Cock Up or Conspiracy Labours failed 2019 GE strategy in Wales

I don't know whether  the revelation made by the Sunday Times that  Welsh Labour’s General Secretary tried to warn the party that they had their 2019 General Election campaign strategy in Wales wrong, according to a leaked document shows that it was part of a conspiracy by some Labour Strategists to sabotage the 2019 Election in order to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn and his left supporters 

However you would be forgiven if you felt that way , because if it was a Cock Up instead of a conspiracy , one wonders about Labour capacity to run a government.

Nation Cymru report that 

"UK Labour’s Key Seats Strategy from September 2019 election was posted online by Gabriel Pogrund, the Sunday Times’ Whitehall Correspondent.

It reveals that the party were planning on defending zero seats in Wales, even though their own polling showed 18 constituencies were in great danger of falling to other parties – including 15 to the Conservatives, two to the Lib Dems and one to the Brexit Party.

According to the document, the Welsh General Secretary, Louise Magee, raised concerns about the strategy.

“The Welsh General Secretary expressed her concern about the absence of any defensive seats on the list in Wales,” the document says.

“She thought all of Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham, Ynys Môn, and Cardiff North were potentially in need of resourcing, above all given recent Welsh polling, and that although she understood the rationale and supported the objective, she did wonder whether a slightly more defensive posture would be appropriate given that we had a Welsh Labour government and therefore our campaign in Wales would not have the insurgent character of an election campaign in England.”

Louise Magee was eventually proven right, as the Labour Party lost six seats, each of which was won by the Conservative Party.

The strategy as set out in the document however was to go on the offensive in Aberconwy, Arfon, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan.

Bizarrely, however, the document’s MRP polling approach had the Conservatives winning in Arfon, the Liberal Democrats in Aberconwy and the Vale of Glamorgan (where they did not stand), and the Brexit Party winning Dwyfor Meirionnydd, all seats where those parties were not in contention.

 Perhaps the most ridiculous idea was the Brexut Party winning Dwyfor Merionidd, who had voted Remain in the Referendum and  Ukip , from where the Brexit Party emerged had not fared well even at their hights 

General election 2015: Dwyfor Meirionnydd^[4][5][6][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Liz Saville Roberts	11,811	40.9	-3.4
	Conservative	Neil Fairlamb	6,550	22.7	+0.4
	Labour	Mary Clarke	3,904	13.5	-0.4
	UKIP	Christopher Gillibrand[8]	3,126	10.8	+8.1
	Independent	Louise Hughes	1,388	4.8	+0.3
	Liberal Democrats	Steven Churchman	1,153	4.0	-8.2
	Green	Marc Fothergill	981	3.4	N/A
Majority			5,261	18.2	-3.8
Turnout			28,913	65.1	+1.4
Registered electors			44,394
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-1.9

General election 2017: Dwyfor Meirionnydd^[9][10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Liz Saville Roberts	13,687	45.1	+4.2
	Conservative	Neil Fairlamb	8,837	29.1	+6.4
	Labour	Mathew Norman	6,273	20.7	+7.2
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Churchman	937	3.1	-0.9
	UKIP	Frank Wykes	614	2.0	-8.8
Majority			4,850	16.0	-2.2
Turnout			30,312	68.0	+2.9
Registered electors			44,699
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-1.1

The same could be said or the Tories in Arfon

General election 2015: Arfon^[9][10][11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams	11,790	43.9	+7.9
	Labour	Alun Pugh	8,122	30.3	-0.1
	Conservative	Anwen Barry[12]	3,521	13.1	-3.8
	UKIP	Simon Wall	2,277	8.5	+5.9
	Liberal Democrats	Mohammed Shultan	718	2.7	-11.4
	Socialist Labour	Kathrine Jones	409	1.5	N/A
Majority			3,668	13.7	+8.1
Turnout			26,837	66.3	+3.0
Registered electors			40,492
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	+4.0

General election 2017: Arfon^[13][14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams	11,519	40.8	-3.1
	Labour	Mary Clarke	11,427	40.5	+10.2
	Conservative	Philippa Parry	4,614	16.4	+3.3
	Liberal Democrats	Calum Davies	648	2.3	-0.4
Majority			92	0.3	-13.4
Turnout			28,208	68.2	+1.9
Registered electors			41,367
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-6.7

and the Liberal Democrats in Aberconwy

General election 2015: Aberconwy^[6][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Guto Bebb	12,513	41.5	+5.7
	Labour	Mary Wimbury	8,514	28.2	+3.7
	Plaid Cymru	Dafydd Meurig	3,536	11.7	−6.1
	UKIP	Andrew Haigh	3,467	11.5	+9.4
	Liberal Democrats	Victor Babu[8]	1,391	4.6	−14.7
	Green	Petra Haig[9]	727	2.4	N/A
Rejected ballots			59
Majority			3,999	13.3	+2.0
Turnout			30,148	66.2	-1.0
Registered electors			45,525
	Conservative hold		Swing	+1.0

General election 2017: Aberconwy^[10][11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Guto Bebb	14,337	44.6	+3.1
	Labour	Emily Owen	13,702	42.6	+14.4
	Plaid Cymru	Wyn Elis Jones	3,170	9.9	−1.8
	Liberal Democrats	Sarah Leister-Burgess	941	2.9	−1.7
Rejected ballots			78
Majority			635	2.0	−10.7
Turnout			32,150	71.0	+4.8
Registered electors			45,251
	Conservative hold		Swing	−5.7

In the end Labour were accused of concentrating on Arfon by bussing activists from Liverpool  into the constituency held by Plaid Cymru .On their way there they bypassed several Labour marginal seat closer to home, such as Wrexham.

Now, if Hywel Williams the Plaid Cymru MP was a dreadful right-wing nationalist that might have been understandable, but if they had actually checked his record on the They Work For You website, they would have found a voting record on major issues that would please the vast majority of Labour supporters.

Of course, as a result of this terrible campaign Hywel Williams increased his majority, Labour lost all but one of their ‘red wall’ of seats across the north of Wales to the Conservatives.

Cock Up or Conspiracy? Probably a bit of both , I can't believe that Labour strategist were so out of touch that they could not identify the seats to concentrate on but it actually appears so . though I suspect Wales is often of the Radar , from their London HQ an outlook which has led to their demise in Scotland.

Labour seem to be relying on Blair 1997 strategy of seeing the Tories lose an election rathr than them winning it .

However whilst the scandals and incompetence of the 1992-1997 John Major  are being repeated , they don't seem to actually affecting , the  actaul polling.

Of course unlike Blair  Keir Stammar has not completely sold his soul to Rupert Murdoch and the rest of the  right wing media, but it can't be long now.