On 10 August we will see the first result of the the three candidates in the four party leadership elections as UKIP Welsh Assembly leadership contenders will cross the border and head to the Devon town of Newton Abbot - UKIP's HQ - to find out which of them has won.
The timetable has already slipped - the result was meant to be declared by the end of July. A problem printing the ballot papers has held things up.UKIP hopes the vote will settle the row that led to former assembly group leader Neil Hamilton being pushed out in favour of Caroline Jones.
But while the public contest has been very quiet, behind the scenes it seems relations between the key players are as bad as ever.
The party in the assembly has been hit by a row over who within the group of five should do an important job - representing the party on the Assembly Commission.
After Neil Hamilton was rejected from the post by AMs from other parties for a second time, the group has appeared unable to select an alternative.
Sitting leader Caroline Jones has also not been holding, in recent weeks, regular group meetings.
Given they have been struggling to even hold meetings, the question remains whether the gang of five AMs can hold together under the same banner after the result of the leadership ballot is revealed.
Some of the recent problems have been revealed in a series of emails, seen by BBC Wales, from Neil Hamilton and another AM, Gareth Bennett, that make accusations against Caroline Jones and an aide.All three are candidates in the leadership contest.
Mr Hamilton alleged that Ms Jones had been "colluding with our political opponents" to undermine the UKIP group's decision for Mr Hamilton to remain the group's candidate for the Assembly Commission despite continued opposition from Plaid and Labour members.
The basis of the complaint is that, after the re-nomination was rejected by senior AMs on the business committee, a proposal for Ms Jones to do the job was brought up at a further meeting of the committee last week.
The paper trail shows that an aide to Ms Jones had sent colleagues an email saying Ms Jones would do the job voluntarily until AMs could be persuaded of Mr Hamilton's nomination, or someone else was found.
With no response to the email, it was assumed by the aide that there was no problem. (Mr Hamilton did apparently attempt to object, but the response was allegedly sent to the wrong address).
Mr Bennett wrote that the matter was raised at the committee as a UKIP group nomination.
"I replied that that was news to me, as I had received no instruction from the Group to nominate anybody," he wrote.
Mr Hamilton accused Ms Jones of informing the presiding officer Elin Jones directly.
A source close to Caroline Jones denied this, saying a clerk to the committee was told, as they had been told before about the push to re-nominate Mr Hamilton that was rejected.
But this was enough for Mr Bennett to claim Ms Jones and an aide had "undermined his position as group business manager", claiming there had been a "considerable amount of back-channelling".
The source rejected the accusations against Ms Jones and the aide, and accused Mr Hamilton of "doing everything he can to undermine Caroline to become leader again".BBC Wales understands that the aide felt they had been following procedures they were taught to follow.Ukip have been having a bit of a rise in the UK polls recently almost entirely at the expenses of the Tories as the latter see government resignations , by Hard Brexiters as Prime Minister May carries on with he Omni-shambles of trying to
The lack of a further decision from the group on who should be commissioner has not been helped by the fact that the group has not been meeting.
Mr Hamilton claimed this had been decided by Ms Jones unilaterally.
But an email from a group aide said the meetings were cancelled because of their disruptive nature, and that a number of AMs had felt that way.
Mr Hamilton declined to comment on the emailed comments when asked by BBC Wales.
get a uniform acceptance within her party over trade deals after Brexit.
It has led Labour to be ahead for the first but they are still largely static,
| ) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Area | Sample size | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP | Plaid | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–24 Jul | Ipsos MORI | GB | 1,023 | 38% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | Tie |
| 22–23 Jul | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,650 | 38% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 0% | Tie | |
| 20–22 Jul | ICM Research | GB | 2,010 | 40% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 19–20 Jul | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,668 | 38% | 39% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | |
| 16–17 Jul | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,657 | 36% | 41% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 5% | |
| 12–14 Jul | Deltapoll/The Sun on Sunday | GB | 1,484 | 37% | 42% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 5% |
| 10–13 Jul | Opinium/Observer | GB | 2,005 | 36% | 40% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| 10–11 Jul | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,732 | 37% | 39% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| 8–9 Jul | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,669 | 39% | 39% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | Tie | |
| 6–9 Jul | ICM/The Guardian | GB | 2,013 | 41% | 39% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 5–9 Jul | Kantar TNS | GB | 1,086 | 40% | 38% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 7 Jul | Survation | UK | 1,007 | 38% | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | N/A | N/A | 7% | 2% |
| 3–5 Jul | BMG Research | GB | 1,511 | 39% | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| 3–4 Jul | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,641 | 41% | 40% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | |
| 22–27 Jun | Ipsos MORI | GB | 1,026 | 41% | 38% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| 25–26 Jun | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,645 | 42% | 37% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | |
| 22–24 Jun | ICM/The Guardian | GB | 2,013 | 41% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 19–20 Jun | Survation/Good Morning Britain | UK | 1,022 | 41% | 38% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| 18–19 Jun | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,606 | 42% | 40% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | |
| 11–12 Jun | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,638 | 42% | 39% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| 8–10 Jun | ICM/The Guardian | GB | 2,021 | 42% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 2% |
| 5–8 Jun | BMG Research/Independent | GB | 1,490 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 5–7 Jun | Opinium/Observer | GB | 2,005 | 42% | 40% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| 4–5 Jun | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,619 | 44% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 7% | |
| 31 May–4 Jun | Survation | UK | 2,012 | 41% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 28–29 May | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,670 | 42% | 39% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| 25–29 May | ICM/The Guardian | GB | 2,002 | 43% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 18–22 May | Ipsos MORI | GB | 1,015 | 40% | 40% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 0% | Tie |
| 20–21 May | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,660 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4% | |
| 16–17 May | ComRes/Daily Mail | GB | 2,045 | 41% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | Tie |
| 15–16 May | Opinium//Observer | GB | 2,009 | 43% | 39% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| 13–14 May | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,634 | 43% | 38% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | |
| 11–13 May | ICM/The Guardian | GB | 2,050 | 43% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| 8–10 May | Survation | UK | 1,585 | 41% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 8–9 May | YouGov/The Times | GB | 1,648 | 43% | 38% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | |
| 1–4 May | BMG Research/Independent | GB | 1441 | 39% | 39% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 1% | Tie |
It is perhaps fortunate for all the Assembly parties that we are entering the summer recess and they don't have to give a presence of Unity in the chamber.
Plaid has its own problems whilst Welsh Labour may have the embarrassment of nor having a female candidate among rumors that Eluned Morgan may not have received enough nominations (6) from Labour AMs to appear on the Ballot.
Labour may be hoping for a coronation of Mark Drayford or a quite genial leadership contest in the wake of acrimonious battles amomg the opposition.
It would certainly be a great benefit. but if Ms Morgan does not appear on the Ballot then expect a major row.
No comments:
Post a Comment