The news that that independent AM Trish Law is to stand down next year comes as no surprise, after Dai Davies emphatic defeat in this years Parliamentary elections, and the voluntary implosion of Peoples Voice Though some may well have argued that she would have won through good will and the seeming arrogance of Labour candidate Alun Davies.
However baring Alun Davies making some extreme gaffes and being seen as taking the seat for granted he should be comfortably elected next May.
Unless of course if the electors of Blaneau Gwent having had a taste for rebellion do so once again.
But for the other Party’s Alas the mathematics are not there.
In the first Assembly Elections Phil Williams did take 21.1 % but was way behind Peter Law who was then the Labour Candidate.
And the Higest Liberal vote was in the Parliamentary seat in 1983 (their best year in Wales for years) and that was only 15.1%. They are however the only other mainstream Party on the council with two seats but I don't think that's enough to single them out as a contender.
Incidentally Blaneau Gwents council website is one of the worst I've ever seen where I can't seem to get councillor details and they don't give people information on Regional Assembly members.
The Tories haven't even reached the small percentages of the other Parties even in good years for them.
It's possible with a dynamic candidate one of the Parties might make an impact particualy if Trish Law was to enorse him or her.. But this seems unlikely and an interesting era in the politics of Blaneau Gwent in particular and Wales in general seem to be coming to an end.