected as Liberal Leader unopposed. Abbott went on to lead the Coalition to victory in the 2013 election and was sworn in as the 28th Prime Minister of Australia on 18 September 2013. On 14 September 2015, Abbott was defeated in a vote for the Liberal leadership (54 votes to 44) by Malcolm Turnbull, who replaced Abbott as Prime Minister the following day.

Do we really want a political that an elite of elects members totally control who the Party leaders are and the poor bloody infantry are merely cannon fodder for the party machine,

You can't lead by obeying the mob.

"There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader." — Alexandre Ledru-Rollin

There has been a remarkable variation pf the French agitator remark during the  early events of the 1948 revolution in France,

It sees Boris Johnson was 

"Cripes there go the people I don't fancy my chances leading them".

Meanwhile amongst Labour MPs there was a feeling

" There go the people lets use the opportunity to ditch out leader"

Nicola Sturgeon response could be said  to be

"There go the people but not our people  and they know I lead them.

Meanwhile maybe Leanne Wood reaction may have been

"There go the people" maybe its time try and lead them in another direction"

So apart for a early gut traction of going into coalition with Labour on the Assembly something that did not go down well with a number of her AM the  leader of Plaid Cymru has called for the people of Wales to start discussing the possibility of the country becoming independent.

Leanne Wood said Brexit was an opportunity to break free from the UK – and though Wales voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU she argued that its citizens would think again if the country became independent.

Plaid has long advocated independence for Wales but seen it as a long-term aspiration rather than a short-term goal. Brexit has altered that.

Wood said:

 “Last Thursday’s vote has changed everything. In all likelihood, with Scotland voting to remain, the UK will cease to exist in the near future. Northern Ireland will be considering its future too.


“Even though this situation was not of our making, Plaid Cymru believes that redesigning the current UK is the only option. A new union of independent nations working together for the common good.
“It is my belief that this independent Wales in a completely different context to last week’s referendum would want to be a part of theEuropean Union.
“This is a huge challenge that we face. All of us, whether we voted in or out should be prepared to be bold and confident in being able to forge a new, strong, inclusive, outward-looking future for our nation.”

As the Guardiam pointed out   

Generally, polls put the number of Welsh people keen on independence at around 10%. Following last year’s Scottish independence referendum, the number fell to 3% in one poll.

If Plaid paid attention to these Polls  then it might  as well give up now But it is the job of Politician who have genuine belief in a clause to convince the people even when they are hostile to change their opinions.

We have seen an unseemly move by cynical politicians  particularly Labour to adopt the right wing rhetoric over Immigration. Highlighted  by this appalling Mug which was sols by the Party during the last election




It didn't work of course.

Abandoning your principles to meet the hysteria whipped up to  by a right wing media which many many voters who have no experience of immigration  fell for is not the way to lead.

Standing by your principals may not immediately pay off but abandoning could mean they are lost for ever,