Saturday, 22 June 2019

I doubt there will be Pro-Remain pact in Brecon and Radnorshire ,

Plaid may well have a sincere  in suggesting  a coalition with other parties might be in the offing after Brecon and Radnorshire Conservative MP Chris Davies was ousted by his constituents

Nation Cymru tell us that 

Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price had previously written to the leaders of pro-Remain parties during and after the EU Elections, calling on them to work together to push for a People’s Vote.A Plaid Cymru Spokesperson said:  “The people of Brecon and Radnorshire have spoken and a by-election will now take place. This will likely be a crucial first test for the incoming Conservative Prime Minister.“The two-party status quo in Westminster is breaking down. In last month’s European elections many voters broke the habit of a lifetime by choosing to back pro-People’s Vote parties, rather than the Conservatives or Labour.“Ensuring those of us who want to see a fresh referendum work together, at every possible level, to deliver this aim is crucial. We will explore options for how we can work together, across party lines, to deliver this in the upcoming Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.”
But I doubt the Liberal Democrats , would not be interested  in a coalition and only want Plaid and the Greens to stand down in their favour.

It is of course a Target seat

General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire[10]
ConservativeChristopher Davies20,08148.6+7.5
Liberal DemocratJames Gibson-Watt12,04329.1+0.8
LabourDan Lodge7,33517.7+3.0
Plaid CymruKate Heneghan1,2993.1-1.3
UKIPPeter Gilbert5761.4-6.9
Registered electors56,010
Conservative holdSwing+3.4
Which they have held in the past  
General election 2010: Brecon and Radnorshire[14][15]
Liberal DemocratRoger Williams17,92946.2+1.3
ConservativeSuzy Davies14,18236.5+1.9
LabourChris Lloyd4,09610.4−4.5
Plaid CymruJanet Davies9892.5−1.1
UKIPClive Easton8762.3+0.4
GreenDorienne Robinson3410.9N/A
ChristianJeffery Green2220.6N/A
Monster Raving LoonyChris "Lord Offa of the Dyke" Rogers2100.5N/A
Registered electors53,589
Liberal Democrat holdSwing−0.3

Elections in the 2000s

They lost it in the 2015 election after their disastrous gig as David Cameron.s bag carriers

Since then of course they have as of late a revival  and would fancy thier chances in the forthcoming byelection.

However there is a new player in town in Nigel Farage 's Brexit Party Limited Company and Electoral Calculus even predict it being a two horse race between  the Brexit Party Limited Company and the Liberal democrats.

CON Majority8,03819.4%Pred Maj 2.0%

The Plaid Green vote may well help the Liberal Democrats to win the seat but they , would clearly like to win on their own back.

With no current MPs and only one Assembly member They are desperate to reestablish themselves in Wales and have eyes on neighbouring  Ceredigion.

It may be in the interest of both Wales and the UK for a coalition defeat of the Brexit Party Limited Company on Brecon and Radnorshire . but it is not in that of the Liberal Democrats and that will prevail.

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