Saturday, 19 December 2015

Welsh Assembly elections may decide Ukip's UK leadership.

The leader of Ukip in Wales has unsurprisingly  heaped praise on his UK boss Nigel Farage after the party’s only sitting MP suggested he should be replaced.
Ukip Wales MEP Nathan Gilll defended Mr Farage after Douglas Carswell said the party needed a “fresh face”. 

I imaging whatever the feelings of Ukip members  in Wales (How many are there?) . The prospect of having a bitter leadership election before the welsh Assembly Election is not one they would welcome.

So it hardly uprising that Mr Gill said

“I cannot fathom what Mr Carswell is trying to achieve but if he thinks he is on the pulse of the UKIP membership, or the voter, then he is just plain wrong.
“I, along with my colleagues, are seething at these ridiculous remarks.”

Mr Gill described his leader as “incredible”, a “superb orator” and doing “more than anybody else to take the debate over our EU membership to the British people.”
“He is an inspiration with an incredible work ethic,” he said.
“He is also the man doing more than anybody else to take the debate over our EU membership to the British people.”

In an interview with BBC Essex, Clacton MP Mr Carswell said:

 “The Oldham by-election to me said very clearly that I think we need a fresh face.”
Mr Carswell suggested that Mr Farage had taken the party as far as he could and Ukip needed to “change gear”.
He said: “We all need to think very carefully as to whether or not we can build beyond the base we have now got without that change.
“We have gone from being a party with 2%-3% market share to a party with 13%, 14%, 15% market share, and that’s a phenomenal achievement, an incredible achievement and no one can ever say that that hasn’t been an achievement.
“But sometimes a start-up needs to change gear and to change its management if it is to go to the next level.”

Mr Carswell is  Ukip's sole MP and it MR Farage remains the prospect of loosing their sole MP seems possible .

 The former UKIP MP Mark Reckless is to take on a leading role in the party's campaign to win seats in the National Assembly for Wales and  he seems likely to stand and win a Regional seat in the Election.

What will Nigel Farage's role in these elections be.

Will despite Nathan Gills protestations of Loyalty we he welcome a strong presence  Ukip leader in Wales.

Will he be seen an asset or as seen in Scotland his presence seems to have a negative effect.

There has been much speculation over the effect  the Scottish and Welsh Elections in May may have on Jermey Corbyn's leadership  of Labour.

But it may well be Wales that decide it . Labour have already written of Scotland but to lose seats in Wales will give Corbyn's enemies ammunition.

But if Ukip do not do as well the polls indicate in Wales then they will look for an excuse and Farage may well be blamed.

Indeed the future of Ukip may well depend on the Welsh result . They have be faltering in local government elections since last May and with a Euro referendum apparently coming sooner than later Ukip may well have the plank pulled from under them.



  1. Currently Mr Carswell and the UKIP Euro MPs are their only full tine paid elected members. UKIP and the far right generally do poorly in London. The BNP complained when they were invited to attend a Question Time session that it was a "foreign city" and after Oldham West UKIP made a comment about Asian voters and their loyalty to Labour. In Scotland UKIP is an also ran. So are we in Wales going to be responsible for giving them their only opportunity of establishing themselves at a level that has significant power?

  2. In the event of UKIP AMs being elected in May and having to work together as a group it will be interesting to see how they operate. Will there be tension between the "close the Assembly down brigade" and the "how do we make it work minority". Will the anti Assembly gang just take their pay, not turn up and use it as a platform for the "real work in England". Their experience in Europe with splits and defections if repeated in Wales will be well reported even with our limited press.

  3. Remember Gill was not elected as their leader for Wales, he is appointed by Farage and answerable to him. Their only county councillor in Wales seems to have gone remarkably silent of late.

    1. Don't worry about me Lyn

      I was putting plaid councillors in their place over their hypocrisy in the council chamber just this past Wednesday,

      Thanks for the concern though.

  4. As the only UKIP county councillor in Wales follows this blog can we get some clarity on the referendum. Can we get the official party view of the status of the referendum. In the event of the peoples of these islands voting to remain in the EU will this be regarded as a "once in a lifetime event" and the result will be seen as the definitive view of the citizens of the UK?

    1. You mean just like the result of the referendum where the people of Wales rejected the setting up of the Welsh assembly before their decision was put to one side in favour of putting the subject to another vote until the public voted the way they were supposed to the first time?

      It seems that the definitive view of the Welsh public was overlooked on the first occasion.

      Are further General elections abandoned after they are held so that the electorate can never reverse their decision or voting majority so that one party rules for ever?

      One would assume that referendums on a variety of subjects are held according to public clamour and that will continue to be the case in the future I would guess.

      I suppose that it's called democracy.

    2. The phrase once in a lifetime used so frequently in the recent Scotland referendum was taken to mean once in a generation. In 1979 Wales rejected limited home rule. Eighteen years later that decision was overturned by the electorate.Fourteen years after that an enhanced form of devolution was endorsed by a referendum. About once every generation.

  5. Interesting to read about the split between the Leader of UKIP and the leader of the the UKIP parliamentary wing over voting. After calling for a new leader Carswell commented on the claims made by Farage about rigging of postal votes. Funny that all those allegations about rigged votes have gone away and not been followed up.