National Left - Wales needs a progressive left future.
Friday, 5 June 2020
Latest Welsh Opinion Polls still sees Tories in second place.
Rather than repeat Professor Roger Awan-Scully number crunching I am directing you to his Election Wales and Nation Cymru for the details . It is because they concentrate largely on the fall in the Tory support since the last poll and not on how this would see the change in the Senedd from the 2016 elections.
Because even on a poll that sees the support colapse the Tories would still see a rise in the number of seats
#Seats change on 2016:
Labour: 25 seats (-4)
Conservative: 19 seats (+8)
Plaid Cymru: 15 seats (+3)
Lib Dems: 1 seat (+0)
Ukip/Brexit Party 0 seats (-7)
Indeed the Tories may well have lost much of the Anti-Corbyn vote they achived in the UK December Election but if the current pol is repeated make up for it with Ukip/Brexit votes
Labour with 24 seats could still run a ninority government but will still be largely reliant on a supply and demand support from Plaid or the Tories and a Labour / Plaid coalition looks like the inevitable outcome.
One telling point is that Boris Johnson has seen a big decline in his approval ratings in Wales while First Minister Mark Drakeford has seen a marked increase, .
Rated on a 0-10 scale, Boris Johnson’s approval fell to an average of 4.1 out of 10 compared to 5.3 out of 1 in the last Welsh poll in April.Meanwhile, Mark Drakeford’s rating had increased by almost as much from 4 out of 10 to 5.1 out of 10 on average.
Even then if it becomes unpopular or lead to arie in cases it may be that Labour may hope that blame falls on the shoulder of the Education Minister Kirsty Williams who of course is the sole Liberal Democrat in (not a coalition) the Welsh Labour Government.
Indeed i wonder how many Labour polticians will be ken to throw Ms Williams under a Bus.