Friday, 16 November 2012

Cardiff South and Penarth by-election


The result for the Cardiff South and Penarth by-election,
Cardiff South and Penarth by-election, 15 November 2012
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Co-opStephen Doughty9,19347.3+8.4
ConservativeCraig Williams3,85919.9-8.4
Liberal DemocratBablin Molik2,10310.8-11.5
Plaid CymruLuke Nicholas1,8549.5+5.3
UKIPSimon Zeigler1,1796.1+3.5
GreenAnthony Slaughter8004.1+2.9
Socialist LabourAndrew Jordan2351.2N/A
CommunistRobert Griffiths2131.1+0.7
Turnout19,43625.7%-38.2
Labour Co-op holdSwing8.41% swing C to Lab


Lab maj 5,334 (27.44%)




General Election 2010: Cardiff South and Penarth[16][17]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Co-opAlun Michael17,26238.9-7.7
ConservativeSimon Hoare12,55328.3+4.4
Liberal DemocratDominic Hannigan9,87522.3+2.4
Plaid CymruFarida Aslam1,8514.2-1.1
UKIPSimon Zeigler1,1452.6+1.2
IndependentGeorge Burke6481.5+1.5
GreenMatthew Townsend5541.2-0.6
ChristianClive Bate2850.6+0.6
CommunistRobert Griffiths1960.4+0.4
Majority4,70910.6
Turnout44,36960.2+2.0
Labour Co-op holdSwing-6.0

Alas my prediction was off mainly because I over estimated the Plaid vote and under estimated the others 




Labour – 51%
Conservative  22%
Plaid – 13%
Lib Dem – 6%
UKIP – 6%
Others -4%


Though Plaid can take some comfort in being the only major party to increase their vote in a low turnout although the Greens saw the biggest increase number wise.. 

The Libdems can be relieved to retain third place but three years ago they would have probably expected to win a by-election in a constituency such as Cardiff South and Penarth and the future looks bleak for the Cardiff Central seat which thy currently hold.


Gareth Hughes in his preview of the seat  referred to  Stephan Doughty the now Labour MP as being 


 "straight from central casting for Labour.  Young, male, on message and from the third sector. In his case boss of Oxfam Cymru.
To which I posted the comment


"More like Central Cloning".


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