Tuesday, 15 July 2014

Labour need to have a bigger poll lead.

With less than a year to go if Labour are to gain a overall majority it seems clear that they need a much bigger  lead in the polls 

The latest ICM Poll however puts the Tories ahead  and

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Meanwhile POLLS HOME Lord Ashcrofts National Poll has Labour with a 4% lead 

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%

So from these it does look like Ukip votes will affect the Tories more than any other Party .,

Despite coming second  in the ICM Poll Labour would still be the largest Party  but needing to find a coalition Partner
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The Ashcroft Poll could see Labour with an overall majority of 44 

But clear no sign that Labour are storming to Victory and we can reflect back yo 1992 when John Major had seen a a number of huge byelection defeats only for them to scrape through .

Ironically this led to sea change in Labour in Scotland's call for a Scottish Parliament.

So what will a Scotland be like if after voting NO  on the morning after May 7th next year the people wake up to a Conservative government that sees Euroceptic  in much of the cabinet and no desire for pushing any form of Devomax 

I personally believe Labour wil need a Poll lead of over 6% by the end of the year in order to ward of slippage due to a hostile pres who are unlikely to warm to Miliband in the same way as they did Blair in 1997.

Indeed I see nothing to convince me that the Conservatives will not win the General Election  nex May.

It has been said that A No vote will end the "Independence  Question" in Scotland for a generation  but as the result in 1992 showed a Conservative victory in May  could lead to another referendum much sooner than that.

1 comment:

  1. The tories will be kicking themselves if they won the popular vote yet lost the election. They will regret not backing AV