Peterborough by-election Brexit limited company come up short.

In some ways the Conservatives may not be to distressed about , their third place in the Peterborough byelection.


When it was obvious that  after  the Labour MP Fiona Onasanya  had bee n convicted and imprisoned  after being charged with perverting the course of justice in relation to two speeding incidents which occurred in 2017 it looked like in what was a Labour- Tory  marginal any byelection would be a two horse race.

Then out of  nowhere a well financed and organised Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage appeared and put the two main parties to the sword.

The recall petition was called on 19 March and was available for signature until 1 May 2019.^[]On the day prior to the recall petition being called, Onasanya released a video protesting her innocence.

On 1 May it was announced that the recall petition had exceeded the necessary threshold of being signed by 10% of electors in her seat: 19,261 electors, or 27.6%, had signed the petition. As a result, her seat was declared vacant, causing a by-election in Peterborough.

Still under normal condition  it may well have been only the Liberal Democrats ewho could provide a shock.

General Election 2017: Peterborough^[77]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Fiona Onasanya	22,950	48.1	+12.5
	Conservative	Stewart Jackson	22,343	46.8	+7.1
	Liberal Democrat	Beki Sellick	1,597	3.3	−0.4
	Green	Fiona Radić	848	1.8	-0.8
Majority			607	1.3
Turnout			47,738	67.5	+2.6
	Labour gain from Conservative 480		Swing	+2.7

Still on a turnout of 48.04%  Farage's limited company masquerading as tge Brexit Part almost provided a shock

General Election 2015: Peterborough^[78]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Stewart Jackson	18,684	39.7	-0.7
	Labour	Lisa Forbes	16,759	35.6	+6.1
	UKIP	Mary Herdman	7,485	15.9	+9.2
	Liberal Democrat	Darren Fower	1,774	3.8	-15.9
	Green	Darren Bisby-Boyd	1,218	2.6	+1.4
	Liberal	Chris Ash	639	1.4	N/A
	Independent	John Fox	516	1.1	N/A
Majority			1,925	4.1	-6.7
Turnout			47,075	64.9	+1.0
	Conservative hold		Swing	-3.4

Still on a smaller turnout  of

2019 by-election: Peterborough^[76]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Lisa Forbes	10,484	31	-17
	Brexit	Mike Greene	9,801	29	+29
	Conservative	Paul Bristow	7,243	21	-25
	Liberal Democrat	Beki Sellick	4,159	12	+9
	Green	Joseph Wells	1,035	3	+1
	UKIP	John Whitby	400	1	+1
	Christian Peoples	Tom Rogers	162
	English Democrat	Stephen Goldspink	153
	SDP	Patrick O'Flynn	135
	Monster Raving Loony	Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope	112
	No description	Andrew Moore	101
	Common Good	Dick Rodgers	60
	Renew	Peter Ward	45
	UK EU	Pierre Kirk	25
	No description	Bobby Smith	5
Majority			683
Turnout				48.4
	Labour hold		Swing

Clearly it was the Conservatives  who were the big losers but they will probably argue that a vote for the Brexit Party will lead to a Corbyn government so expect them to spon this.

What was unusual was that the Liberal Democrats were not entirely squeezed and saq a 9% increase in their vote and they and the Greens actually saw an increase in the number of votes.

What this means for UK politics is unclear, bur foe Wales and Scotland  if you don't want  to be run by a Xenophobic English Nationalism of a Tory-Brexit Party in Westminster , then especially those who voted for Remain parties in the Euro Elections  must ironically think about leaving another Union.