The result for the Cardiff South and Penarth by-election,
|Cardiff South and Penarth by-election, 15 November 2012|
|Labour Co-op||Stephen Doughty||9,193||47.3||+8.4|
|Liberal Democrat||Bablin Molik||2,103||10.8||-11.5|
|Plaid Cymru||Luke Nicholas||1,854||9.5||+5.3|
|Socialist Labour||Andrew Jordan||235||1.2||N/A|
|Labour Co-op hold||Swing||8.41% swing C to Lab|
Lab maj 5,334 (27.44%)
|General Election 2010: Cardiff South and Penarth|
|Labour Co-op||Alun Michael||17,262||38.9||-7.7|
|Liberal Democrat||Dominic Hannigan||9,875||22.3||+2.4|
|Plaid Cymru||Farida Aslam||1,851||4.2||-1.1|
|Labour Co-op hold||Swing||-6.0|
Alas my prediction was off mainly because I over estimated the Plaid vote and under estimated the others
Labour – 51%
Conservative – 22%
Plaid – 13%
Lib Dem – 6%
UKIP – 6%
Though Plaid can take some comfort in being the only major party to increase their vote in a low turnout although the Greens saw the biggest increase number wise..
The Libdems can be relieved to retain third place but three years ago they would have probably expected to win a by-election in a constituency such as Cardiff South and Penarth and the future looks bleak for the Cardiff Central seat which thy currently hold.
Gareth Hughes in his preview of the seat referred to Stephan Doughty the now Labour MP as being
"straight from central casting for Labour. Young, male, on message and from the third sector. In his case boss of Oxfam Cymru.To which I posted the comment
"More like Central Cloning".