Friday, 6 June 2014

Ukip come second in Newark . Progress or Flop?

So Ukip despite leading the European Election Poll have still to have to win a Westminster Parliamentary By-Election
By-Election 2014: Newark[19][20]
ConservativeRobert Jenrick17,43145.0-8.9
UKIPRoger Helmer10,02825.9+22.1
LabourMichael Payne6,84217.7-4.7
IndependentPaul Baggaley1,8914.9N/A
GreenDavid Kirwan1,0572.7N/A
Liberal DemocratDavid Watts1,0042.6-17.4
Monster Raving LoonyNick The Flying Brick1680.4N/A
IndependentAndy Hayes1170.3N/A
Bus-Pass Elvis PartyDavid Bishop870.2N/A
Common GoodDick Rodgers640.2N/A
Patriotic Socialist PartyLee Woods180.0N/A
Conservative holdSwing-15.5

General Election 2010: Newark[21]
ConservativePatrick Mercer27,59053.9+3.4
LabourIan Campbell11,43822.3−6.0
Liberal DemocratPauline Jenkins10,24620.0+1.6
UKIPRev Major Tom Irvine1,9543.8+1.0
Conservative holdSwing+4.7

    At first glance this l would look like an impressive swing to Ukip but they failed in a seat that saw rge previous Tory MPercer resigning  after an investigation by the BBC's Panorama programme regarding allegations of paid lobbying without registering the interest.

    Itis is allso a huge disapointment for Labour who gained the seat in the Bair landslid Fiona Jones  of 1997

    General Election 1997: Newark
    LabourFiona Jones23,49645.2
    ConservativeRichard Alexander20,48039.4
    Liberal DemocratPeter Harris5,96011.5
    Referendum PartyGraham Creedy2,0353.9N/A
    Labour gain from ConservativeSwing
    Jones was accused of fraudulently failing to declare the full amount of her election costs, and convicted of election fraud in March 1999 and had the Labour whip withdrawn. She was the first MP to be disqualified from membership of theHouse of Commons for that offence since it was introduced by the Corrupt and Illegal Practices Prevention Act 1883. However, the Court of Appeal overturned her conviction within weeks: the disqualification was revoked, and she resumed her place in the House of Commons. However, she lost her seat in the 2001 general election. She later lost a civil case brought against the police for malicious prosecution, and ultimately succumbed to alcoholism.

    She contested her seat in the 2001 general election, but lost to the Conservative candidate Patrick Mercer. So it possible Labour would have held the seat up to 2010

    So Labour may have held the seat  up to 2010]

    For the Liberal Democrats it;s another they finish sixth.They wee once the Byelection masters particularly in the period of the Major government but now are beginning to look like a fringe party.

    But what we really need to know where are the Ukip votes coming from?
    Maybe i time to look at the numbers rather than the percentages.

    The Tories ost 10159
    Labour Lost 4594
    Liberal Democrats Lost  9242
    Ukip Gained 15477
    12521 fewer People  voted 

    So for example did Liberal Democrats vote go to Ukip or did it go to the Tories to stop Ukip or stay at home?

    Maybe its time we had a decent poll of switches only then can we even hope to gather a true picture.

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