The latest opinion poll taken just after the European Elections indicates.Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next assembly election and UKIP will win its first seats in Cardiff Bay,
The survey, commissioned by BBC Wales, shows
Labour on 36%
Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “Labour are still in the lead but their vote share for both General and Assembly elections has been sliding in Wales for about the last 18 months. Compared to other polls Labour are down in terms of support for the National Assembly elections – on the constituency vote they are down about 10 percentage points over the last year to 15 months.
“The polls until fairly recently were showing Labour a long way ahead of their opponents; now it’s starting to look rather more competitive.”
On Ukip, he said: “I think the big question for Ukip is whether their current levels of support are sustainable – I have to say, given this poll was done fairly soon after the European elections I actually would have expected them to do a bit better, I would have expected them to get a little bit more of a bounce in support, so it’s a fairly good poll for Ukip but not an outstandingly good one.
“The other interesting thing we see in this poll is increasing support for Plaid Cymru.
“Plaid have been slowly edging up in the polls in Wales over the last year or so, and this poll sees them make another move forward, and while Plaid are not yet in a position where they are challenging for first place, this is much the best level of support Plaid have seen in a poll for National Assembly elections for several years, and that’s clearly encouraging for them.”
The poll was commissioned by BBC Wales. ICM Research interviewed 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone on May 22-June 1. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Welsh adults.